New Alabama Line
Many thanks to the elected officials, the party insiders, and the well-connected on both sides of the aisle who offer us a collective take on what the odds are of various candidates and potential candidates being elected. An arrow by a name indicates up or down movement in the numbers for that person since the Alabama Line was last updated.
For reference, the previous Alabama Line may be found here.
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Alabama Line |
Senate Line
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Would take a Larry Craig-type revelation to shake up this race.
(D) Vivian Figures (33-1)
Is anything shaking in this race at all?
(D) David Marsh (OFF)
Stale rumors here or there, but we haven’t seen that they have legs.
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Pete Johnson (OFF)
Said August 3 that he will not run. (B’ham News, 8/4/07)
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
AL-1 Line
(R) Jo Bonner (1-29)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (>100-1)
Charge of soliciting more than votes gives him the longest of odds.
AL-2 Line
(D) Bobby Bright (3-2) NEW
Shoo-in for Democratic nomination, then the task toughens.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (3-1) NEW
Outright win only thing to keep her out of a GOP primary run-off.
(R) Jay Love (4-1) NEW
Easily the most viable of the Montgomery-area GOP candidates.
(R) David Woods (20-1) NEW
Is he crazy like a Fox-20 President?
(R) David Grimes (30-1) NEW
Showing least energy among those with some name ID.
(R) Craig Schmidtke (90-1) NEW
Oral surgeon will be able to numb the pain of loss.
(D) William Boyd (>100-1) NEW
Montgomery Mayoral hopeful will lose to Bright again.
(R) John W. Martin(>100-1) NEW
Army veteran will struggle to be competitive.
(R) Terry Everett (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement Sept. 26.
AL-3 Line
(R) Mike Rogers (1-11)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
(D) Josh Segall (19-1) NEW
District & early signs of professionalism up his chances a bit.
AL-4 Line
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-29)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1)
It’s a sleeper race, and it’s still snoozing.
AL-5 Line
(D) Bud Cramer (1-12)
Can’t be too comfortable knowing GOP Pres nominee will carry district.
(R) Ray McKee (33-1)
The district gives him slightly better odds than other House challengers.
AL-6 Line
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-70)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
AL-7 Line
(D) Artur Davis (1-49)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems’ leading lights.
Governor Line (2010)
(D) Jim Folsom (6-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Bradley Byrne (7-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
(R) Troy King (17-2)
Top-ranking GOP candidate. Fierce detractors and fierce supporters.
(D) Artur Davis (9-1)
Little doubt that the popular Dem is considering a run.
(R) Mike Hubbard (13-1)
Party chair has nice launch pad but not committing to run.
(R) Jack Hawkins (15-1)
Transparent interest, would Riley’s blessing be boon or bane?
(R) Kay Ivey (17-1)
Hitched her wagon to the wrong presidential candidate.
(D) Seth Hammett (18-1)
Maybe ties to 2-year college scandal are a little too close
(R) Tim James (19-1)
Announced, but politically inexperienced & has GOP detractors.
(R) Beth Chapman (20-1)
Too crowded. No reason for the SoS not to wait.
(D) Ron Sparks (20-1)
With Folsom & Davis obvious Dem frontrunners, he’ll likely pass.
(D) Mike Dow (22-1)
Too early to dismiss him from what may be his last shot.
(R) Tony Petelos (22-1)
Hoover Mayor focusing on re-election first.
(R) Luther Strange (22-1)
Might be more likely to run if King passes on this race.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(R or I) Stan Pate (75-1)
Rumor says GOP curmudgeon considering. Perhaps as Independent?
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
He gets The Jimmy Rane TreatmentTM (See Rane below)
(L) Loretta Nall (OFF)
Tells the Parlor she won’t run for governor in 2010.
(R) Rob Riley (OFF)
The rumors are stale. Might run for AG.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (OFF)
She’ll be representing CD-2 or tainted by the loss.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
Related Articles:
I am slightly confused by this updated line. Can you provide any explanation for how you arrived at these odds?
The Democratic side seems legitimate. But your Republican side is very confusing. I agree that Chancellor Byrne has done a great job with the 2-year college system, but how does that place him as the Republican front-runner, with odds almost as good as the sitting Democratic Lt. Governor? He has a lot of work to do to transform his current position into a viable run for Chief Executive of the state. Unless you are involved in the community college system, he was your former state senator, or you are a politico, nobody has a clue who he is.
