Multiple sources tell the Parlor that Republican real estate attorney Stan McDonald is passing on the race for Alabama’s 5th Congressional District.
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Alabama Line |
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Strong incumbent did not get a stiff challenge.
(D) Vivian Figures (19-1)
If Sessions had vulnerability, it was not to Figures.
(R) Jay Love (12-13)
Looks close. GOPers often boosted in prez election years.
(D) Bobby Bright (13-12)
Montgomery Mayor is Dems' best shot at the seat in a generation.
(R) Mike Rogers (1-4)
The power of incumbency and huge warchest should send him back to DC.
(D) Josh Segall (4-1)
Strong campaign. 2nd largest black population in any GOP House district.
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-99)
Wins in a cakewalk.
(D) Nick Sparks (>100-1)
Maybe another Sparks could make this competitive.
(D) Parker Griffith (9-11)
The favorite but will have to outperform the top of the ticket.
(R) Wayne Parker (11-9)
Hopes third time for the seat will be the charm.
(D) Lucy Baxley (17-18)
Former LG has name ID edge in a race that is a virtual tossup.
(R) Twinkle Cavanaugh (18-17)
Has firepower, and the R gets a boost in prez election year.
(R) Greg Shaw (2-3)
Some contributors felt he should be listed as an even stronger favorite.
(D) Deborah Bell Paseur (3-2)
Roundtable divided on her capacity to surprise.
The Alabama Line and its contents are the creation of Doc’s Political Parlor, reflect consensus from insiders and well-connected folks on both sides of the aisle, and will be updated as conditions change. These odds are meant to inform, entertain, and provoke, not to serve as actual means for losing money. Permission granted to use this material if PoliticalParlor.net is cited as the source.
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That leaves Wayne Parker in the race. He came close to beating Bud in 94, in an open seat race he should be strong.
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 9:37 am
Is it more good news for Butler? Is the result of behind the scene pressure being applied to clear the field of candidates with strong party credentials?
Comment by or... — March 21, 2008 @ 10:10 am
Now we will have a Democrat in the Republican Party. A party switch a week before he announces does not a true Repulican make. Isn’t this a bit opportunistic?
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 10:43 am
A democrat state senator in the Republican primary who was an Al Gore delegate. If I remember correctly his buddy Al did not do so well in the 5th district in the general election, wonder how a Gore delegate will do in a Republican primary?
Truth is stranger than fiction!
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 12:28 pm
Seems as if the race is setting up as a race between a Reagan conservative (Wayne Parker) and the candidadate of the country club (Butler.
Wayne Parker will be the next Congressman from CD 5
Comment by John Killian — March 21, 2008 @ 12:39 pm
Does Wayne have a job? Him never having had one hurt him in ‘94.
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 2:18 pm
Haha of course he has a job. That’s why every single article describes him as an “advertising executive.” You usually need to be employed to be an executive.
Comment by PoliticalJunkie — March 21, 2008 @ 2:34 pm
How old is Sen. Butler? He has been at this game a long time.
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 6:34 pm
I think he is 64. Not a spring chicken.
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 8:16 pm
too old to be there long enough to be effective and build up seniority. He is 5 years older than Congressman Cramer. Who trades in a perfectly good car for an older less effective one? This will be an interesting race, but serving (if you can call it that) in the do nothing raise your own pay state senate then switch parties seemsbkike morebof a way to embarrass yourself than get to congress.
Comment by Anonymous — March 21, 2008 @ 8:38 pm
It is my understanding that Stan is dropping out of the race to support Wayne Parker. This is a pretty good move in my opinion; they are both great guys but Parker has the better Name ID, something that is essential in a short race like this one (only 2 months to the June Primary). I’d have to say that Parker would be the favorite to be the Republican nominee. Tom Butler is a nice guy, but he CAN NOT win a Republican Primary.
Comment by The Sandman — March 23, 2008 @ 12:03 am
From what I’m gathering, (with Bud’s apparent out-of-the-blue retirement) I’m thinking Wayne Parker’s been working with Bud to basically walk right into his congressional seat. I hear Bud’s been buddying up to Parker and that completely ticks me off. There’s an ethical way to leave office and then there’s the “good ole boy” way. One thing that really stands out about Tom Butler is you’ll never find him acting deceitfully. He’s always been honest in his convictions and honest with the public. I think winning the Primary will be a tough job, but he can do it. I completely understand why he would be switching parties. Being a democrat in ALABAMA is not the same as being a democrat on a federal level. He hasn’t NEEDED to change parties on a state level, but would have to on a federal level because of the vast difference on federal issues and voting.
Comment by D2 Voter — March 24, 2008 @ 3:26 pm