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Clearly, Democrat James Fields had a good evening and Republican Wayne Willingham did not last night as James Fields brought home the historic win in the House District 12 special election that many expected would be a GOP pickup. Who else had a good night last night? A bad night?
Good Night
- Alabama Democratic Party – The state party was intimately involved, had an organizer in the district, and fought hard for a seat that many Republicans thought was unquestionably going to be a GOP pickup.
- Grassroots politics – Fields won two races (primary and general) while being outspent in both. (Caveat: The final financial tally is not in on the general election.) He refused to do any automated phone calls and turned down some offers of outside-the-district help. He accepted AEA’s offers to help with three mailouts but wouldn’t accept more. The state party’s participation involved building the grassroots, e.g., knocking on doors and local events. Voter turnout is especially key in special elections, and Fields turned out more than enough.
- AEA polling – Sources told me that AEA quit polling on Wednesday because the lead they were showing for Fields was so large it appeared insurmountable. Even hopeful Dems doubted, and Republicans generally scoffed that Fields was that far ahead, especially as Alfa’s automated polling showed the race to be competitive.
- Artur Davis in 2010 – You can be sure that Artur Davis is taking notice that skin color was not a determining factor in a district that is over 98% white. One district is not the whole state, but this was just not any district. To the same point and to a lesser degree, you can add Barack Obama’s Tuesday hopes to the list.
Bad Night
- Alfa – Clearly. The political heavyweight has been strongly behind a couple of losing campaigns that most observers thought were winnable (this one and Randy McKinney’s GOP primary loss to Trip Pittman in SD 32). Plus, Alfa’s polling numbers at the end had this as a race that Wayne Willingham could win, when in fact it was not remotely close.
- Bob Riley, Mike Hubbard, and the GOP plan to take the legislature by 2010 – Most Republicans I talked to believed firmly that this was going to be a GOP pickup. Some would even guarantee it. The blowout loss is not a good start to the ambitious plan. Our Chauncey Sparks examined the importance of the race in that context here.
- Racial politics – Willingham didn’t hit that issue hard, but Fields’ victory in a 98% white district is a hopeful sign that we are moving forward on the issue.
- Chris Brown – One Dem described the GOP campaign consultant as a “GOP wunderkind” and “rising star” who has won big races (most recently Trip Pittman’s Senate victory in SD 32 that startled so many) but yesterday’s loss has got to be a disappointment to him.
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I’m confident there would’ve been a different result in Floyd had won the GOP primary.
Danny – I think your analysis is dead on.
Actually, the ALGOP knew this one was going to be a loss, but you have to talk a good game. The problem was Willingham and his other political affiliations.
The main difference in this race and the ones in 2010 is that the ALGOP can run against the specific democrats who have been bilking the two-year system and the specific democrats who voted themslves a 62% pay raise. Fields did none of those things.
[Comment has been edited. More at comment #14.]
Questions:
- Did Bill Floyd openly support Willingham after the run-off? As a former party chief, he would have known the importance of unity, did he and his crew step up and help after his defeat to Willingham?
- Did Bill Floyd even vote yesterday? What about his supporters? Did they stay home, or did they vote for Fields, out of spite, sour grapes?
- To the last poster, what “promise” to leave the state are you talking about??? You make it sound like some Western movie, “Okay, Brown, we’re lettin’ ya outta here with yer life, just make sure yer backside doesn’t rest in Alabammy territory when the sun sets. Now GIT!”
Please man, get serious.
Re: #3. ALGOP knew it was going to be a loss??? Bwahaha!!!!
Also, they used that whole “double dipper” strategy last election against EVERY employee of the two year system in the last election and that netted them 0 seats. As far as the raise, sadly, the Democrats fell on the sword for the entire Legislature. Very few people actually turned the money down and many of the Repubs who voted against it secretly hoped it would pass and said so to their Dem colleagues.
So maybe ALGOP just needs a whole new strategy or maybe they’re just not lucky. Plan 2010: Vote for us cause Paul Hubbert is a tool :)
Post #1 I agree…Bill Floyd would have lost worse
Oh, wait, I have a better one…Plan 2010: Vote for us or we’ll send Riley’s horse over to take a crap in your yard.
Chris Brown is an excellent consultant and I hope he stays in Alabama for a very long time. He doesn’t have a 1.000 batting average, but neither do the other Republican consultants I know. Like the ones posting on here and telling Chris to leave the state.
There are no extenuating factors, the bottom line is Hubbard lost to a black man in Cullman. Running against a black man in Cullman is the closest you can get to a certain win and the Hubbard led Republican party blew it. At this rate you would have to assume that every single legislative race in the next cycle will go Democratic–every single one. Including Hubbard’s seat. So much for fundraising.
Pole Totem hid the nail on the head. The Repubs can try and minimize this loss all they want, but it does not erase the fact that they lost and lost big time in an election they should have won. Hubbard, Riley and the entire GOP party talked up how important this race was for two months, because they thought they had a lock. Now that it is over they bow it off like it is no big deal. As for Hubbard’s comment about remaining status quo, that is simply not true. Neal voted as often with the Repubs as he did Dems when he was in that seat. This is not only a win for the Dems, it is a pick up in terms of any number of votes on legislation as well.