Mike Hubbard, the #2 republican? Here is a question I would like for you to answer – when is the last time a state house minority leader (or majority leader, for that matter) or state party chair (in either race) has parlayed their position into the Governor’s mansion? It just does not happen (for the same reason that Byrne will have trouble). Outside of a 5-block radius of the state capitol, Hubbard’s home district, and key party people, nobody has a clue who Hubbard is. Of course that does not mean that he will not be able to raise money and get name recognition, but until that happens, your analysis is very premature.
While I certainly do not think King has a good chance of winning if he decides to run, at this point he has at least got to be close to Hubbard’s or Byrne’s chances. People know who the AG is. Period.
James above Strange? James is the same guy who received 9% of the vote in the 2002 primary, right? Strange is the same guy who defeated the most famous name in Alabama political history (Wallace), and came within 2% of beating the 2nd most famous name in politics (Folsom) who is currently your front-runner to win the Governor’s race, right?
Strange is the only person (in the Republican field) who has demonstrated an ability to raise a large amount of money, and has name recognition all over the state.
I don’t think Strange is the front-runner (because there is no frontrunner), but I think it is impossible to distinguish between Strange’s, Hubbard’s, King’s, and Byrne’s chances right now.
I would be interested in knowing your methods for arriving at these odds. To me, it seems as if there is no method.
Comment by observer — February 28, 2008 @ 2:33 pm
R) Bradley Byrne (7-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
Sounds like Byrne is using the “Two Year College vein” for political gain, not for any real “reform”.
Lodmell has been “accused” not convicted of solicitation. Just because someone is “accused” doesn’t make them guilty, especially in the great state of Alabama.
Bonner and Aderholt have some “splanning” to do concerning their veto of the Chilrens Health Insurance Plan which left 43 thousand Alabama children without healthcare.
I don’t know who the “elected officials and party insiders” are that contributed to the “Latest Line”, but there is a huge disconnect between their way of thinking and the voters of this state. The voters don’t care about the so called “Two year college scandal”, we care about jobs so we can support our families, access to quality healthcare for everyone and quality public schools and affordable college cost. We also care about our infrastructure (bridges for one) and improving the quality of life for those citizens living in the Black Belt without running water in 2008, just to name a few.
Comment by bhmhomeboy — February 28, 2008 @ 2:36 pm
I agree with comment one about Bradley Byrne. He might be an insider’s favorite, but is not well-known around the state. He will have to do a lot of work to win the nomination. Certainly not impossible (Riley and Big Luther had similar work cut out for them), but it is far from clear that he has what it takes to win a state-wide primary. I would say Luther’s chances are better than Bradley’s.
Comment by ptclearer — February 28, 2008 @ 3:34 pm
Byrne vs. Strange- let’s look at it for a while.(for objective purposes, I am a Republican who would like for another potential candidate to win besides Byrne or Strange, but I digress).
Byrne has successfully begun turning around the two-year college system and has a solid record as a conservative state senator. While he may be a relative unknown outside the Gulf Coast and Montgomery, he has a much better chance than does
Strange, who ran the best adveritsing and PR campaign of the election season in 2006. He did beat George Wallace, Jr. but he has done little else than running a losing campaign for Lieutenant Governor.
So while the conventional wisdom may be that the business community would rally around Strange, Byrne has an easier case to make for his election.
That being said, I would like Troy King to be our nominee.
Comment by Anonymous — February 28, 2008 @ 4:30 pm
ny friend bhmhomeboy - It is waay to soon for anybody to be consider a “frontrunner” with the election two years away, so don’t get too upset at what others are thinking at this point. It will change for the “political pundits.” They know no loyalty to anyone, and politicians with half a brain know it. Take the exercise for what it is a bit of fun prognostication.
If you don’t believe there’s reform going on in the two-year system, you haven’t been talking to many worker-bee level people in the two-year system.
Let’s see “jobs” - which state entity is in a better position to make people’s lives better by educating and training them for the jobs of the future if it’s run efficiently, honestly, with proper financial controls and does what it’s supposed to be doing?
“Healthcare” -Which entity is going to provide you with the trained nurses to give you the quality healthcare you need?
“Quality Public Schools” - Which entity is working to keep kids who are dropping out in some form of school or training so they don’t become the “lost children” of society, so they have the chance to be productive citizens.
