Confirming what we had heard earlier in the Parlor, former state GOP chair Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh officially announced today that she will run for president of the Alabama Public Service Commission. AP reports, “Cavanaugh announced Monday that she will leave the governor’s staff at the end of March to qualify for the Republican primary.”
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(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Would take a Larry Craig-type revelation to shake up this race.
(D) Vivian Figures (33-1)
Is anything shaking in this race at all?
(D) David Marsh (OFF)
A rumor here, a rumor there, but we haven’t seen that they have legs.
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Pete Johnson (OFF)
Said August 3 that he will not run. (B’ham News, 8/4/07)
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
(R) Jo Bonner (1-29)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (>100-1)
Charge of soliciting more than votes gives him the longest of odds.
(D) Bobby Bright (3-2) NEW
Shoo-in for Democratic nomination, then the task toughens.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (3-1) NEW
Outright win only thing to keep her out of a GOP primary run-off.
(R) Jay Love (4-1) NEW
Easily the most viable of the Montgomery-area GOP candidates.
(R) David Woods (20-1) NEW
Is he crazy like a Fox-20 President?
(R) David Grimes (30-1) NEW
Showing least energy among those with some name ID.
(R) Craig Schmidtke (90-1) NEW
Oral surgeon will be able to numb the pain of loss.
(D) William Boyd (>100-1) NEW
Montgomery Mayoral hopeful will lose to Bright again.
(R) John W. Martin(>100-1) NEW
Army veteran will struggle to be competitive.
(R) Terry Everett (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement Sept. 26.
(R) Mike Rogers (1-11)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
(D) Josh Segall (19-1) NEW
District & early signs of professionalism up his chances a bit.
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-29)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1)
It’s a sleeper race, and it’s still snoozing.
To be updated. See the AL-05 Big List.
(R) Ray McKee (tba)
The only announced challenger when Cramer announced retirement.
(D) Bud Cramer (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement on March 13.
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-70)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
(D) Artur Davis (1-49)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems' leading lights.
(D) Jim Folsom (6-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Bradley Byrne (7-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
(R) Troy King (17-2)
Top-ranking GOP candidate. Fierce detractors and fierce supporters.
(D) Artur Davis (9-1)
Little doubt that the popular Dem is considering a run.
(R) Mike Hubbard (13-1)
Party chair has nice launch pad but not committing to run.
(R) Jack Hawkins (15-1)
Transparent interest, would Riley's blessing be boon or bane?
(R) Kay Ivey (17-1)
Hitched her wagon to the wrong presidential candidate.
(D) Seth Hammett (18-1)
Maybe ties to 2-year college scandal are a little too close
(R) Tim James (19-1)
Announced, but politically inexperienced & has GOP detractors.
(R) Beth Chapman (20-1)
Too crowded. No reason for the SoS not to wait.
(D) Ron Sparks (20-1)
With Folsom & Davis obvious Dem frontrunners, he’ll likely pass.
(D) Mike Dow (22-1)
Too early to dismiss him from what may be his last shot.
(R) Tony Petelos (22-1)
Hoover Mayor focusing on re-election first.
(R) Luther Strange (22-1)
Might be more likely to run if King passes on this race.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(R or I) Stan Pate (75-1)
Rumor says GOP curmudgeon considering. Perhaps as Independent?
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
He gets The Jimmy Rane TreatmentTM (See Rane below)
(L) Loretta Nall (OFF)
Tells the Parlor she won’t run for governor in 2010.
(R) Rob Riley (OFF)
The rumors are stale. Might run for AG.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (OFF)
She’ll be representing CD-2 or tainted by the loss.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
The Alabama Line and its contents are the creation of Doc’s Political Parlor, reflect consensus from insiders and well-connected folks on both sides of the aisle, and will be updated as conditions change. These odds are meant to inform, entertain, and provoke, not to serve as actual means for losing money. Permission granted to use this material if PoliticalParlor.net is cited as the source.
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Remember the Montgomery Independent story that outlined how Andress accompanied Steve Windom on his trip to shakedown Stan Pate?
Comment by BlackJack — February 25, 2008 @ 4:04 pm
She does not have a prayer.
