Early Look at AL-05 Field

The scoop – Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker won every county in the district in 1998 and 2006. She has roots in Morgan and Lauderdale and has a network of grassroots supporters throughout the district. Long thought to be eyeing the Cramer seat, this will no doubt be her best chance. Her profile as a blue-collar, populist with bipartisan appeal is ideal for a general election and a strong female candidate is tough to beat in a Democratic primary. She’s not known as a prolific fundraiser, but should be able to raise the money to compete in the primary or general. Also in a district with the population so centered in Huntsville/Madison, her lack of roots there could give some pause.

The scoop – For a man who didn’t run for his first office until 2004 and who won his first election 16 months ago, state Senator Parker Griffith is on the fast track to the highest echelons of political power. The wealthy doctor and developer represents the Huntsville heart of the 5th CD and has been talked about as a candidate for statewide office even prior to his 2006 election to the state senate. However a 2010 bid for Lieutenant Governor might get passed over for this unexpected congressional vacancy. Griffith could probably outraise the field in the primary or general even without his considerable bank account (from which he is thought to be willing to write himself a check or two). However, in a district that prizes seniority and clout, is a 66-year old freshman congressman a good fit? And does a man of forthright ambition who already envisions himself being an LG or even Governor or Senator, really want to be 1 of 435?

The scoop – The ex-Heflin Chief of Staff and Dem uber-consultant has long been linked to this seat. Though he’s not without his intraparty detractors, there are also those who think of him as among the smartest, savviest, most capable Dems around. He’s got connections locally, statewide, and in DC and has the potential to bring in a lot of money, but a lobbyist/consultant is not an ideal profile for a candidate in an electorate hungry for change. And can he really compete with budding superstars like the Parkers? If the top two take a pass, Raby could become a real contender, but at this point it’s hard to see where his political oxygen will come from.

The scoop – While each is popular in his or her district (though Hinshaw’s hands have been full with legal matters), none has a profile outside of his district or the obvious ability to develop one in a matter of weeks. All would be credible candidates, but if one is the Democratic nominee expect some serious heartburn in the halls of the DCCC.

The scoop – Assuming the veteran Democratic legislator does switch parties, it is far from certain how he’ll be received by his new fellow Republicans. As one of only three state senators who actually live in the district, he has to be taken seriously. But can the sixty-something pharmacist really wage the type of campaign it will take to win a congressional primary, much less a general election? What will the Republican primary electorate think of his years of Democratic activism? A Butler candidacy certainly has potential, but there are many questions that will have to be answered.

The scoop – The attorney and once and future candidate seemed to be the first out of the gate on the GOP side. With his brother-in-law (Robert Aderholt, R – Haleyville) representing the neighboring 4th CD, we have to assume McDonald will have access to at least some Republican powerbrokers both locally and in DC. In a district so locally Democratic, Republican primary voters will disproportionately come out of Madison County – a fact that would give a candidate like MdDonald an edge over one from, let’s say…Athens. Supposedly he has money he could use to jumpstart a campaign, but have his candidate skills really changed so much from his political losses in the late 80s / early 90s?

The scoop – No potential candidate has better or deeper GOP ties than Mo Brooks. In a low-turnout, Madison County dominated primary or runoff, Mo Brooks would have a solid base of votes. But can the 2006 LG also-ran raise serious money and expand his loyal base into a majority? He finished a strong first in that LG primary among voters in this district, but this time around he won’t have the geographic advantage he had then. Plus, Brooks has never been the favorite of the establishment power brokers. He’ll certainly be a factor if he runs and maybe even the first place finisher in a crowded primary, but he’ll have his hands full cracking 50%.

The scoop – Haven’t we been down this road before? The former Shelby Chief of Staff carpet-bagged his way into a runoff loss in the 2002 open seat on the other end of the state. Now he lives in the 5th with the senior senator still in his corner and there isn’t a Jo Bonner in the race this time. He has his own money this time too, but his willingness to spend it is yet to be determined. But with shallow roots in the district and a loss on his resume, he’ll have work to do to become a factor.