“Affordable college costs” - Let’s see what’s the best value in education in Alabama that gives kids who can’t start off going to Auburn or Alabama a chance to nonetheless get there if they choose. Which entity gives kids that just aren’t mature enough yet a chance to thrive in a smaller class environment at an at least manageable cost for their families or themselves?
“Quality of life” - Let’s see, by educating people, giving them access to better jobs, working to make sure every individual in this state has the opportunity to meet their God-given potential and not being content to just let the horrible status-quo in this state that has left at a minimum a third of the state functionaly illiterate, I’d say you ought to be pulling for the success of the two-year system.
Think where this state would be if the system had lived up to its potential and been doing its job all along. Not everyone in the state wants everyone else to move ahead, it limits their pool of cheap labor, forcing them to pay higher wages to compete and if folk in this state become educated what does it mean to those politicians that have made their living by helping to keep people ignorant?
I don’t personally care who runs the two-year system as long as it is run with integrity and does what it is supposed to do, and neither should you. There are some fine, quality people in the two-year system who have struggled in oblivion to do the right things through the years and worked to change people’s lives in the small ways they could. Ask them how different the environment is now.
I can’t spend the time in Alabama any more I’d like to or write as much as I have the last few weeks, but I want all the people of the state to have better lives and not just a few. It sounds like you want that as well. We’re really on the same team.
Until this state moves into the 21st Century and quits caring who gets the credit or who’s to blame and the people of this state start working together for the common good regardless of politics, economic status, race, religion or anything else, Alabama will never live up to the potential its people, who are a good people, have. I think it’s possible and there are people on both sides of the aisle trying to move that direction - truth is those folks get as much flack from their own parties as they get from the other side. People in positions of power simply do not like change, and it doesn’t matter what party label they’re wearing.
Comment by Helen Hammons — February 28, 2008 @ 5:43 pm
I wonder if potential gubernatorial candidate Bradley Byrne would agree not to solicit or accept campaign contributions from the recipients of the no-bid contracts being doled out at Post-secondary these days?
Comment by anonymous — February 28, 2008 @ 6:52 pm
Helen, you said:
If you don’t believe there’s reform going on in the two-year system, you haven’t been talking to many worker-bee level people in the two-year system.
The Two Year System is fine and was fine until Republicans started a scandal for political gain. There is nothing wrong with the Two Year system, that is why Republicans want to mess it up too.
You are correct in your assertion that we both want what is best for ALL the people and not SOME of the people in Alabama. And I agree that it won’t change until the people in charge start caring about ” we the people” more than they care about their political party.
PS: Tuition is being raised at Alabama and Auburn and most other State schools. Pell grants and other student aide have been cut on the federal level, the middle class can no longer afford to send their students to State Institutions of higher learning.
Have you noticed the price of gasoline lately? It’s a good thing there are no jobs because people couldn’t afford to get to work. If food prices keep going up we aren’t going to be able to afford to eat either.
Comment by bhmhomeboy — February 28, 2008 @ 10:32 pm
Dear anonymous, FYI, Since this has been brought up before I checked with DPE last month on what was to be one of my last trips to Montgomery.
From May 2007 to 30 January, 2008 a check with the two-year system showed two no-bid contracts from the Dept. of Postsecondary Education. One was to a Dr. W. Donald Crump in the amount of $22,000, effective 02/01/08 to 06/30/08. The stated purpose -”Complete the implementation of a comprehensive College Review Model which will serve as an evaluation instrument of two-year College Performance; Dr. Crump was selected because of his expertise in educational management plans and strategic planning.”
The second was to Hand Arendall, effective 10/01/07 through 09/30/08 for $100,000. The stated purpose - “Legal and consulting services; this firm was selected because of their particular expertise in and knowledge of education law.” With lawsuits flying at DPE right and left is there any wonder they need lawyers. But it would be nice if that money could be spent on adult education or workforce development.
At the time there were two pending Workforce Development contracts one with the Univ. of Alabama and one with Auburn University - Montgomery. Those contracts with other state agencies are not required to be bid.
I do not have time to check into all the contracts let by each college, there are plenty of folks, including yourself, who should easily be able to get that information. The end of February report is available here http://extranet.acs.cc.al.us/contractsurvey/contractreport.pdf and you should be able to get past reports easily from DPE.
Likewise contracts that go through the legislative contract review committee are easily available. I just checked there are none for DPE on the March agenda.