Comment by Anonymous — February 25, 2008 @ 4:13 pm
Just glad its not Kay Ivey!
Comment by ButNotKay! — February 25, 2008 @ 4:34 pm
I agree with Anon #2. If any credible Republican runs against her in a primary she will lose.
And if no Republican challenges her, Lucy will win.
Comment by Bob — February 25, 2008 @ 4:42 pm
I think Lucy wins regardless of who the Repub is. I mean, yes I’ve heard some talk about her physical state being a factor, but when it comes down to it, Twinkle or whoever is the GOP nominee will flub this one up and allow the PSC to be entirely Democratic. Oh joy.
Comment by Terry — February 25, 2008 @ 5:13 pm
I believe Twinkle will be a competitive candidate. Lucy does’nt have the strengh to run.
Comment by Terry — February 25, 2008 @ 5:59 pm
I’m glad Kay Ivey is not running too. I’d hate for Kay to waste her substantial campaign funds on this position. George Wallace will enter the race in April and Twinkle will once again lose a state wide race. Are Dax and company running her campaign?
Comment by Lyn Johnson — February 25, 2008 @ 6:19 pm
I think Lucy has the name strength and the strength of recognition in the state to overcompensate for her lack of physical strength.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — February 25, 2008 @ 7:50 pm
Twinkle wasted so much money when she was chairperson of the Alabama Republican Party that no one with any sense (other than Winton Blount, but I repeat myself) will give her any money. She needs a real job before she “offers up herself for public service.”
Comment by Anonymous — February 25, 2008 @ 8:47 pm
Lucy Baxley will win this race off of name recognition alone. It’s not the U.S. Senate . . . it’s the PSC. Name recognition almost always wins.
Comment by Anonymous — February 25, 2008 @ 9:11 pm
#9 — You don’t know what you’re talking about. Twinkle has always had a reputation among party people as being very frugal with funds. When she was ED of the party she dug them out of a financial hole left by her predecessor. When she became Chairman she was just as vigilant about party money. You’ll need to move on down your list of talking points, ’cause the “wastes money” item is baloney.
Comment by Voice of Reason — February 25, 2008 @ 10:03 pm
#9 was Marty and Marty was a joke as a Chairman. He and his ED did wonders for the Al Republican Party.
Comment by It was Marty — February 25, 2008 @ 10:08 pm
[…] H/T Doc’s Political Parlor Filed under Elections permalink :: no comments […]
Pingback by Daily Dixie: Cavanaugh running for PSC presidency — February 25, 2008 @ 10:11 pm
I do not know what financial condition Marty left things in when Twinkle took over as Chm after him. I do know that when she became ED after Chris Neely the state party was in a big hole and she dug them out.
Comment by Voice of Reason — February 25, 2008 @ 10:38 pm
Did anyone else catch disgraced former PSC candidate Perry O. “on the take from the utilities” Hooper, Jr. INTRODUCING TWINKLE AT HER PRESS CONFERENCE??????!!!!! Is she insane? She may have killed her chances at her ANNOUNCEMENT - that’s gotta be a new record!
Comment by Anonymous — February 26, 2008 @ 11:53 am
Are you sure that wasn’t file footage? The story I saw had that shot with Hooper sandwiched in among some old footage from when she was party chm.
Comment by Voice of Reason — February 26, 2008 @ 12:22 pm
Twinkle did not have a news conference to announce her candidacy - she simply sent out a press release. The footage that WSFA used was old file footage from when she was Party Chairman.
Comment by Get Real — February 26, 2008 @ 1:15 pm
What horrible luck if that was file footage. What, was the file footage of her with Hitler not available?
Comment by Anonymous — February 26, 2008 @ 1:31 pm
Weak body beats weak ethics everytime.
Comment by BlackJack — February 26, 2008 @ 6:46 pm
[…] Former Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley will run for the PSC presidency on the Democratic side, and former state GOP chair Twinkle Cavanaugh has announced her candidacy. […]
Pingback by Oden Passes on PSC, Eyes Treasurer Spot » Doc’s Political Parlor — March 28, 2008 @ 10:14 pm