More Calling AL-02 ‘Highly Competitive’
Similar to what the Cook Report has recently done, CQ Politics has changed its rating on the race in the 2nd Congressional District from Safe Republican to Leans Republican, “denoting a highly competitive contest.”
The change is “the result of seven-term Republican Rep. Terry Everett’s surprise decision to retire after eight terms and the emergence of Bobby Bright — mayor of the state capital of Montgomery, the 2nd District’s major population center — as the likely Democratic nominee.”
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If there needed to be any more proof, this once again reinforces that a Wiregrass candidate is best for the GOP. Bright will be the strongest Democrat in years, and he will pull significantly more of the tri-county vote in the general election than any of the GOP candidates from Montgomery. Quite frankly, Bright will get more votes just in the city of Montgomery in this race than a Montgomery Republican will get in the entire three county metro area. He could come out of the tri-county area with an insurmountable lead IF the Republican nominee is not from the Wiregrass. A Wiregrass Republican will be able to counter Bright’s big city lead with overwhelming numbers from the south end of the district - and win.
A Wiregrass candidate just makes more sense for the Republicans.
Comment by Wiregrass — March 26, 2008 @ 1:58 pm
Will Alabama trade-in a Democrat up north (Cramer) for a Republican? … and will we trade-in a Republican down south (Everett) for a Democrat?
[Butler and Bright, maybe?]
Comment by Cloverdale — March 27, 2008 @ 9:46 am
Bright can beat Love or Grimes in Montgomery - look at what happened to Scott Simmons - those are the eact same voters that would go for Love or grimes, and Bright beat Simmons 60% -30%. So the key to the GOP holding this seat is the Wiregrass. Harri Anne Smith makes more sense than Love or Grimes with David Woods a possibility due to his roots in the Wiregrass. If Love or Grimes is the nominee Bright will carry the tri-county area - his margin in Montgomery assures that. He would probably do it if Smith or Woods is the nominee also, but Smith in particular would be far stronger in the Wiregrass than Love or Grimes.
Comment by Rational analysis — March 27, 2008 @ 9:55 am
Folks - you need to calm down and realize that the entire County of Montgomery is NOT in the 2d district. It splits. And what makes you think Bright will get ANY votes in vote rich Autauga and Elmore counties? You are placing too much emphasis on the City of Montgomery as a voting block in this race.
Comment by GOPer — March 27, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
GOPer - it is true that not all of Montgomery is in the 2nd district. But that is NOT good news for Montgomery-based Republicans . . .
You see, Wynlakes, Arrowhead, Sturbridge, etc. - the richest GOP areas in Montgomery - are all in the 3rd district - not the contested 2nd. So Bright actually GAINS strength from the way the lines are drawn.
Bright beat Simmons by 10,000 votes with a small turnout - his 2-1 margin would have been bigger in total vote margin with a presidential election-year turnout. He could come out of the Montgomery area of District 2 with an even bigger headstart on the Republican nominee. It is very possible that he could leave the tri-county area with a lead, given that Autauga has a larger minority population than most other 2nd district counties and GOP candidates from Montgomery may not be able to recoup their deficit from Montgomery in the metro area.
As an aside, even with a great deal of growth in recent years Autauga and Elmore are not “vote-rich.” Autauga’s population, for example, is only about 55,000 (half the size of Etowah or Calhoun counties, which no one would call “vote-rich.”)
That leaves the Wiregrass to decide this race. And remember, a Wiregrass candidate can probably come close to Simmons’ 30% in Montgomery, so the strong Wiregrass base demographically makes more sense in finding the strongest candidate against Bright.
Comment by Demographics, historical trends, etc. — March 27, 2008 @ 2:33 pm
I just checked - actually Autauga only has 43,000 people. In fact so-called “vote-rich” Autauga and Elmore have less people than Dale and Houston counties. About 25,000 less.
Comment by Demographics, historical trends, etc. — March 27, 2008 @ 2:38 pm
They are vote rich in Republican votes. And recall that when Bright ran last, he didn’t have a big D by his name as he will this time. I do agree that the Wiregrass plays a great role in this - possibly bigger than the Montgomery area. But I don’t know that Bright will necessarily trounce a GOPer from Montgomery. I do understand your point though and it certainly has merit. I just hope a very strong Wiregrass candidate for the GOP emerges…so far I don’t see one.
Comment by GOPer — March 27, 2008 @ 4:04 pm
GOPer - I see your point as well, although I still would not call Autauga and Elmore “vote-rich” for Republicans - check out the per capita income levels for those counties, their educational levels, etc. - they are not hard-core GOP counties.. And Bright would not trouce a Republican from Montgomery in the tri-county - I just think it is very possible and in fact likely he (Bright) will come out of the tri-county area with a lead, making the Wiregrass the vital area in this race.
Comment by Demographics, historical trends, etc. — March 28, 2008 @ 10:54 am
Well there is no doubt the Wiregrass will be vital to who wins the next Congressional race.
Comment by GOPer — March 28, 2008 @ 12:57 pm