In January there were two, which were selected by RFPs. One was to Sullivan-St. Clair Marketing in Mobile for $100,000 for 2008 and “Will develop and provide a comprehensive, fully
integrated strategic communications plan and
brand identity system to DPE and the Alabama
College System. The Department does not have
sufficient manpower or expertise to accomplish these
projects in a timely manner.”
The second was for $302,000 to CyberBest Technology out of Orlando, FL, selected by RFP as well. This is for “Internet, extranet, intranet development; automation of private licensing process; applications
development. Numerous sill sets are required to
accomplish all tasks. The contract runs from 2/01/08
to 01/31/09 and was to be paid for primarily through Private School License Fees.
Their president, Prasad Valay got his master’s from the University of South Alabama.
It will also be interesting to see if Ernst & Young ponies up any money for their nice contract looking at Bishop State. They got $250,000 out of the chancellor’s discretionary fund to sort out the financial control mess at Bishop State. Consultant James L. Fisher got $50,000 plus expenses to review college management.
That should get you started on tracking Mr. Byrne’s political contributions. Someone else will have to follow up from here. I no longer am able to spend much time on this stuff, but wanted to make what I had found available.
People have the right to know where taxpayer’s money is being spent, no matter who’s spending it. Happy tracking.
Bhamboy - on tuition, that’s exactly why the two-year colleges are so important. They give a lot of people the chance to move up who would not be able to do so otherwise. You and I will have to simply disagree on whether or not the system was adequately doing its job before now, and if you want to lay blame there’s plenty to go around, but now people should come together and make sure it becomes the best system in the country. That’s in the best interest of all the people in the state.
Comment by Helen Hammons — February 29, 2008 @ 12:05 am
Even if one concedes that Barack Obama will be the next president (which I fully expect, as an Obama supporter), Davis would have a very difficult time building a statewide organization for a general election. Unless he had a big time national platform of his own… like being the Attorney General of the United States. It seems like an odd move, but it makes sense the more you think about it. Classmates in law school, Davis is now considered the most powerful centrist black voice in the Democratic Party, he was an early and enthusiastic supporter of Barack. Think Jack and Bobby part II. Just an idea.
Comment by SamfordDem — February 29, 2008 @ 12:31 am
Dunno about Davis having problems building a state wide organization. He can inherit Obama’s and this election cycle start putting up generic “Davis for Alabama” signs ,hit the state wide rubber chicken circuit and generally exploit the positive view Alabama media has of him.
Main draw back I see is whether he is willing to fight Folsom (a fight which also increases his state wide stature) in the primary. There maybe inducements to get one to drop out.
Comment by waltm — February 29, 2008 @ 8:11 am
Danny - I think your lines are very thought provoking. The line on the district 2 congressional race is probably as close to the actual positioning of the candidates as can be done at this time. I do think Tim James is better than a 19-1 shot in the Governor’s race (in contest to what was written above) due to his early entry, his personal magnetism, and his ability to spend on his campaign. He will be stronger than in 2002 and his poor showing in that race - while pertinent - is not an accurate representation of his vote-drawing potential. Remember, he was out front and on the right side of Amendment One in 2003 which came after the earlier run.
Good job on the numbers, Danny.
Comment by Anonymous — February 29, 2008 @ 8:36 am
Helen, I hate to see you waste your time trying to reason with Homey. He is better at turning a blind eye to facts than anyone I have ever seen. Anyone who can claim there has been no problem with the 2 year system is either totally ignorant of the facts or intentionally ignoring them. He claims that the rooting out of corruption in the 2 year system is a ploy to destroy the system. When I have asked for specifics for this allegation, he refuses to provide any.
Comment by Margaret — February 29, 2008 @ 8:49 am
Maggie, Maggie, Maggie,
I don’t know why you feel the need to resort to personal attacks and insults when you refer to me simply because I disgree with your premise that Republicans are “rooting out corruption in the Two Year college system, especially in light of the information provided in post #8. A lot of the money being spent on consultants could be spent on students.
It is my opinion that Republicans aren’t “rooting out corruption” but using the 2 year college system for political gain.
Maggie I don’t know what kind of “proof” you asking me to provide. You can’t deny that Democrats, Women, minorities, and a few Republicans who didn’t tow the party line have been investigated, or indicted.
This is what I am refering to I say rooting out the corruption is a ploy.
Have a nice day!
Comment by Anonymous — February 29, 2008 @ 9:51 am
Regarding comment #1…
observer wrote, “Can you provide any explanation for how you arrived at these odds?”