Anyone read senate sketches today by hank sanders?
“Racial politics - Willingham didn’t hit that issue hard . . . ”
Last Saturday, the Willingham campaign blanketed HD12 with two direct mailings, one of which bore the headline “There’s one kind of dog that won’t hunt” over a photo of a group of howling dogs.
What kind of dogs were they? Coon hounds.
Clearly Cullman County is beyond that kind of racial politicking, but it certainly doesn’t look like Willingham is.
FYI, ALFA sat out the Pittman/McKinney runoff.
#13, is that why ALFA had a whole team of folks going door-to-door in the final days of the run-off? I live in Baldwin County and know for a fact that ALFA was fully engaged in McKinney’s race until the end. Funny how everybody wants credit for a win and points blame everywhere else for a loss.
Saying the GOP had a bad night would be putting it mildly. They should be ashamed to death of what happened especially compared to what their GOP brethren is doing in the neighboring states. Look at what happened in Mississippi today. They had another democrat state senator switch to the GOP today. One GOP official even gloated to me this morning in Tupelo that he’s heard as many as four more democrat senators will switch by the end of this summer. Also good blue collar candidates are a key to victory as well. In Mississippi three months ago in the Iuka area. The GOP nominated an EMT medic for State House District 1. No one gave Mr Carpenter a chance….100 people voted in the GOP primary last year compared to 5,000 for the Dems in that district. But he got out there worked hard and when November rolled around he knocked off a longtime Democrat State Rep and became the first ever GOPer to win an office in that district. In Tennessee back in ‘02 people laughed when a small town country doctor named Joey Hensley ran a write in campaign as a GOPer against a well entrenched democrat incumbent state rep. Just three years earlier the GOP held a FREE dinner in that district and only FOUR people showed up. But Dr Hensley went out knocked on doors and worked hard and won and he has been re-elected ever since with over 60% of the vote. They also knocked off the 36 YEAR INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT LT GOVERNOR ONE YEAR AGO THIS MONTH in Tennessee. In Louisianna a few weeks ago the GOP won the State House Speakers race for the first time. State Rep Jim Tucker is the first conservative GOPer to ever hold that post in Louisianna. The GOP in Georgia has picked up THIRTY FIVE seats in the Georgia State House since 2002. But its just one failure after another for Hubbard and his gang down in Montgomery. Turnham and the AEA folks must love dealing with Hubbard.
Dan T. –
Who worked on Bubba Carpenter’s race in MS?
#14,
Please knock it off with the anonymous defamatory comments. I hate it that Chris’s candidates keep beating yours in run-offs, but come on. Keep it professional. Don’t make it so personal.
The original comment here has been removed.
It contained what is, as far as I know, an unsubstantiated assertion of a potentially defamatory nature. Even if the comment were true, I do not understand what it adds to a discussion on politics and policy.
If the commenter would like to contact me, substantiate the comment, and make the case that it is relevant to a discussion on Alabama politics and policy, I am willing to listen.
I do not enjoy being on the slippery slope of policing comments.
When in doubt, let’s err on the side of civility.
Comment 14 has been removed as has this response to it.
Maybe it would simply make more sense to require registration with a valid email address before being allowed to leave a comment.
Alabama is a different kind of state. The Alabama Democratic Party knows how to win the votes of socially conservative voters who are likely Republican voters in Presidential elections. Also, the AEA is stronger, better organized, and more respected than many other unions in the South. Hubbard and co. don’t realize that nearly half the AEA’s membership votes Republican in prez races. It is not very effective to use them as the villain every election. .
Danny – can you go into more discussion on your reason of why Chris Brown had a bad night?
I agree with you that he is/was dissappointed because his client lost, but lumping him into the mix of others I feel needs to be explained more.
To me (and you can correct me if I am wrong here) you are singleing out a consultant who has had a great amount of success over the last 18 months because of a single loss? Has Chris done something to upset you that is causing you to single him out?
Was it Chris or was it ALFA’s “we don’t really care who wins” campaign strategy that lost the race?
Hi Jeff, nice to see you around.
To your question…
Expectations for the GOP in HD 12 were huge. I heard of GOP’ers talking about winning by 10 points, even guaranteeing a victory. There had been a lot of talk about taking over the legislature in 2010, and this was seen as a Republican-lean seat that was going to be a first step. GOP’ers would tell you that.
Chris Brown has built a good reputation by winning some big races, some races that his candidates were not expected to win.
When you have been a part of winning races that you’re expected to lose, it’s a bad night when your candidate loses a race that people expect him to win.
In sports, great teams have bad nights. I am not dismissing any success he has had over the last 18 months. I am saying he had a bad night. (I’d be surprised if you could find anybody who said he had a good night.)
And to your last question, certainly Chris hasn’t done anything to upset me.
Valid points Danny.
I read it differently and that it was more of an attack on Chris than a highlight of the election.
Please forgive me jumping to a conclusion on that.