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A few thoughts on the potential candidates listed in the AL-05 Big List. If you have ever thought about running for the seat, now is the time to think harder about it.
On the left…
The Decatur Daily (link for subscribers) said this morning that several area Democrats said that Sen. Parker Griffith will be running. The physician is believed to be able to drop a lot of his own money in the race, certainly a plus especially given the short lead time. He’s from Huntsville, the district’s largest metro area, which is a plus. He won’t be the youngest candidate by far, as he is some years older than Bud Cramer. Some are easily skeptical that he will actually commit to this race believing that he has other plans (possibly Lt. Gov. in 2010).
Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker is well-respected and would likely be a strong candidate for the Democrats if she runs. She won every county in the district when she defeated Republican incumbent Pat Duncan for Auditor in 1998 and again when she defeated Republican Perry Hooper for PSC Commissioner in 2006. Her considerations will include whether she would be ready to uproot her family and whether she can line up campaign financing in the short time available.
Steve Raby was Sen. Howell Heflin’s Chief of Staff back in the day, and the Parlor hears that he is considering a run. One Parlor source believes that Raby could tap financial backers quickly if he wanted to run, but another is concerned that he might be too close to the 2-year college scandal.
Rep. Randy Hinshaw reportedly has some interest, but I would bet that he decides to wait. Rep. John Robinson was quoted by AP as saying he had some interest, but who doesn’t? Cramer’s Chief of Staff Carter Wells could possibly run a strong campaign particularly if it became clear that he is Cramer’s blessed successor.
On the right…
Democratic State Senator Tom Butler is one of the so-called dissident Democrats that caucuses with Republicans in the state Senate’s minority coalition. From what I hear, I believe it very likely that he will run for this seat as a Republican, but I have been unable to nail down confirmation. He also is older than the retiring Bud Cramer.
The Parlor hears that Madison attorney Stan McDonald, brother-in-law to U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt (R – Haleyville) has quietly been laying the groundwork for a run like this for some time, waiting for his opportunity. I trust he hears the knocking.
Many expect Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks to run. One GOP’er assured the Parlor that Brooks would take the nomination if he ran, but another said that the former state senator was a “15%er” – someone who could not attract beyond his base when he ran for higher office. Coincidentally (or not), 15% was about what he drew in his 3rd place finish in the GOP primary for Lt. Governor behind Luther Strange and George Wallace in 2006. Little question that he has a committed base.
Tom Young, Sen. Richard Shelby’s former Chief of Staff, ran for AL-01 in 2002 to succeed Rep. Sonny Callahan, and lost in the primary to eventual winner Jo Bonner. He now lives in AL-05 and no doubt has connections from his days as Shelby’s CoS. We hear that he has his own deep pockets and has the means to raise more if he decides to run.
We are not hearing much about the likelihood of freshman state Senator Arthur Orr and Madison County Commissioner Dale Strong running, other than that they are mentioned as potential candidates, Orr in particular.
Republican Attorney Ray McKee is the FairTax advocate who was set to challenge incumbent Bud Cramer and who will undoubtedly be pushed aside in the rush for what has now become an open seat.
The AL-05 Big List should be a good resource to check for the latest.
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Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
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GO PARKER GRIFFITH GO!!!!
Susan Parker is the strongest candidate by far. Griffith is in his late 60’s and will gain NO seniority in the Congress.
[...] Parlor has assembled a “Big List” of possible contenders with some commentary here. Sphere: Related Content Filed under: US Politics, Alabama Politics, 2008 Campaign || [...]
My vote is going to Ray McKee. I’m all for the Fair Tax plus I’m tired of career politicians. I want someone in Congress who is there to represent the people and bring money back to us – that’s what will help this economy. Plus McKee has strong issues on the illegal immigrant and war on terror dilemmas that we are facing now!
Ray McKee was the ONLY person who had the courage to run against Bud Cramer BEFORE he decided not to seek re-election. It’s funny to me now how all of these professional politicians are coming out of the woodwork now that Bud Cramer is not an obstacle. Where were they a few months ago? I think Ray McKee is for the people, not for his own power in Washington like the other contenders are.
[...] Republican Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks is definitely in, we hear in the Parlor. And speaking of which, a reader pointed out that while some might call Mo Brooks “a 15%er,” his numbers in this district were quite good when he ran for Lt. Governor against Luther Strange and George Wallace, Jr. in 2006. He pulled over 44% of the vote and easily finished first among voters in this district. He finished third overall among all state voters. [...]