Glad to do what I can…
observer wrote:
I think it is impossible to distinguish between Strange’s, Hubbard’s, King’s, and Byrne’s chances right now.
Well, let’s examine the tea leaves.
Strange’s chances of winning the governorship are not as high in the Alabama Line as the others you mention because many do not believe that he is actually running for it. There is definitely some speculation that he is running for Attorney General. You don’t have good chances of winning if you are not running. If he indicated that he was definitely running, his odds would no doubt go up.
Hubbard dropped a little on the list for the same reason. While he may run, he has not yet indicated that he will, and some who contributed to the Line believe it unlikely he will.
King is the second Republican on the list at 17-2, i.e. 8.5 - 1. (Commenter “observer” mistakenly believed King was behind Hubbard.) Some thought King had self-inflicted wounds that should drop him lower. Others noted that he has a core that are solidly in his corner, and missteps to this point would have more potential to hurt him if the election were in 2008 instead of 2010. He is the highest ranking GOP elected official in the state who might run and, as “observer” says, people know who he is. Some made the case that he should be tied with Byrne as a frontrunner, but one gave Byrne the edge because Baldwin and Mobile Counties can be so vital to Republicans in a statewide race, and that’s Byrne’s area.
Byrne’s profile is rising, his work in the two-year system plays to the image of the good-guy gunslinger who cleans up the town, and that will probably only increase because that story is not nearly played out. Plus, he clearly does seem to be thinking about running. As one contributer noted (paraphrased), “His job would be easier if he said he was not running, and since he has not said it, we have to assume he’s thinking about it.” I don’t recall anyone in the roundtable that suggested anyone besides Byrne as top of the GOP list right now.
All the leading GOP candidates have some reason why they might not be a frontrunner. (One Republican contributor even suggested that Folsom and Artur Davis should be ahead of all GOP candidates.) That said, somebody will win the GOP nomination.
Anonymous in 11, James may surprise us. Contributors to the Line can only know what is known up to this point. Based on the past and what is known to this point, I couldn’t get takers for moving him ahead of other GOP names on the list.
Comment by Danny — February 29, 2008 @ 10:02 am
Danny - I think your numbers are as good as anyone could possibly produce at this date. In addition to my comments above, I would personally put Troy King’s odds at a longer shot even though he has strong name rec and a core of support. He just has such a high ridcule index that I cannot see him winning or ecven coming close. I think he is falling like a rock already. We’ll know more when he starts trying to raise money.
Comment by Anonymous — February 29, 2008 @ 10:29 am
Those who voted for Obama in the presidential primary would not be enough to win in a general election. Many see the Obama/Clinton race as a precursor to a Davis/Folsom race - and there is some truth to that - but I don’t think it’s entirely accurate. Folsom is not nearly as weak a stump speaker as Hillary Clinton; he has charisma to spare and has a folksy manner that appeals strongly to Alabama Democrats (including those who vote Repub in Prez elections). Davis is more intellectual; he is a strong speaker, but he does not possess Obama’s incredible oratory skills. I believe Davis will have a tough time expanding his base into enough votes for a statewide victory. Folsom is a stronger candidate for state office. Davis is a DC guy; that’s not a bad thing. I just think Davis’ strengths would be better suited to an open Senate race in 2010. That said, Davis could beat Troy King. As soon as they started speaking, any ancient racist beliefs that whites are all smarter than blacks would be demolished. I don’t see anyone else making a serious run on the Dem side, barring some unforseen event.
As for the Republicans, I think Byrne, King, James, and Hubbard are all strong possibilities. Right now Byrne is in the pole position, but Tim James could definitely be the strongest dark horse. Strong name ID and deep pockets are always a good combo. He seems like he learned from his mistakes last time. Luther Strange would be the only other person I would say has even a remote shot at getting the nod but I don’t think he’ll run for Gov this time. You folks know more than I do, but I don’t know jack about any of the other candidates and that does not bode well for them.
Comment by SamfordDem — February 29, 2008 @ 11:29 am
Also, I should say I think Josh Segall probably has about as good a chance of winning his district as Bobby Bright. Bright is obviously a big time candidate but his district is a lot tougher. I would put both about 4-1; not likely, but still very possible.
