Polls, Polls, Polls
Obama is 5 points ahead of Clinton in Alabama. No, Clinton is 5 points ahead of Obama in Alabama. Wait, no, it’s a dead heat.
On the Republican side, it’s difficult to imagine anyone other than McCain taking the nomination at this point. Though Romney will be in Birmingham tomorrow to make his case.
See a quick roundup of Alabama primary polling numbers here.
Interesting breakdowns in the SurveyUSA poll… e.g., for Dems, a majority of the northern part of the state prefers Clinton, a majority of the southern part of the state prefers Obama. A majority of those who favor Clinton could change their minds while little more than a third (36%) of those who favor Obama say they could change their minds. A majority of Alabamians in every age group support Obama except those over 65 years old prefer Clinton 2 to 1.
On the GOP side, Huckabee and McCain are close to even in support in the northern part of the state, but the southern part of the state prefers McCain, 45-27%. Interesting too that preacher Huckabee ties with McCain (at 37%) in support among those who go to church regularly.
And, fwiw, 4% of respondents in the SurveyUSA Democratic primary poll identified themselves as Republican, and vice versa.
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The finding that only those 65+ favor Clinton supports the research showing that society is not becoming more tolerant because people change their minds. Rather it shows that society is growing more tolerant because old bigots die off over time and are replaced more tolerant cohorts. Have we reached the point that a black could win the Democratic primary in Alabama? Or, do a few more old bigots have to die off? We will find out Tuesday.
Comment by Anonymous — February 3, 2008 @ 2:17 pm
Why would Romney come to Alabama? Is there really any chance he’ll even get a sizable showing?
Comment by SamfordDem — February 3, 2008 @ 7:29 pm
Why Romney to Alabama? Why not? Its probably a refueling point/crew rest stop on the way elsewhere.
Interesting point, Anonymous, although from a certain slant, it almost looks like your saying a certain age group is comprised mainly of bigots instead of considering other factors, e.g. name recognition. Remember what they say about assumptions.
Is the majority of the female Democratic vote racist/sexist/whateverist because they support Clinton? Are male voters sexist because they prefer Obama over Clinton?
But we’ll see Wednesday AM when the stats mavens offer up their “told ya so’s”
Comment by walt moffett — February 3, 2008 @ 8:51 pm
I tnink everyone should vote for the best candidate regardless of race, gender or creed. That said, why is a white who votes for a white candidate because of color is a bigot but a black who votes for a black candidate becaude of color is not. Either they are both racist and/or bigots or neither is.
Comment by old prosecutor — February 3, 2008 @ 10:05 pm
Mitt Romney’s campaign website says he is to campaign today (Monday) in Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, and New Jersey. If he had planned to be in Birmingham he must have canceled that stop.
Comment by Don — February 4, 2008 @ 9:16 am