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HD 12 Race Near End Posted by Danny, on January 25th, 2008, at 8:43 am
The special election will be held Tuesday. Related Articles: 6 comments to HD 12 Race Near End |
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A strong source close to HD 12 tells me that Democrat James Fields has a “comfortable lead” over Republican Wayne Willingham in polling done this week. I almost feel silly putting that out there because it’s hard to know with a special election. It’s about turnout, turnout, turnout, who will get their base out. However, I am hearing, from multiple sources, that Democrats in the district are energetically engaged in the race.
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Danny – I really haven’t kept up with this race and my knowledge of it is very limited, but I am going to hazard a guess here: I think that there is a good deal of “wisful thinking” involvd in some of the statements I have heard made by Democrats about this race. If Fields wins this – or in fact he even stays close – it flies in the face of basic political realities.
I haven’t looked at this race but I wsould be more than surprised if Fields wins.
And I apologize for the spelling mistakes – we’ll know soon if I am as bad at political predictions of races I know very little about . . .
I would be surprised too, but I know the quality of the source, so I am comfortable passing this on.
And of course, being ahead in any poll is a long way from winning, especially in a special election.
It shows that Cullman is not nearly as Republican as most people consider it.
Funding, trained workers, GOTV efforts all make a difference, whether you “wishfully think” they won’t or not.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I think a lot of people are making uninformed assumptions about this election because of race. Fields is not some carpetbagger put up by the AEA and the ADC because they couldn’t find anyone else, he is a man born and raised in Cullman with a long history of working with and for the people of this county. He demolished a primary opponent who had every conceivable advantage in terms of establishment support, organization, and fundraising.
People here know James Fields; I haven’t seen any polls but I would venture a guess that his name ID is much higher than Willingham. There is as much genuine enthusiasm for this race on the Democratic side as any local race I have ever seen.
On the other hand, there is very little enthusiasm on the Republican side, except for the very motivated Council of Conservative Citizens wing of the Republican party. A lot of the county establishment do not care much for Willingham, but he has a small but fierce core of support that usually delivers enough votes for him to win local elections. Willingham’s history as a member of the Southern Party and the League of the South, in addition to the fact that he is not originally from Cullman, have not helped among the city’s old political hands.
Basically, this race is not exactly what it appears, which is why, if and when the result shocks a lot of people around the Southeast, it will not shock people from Cullman.
SamfordDem, I think your last line could apply to any political contest in Alabama.