Comment by SamfordDem — February 29, 2008 @ 11:31 am
Hi Homey, A while back you were stating that this was a ploy to destroy the 2 year system. I asked you repeatedly why you were claiming this. I thought you never gave an answer that made sense. It seems to me that paying legislators salaries, regardless of party, race or gender from tax payer money, when they really aren’t doing any work is corruption and a waste of funds that could be better spent serving our students. I think Ken Guin is a perfect example. Also, it seems that all legislators who got hired after they got elected are being scrutinized. As far as Greeson goes, he was a family farmer before he was elected, then ended up with 2 jobs in the 2 year system. Farming is a noble and necessary occupation, but I am not certain how it prepares someone to be an administrator over programs at a college. I am not saying Greeson is guilty of anything, but looking into his job duties and performance doesn’t seem outlandish to me considering all the corruption under the administration of Johnson at the Fire College and the other legislators who have been drawing salaries for little or no work. I am still amazed that you can’t see that the 2 year system had problems when it was such a cash cow for our “public servants.” Also, I am sorry to have upset you, by a pretty tame “personal attack,” but I really do think you ignore any facts that put the Democrats in a bad light. (Will you next claim that the Democratic legislators who own payday loans charging poor people 455% are just helping the needy when they refuse to regulate the business because it will cut into their profits? But I digress.)
It might surprise you that I always vote a split ticket and don’t vote straight Republican. Neither party is totally free of corruption and neither is totally devoid of people who want to help the citizens of Alabama. You will find good and bad in both parties and to always tow a party line means you are missing a lot of what is actually going on.
Comment by Margaret — February 29, 2008 @ 1:38 pm
Maggie, Maggie, Maggie,
Nothing I say will ever make sense to you, so let’s just leave it we agree to disagree, OK?
BTW, your little “tame personal attack” didn’t “upset” me, I just wondered why you feel the need to resort to personal attacks. That’s all.
Have a nice life!
Comment by bhmhomeboy — February 29, 2008 @ 1:56 pm
Spencer Bachus parlayed Rep State Chairman into a Congressional seat.
Jim Gilmore of Virginia parlayed State Chairman into a quick House then Senate then Governor, in I think a 2 year span.
Will not happen with Mike , too many other possible candidates he will not challenge if they run
Comment by Anonymous — February 29, 2008 @ 2:06 pm
Homey, It is fine with me that we disagree, but the teacher in me wants to see people think critically. One way to do that is to ask people to support their statements with evidence or to explain how they came to a conclusion. I don’t think it is asking much to inquire where your ideas are coming from.
Comment by Margaret — February 29, 2008 @ 2:11 pm
I think we will see the odds in the 2nd congresional district for David Woods narrow and those for Jay Love lengthen as the process plays out. Love is having some problems getting the Montgomery power base behind him; if Woods (or for that matter, Grimes) can do what Love has so far failed to accomplish they might get into the runoff with Smith instead of Love. Personally I think Woods has a better chance of nabbing that “Montgomery” spot in the runoff than Grimes.
Comment by Anonymous — February 29, 2008 @ 3:14 pm
Danny, you said:
Byrne’s profile is rising, his work in the two-year system plays to the image of the good-guy gunslinger who cleans up the town, and that will probably only increase because that story is not nearly played out.
Byrne’s is not thought of as a “good-guy gunslinger who clean’s up the town”. A gunslinger yes, but more like a hired gun. The more this story is “played out” ie. dragging 68 year old grandmothers from the shower, the more people see the light. That story may “play out” in some circles, but it most circles that dog won’t hunt.
Comment by bhmhomeboy — February 29, 2008 @ 3:38 pm
Woods doesn’t have a snowballs chance. I would think him and David Grimes should be switched on the line. I also believe giving Bobby Bright so much credit is rather odd. He has that D next to his name and many people will refuse to vote for him because of that. Outside of montgomery in the upper part of the district there is a stigma attached to Bright. I believe he should be about 10-1. I also believe Jay Love should be lower, with such a heavily populated race from montgomery and with them all taking a little from each other, I believe it leaves it wide open for Smith to win outright in a primary. You have 6 candidate. 3 from Montgomery, 3 from the Wiregrass. The three from montgomery have to commpete, two of the candidates in the Wiregrass are barely more than an afterthought already.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — February 29, 2008 @ 5:43 pm
William Wyatt Wallace - I think you may have a point abut Harri Anne winning without a runoff. I am beginning to think that is as real possibility. I think Love is going to sink very fast as this race progresses.
Comment by Anonymous — March 1, 2008 @ 4:19 pm