HD 12 Polls Differ Greatly
Alfa has been polling HD 12 this week. Last night’s polling by Alfa showed Republican Wayne Willingham moving slightly ahead (but within the margin of error) at 41-39%, two sources tell the Parlor. A mailout is given the credit for helping Willingham close the gap. (You can see the mailout from the links at the bottom of this post at Left in Alabama.)
Would be interesting to see if further polling shows if and how the #’s are moving. The difference between this last Alfa poll and another poll whose numbers have been reported to me (by two sources) are stunning.
One or the other of the polling outfits will have egg on their faces - except
- there is that caveat that anything can happen in a special election. A polling outfit can claim to be correct at the time but not have its results bear out because of unusual turnout patterns. And…
- they could roughly split the differences and the embarrassment, which would put Fields ahead outside of either margin of error.
We’ll know Tuesday.
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This has got to be a suppression poll and an attempt to demoralize the Fields campaign which has been riding high. The differences in the two polls you are way to far out of wack. As you’ve said though, it will be interesting to see what happens here.
Comment by John — January 25, 2008 @ 4:45 pm
Or the pollsters fall back on the “this poll reflects the views of those polled at the time it was made”.
That way, both dogs are still in the hunt for future work.
Lets see how this unfolds and the inevitable kvetching from the losing side.
Comment by walt moffett — January 25, 2008 @ 5:22 pm
Why does Wayne Willingham not identify himself as a Republican?
Comment by Mike — January 26, 2008 @ 6:42 am
Good question for Mr Willingham to answer, this isn’t 1962 when Southern Republicans fudged their party identity.
Comment by walt moffett — January 26, 2008 @ 9:27 am
Voters are a strange bunch. No matter what happens in a few days, this district will vote in overwhelming numbers for the GOP nominee for President in November. It just doesnt make sense. Fields agrees with Hillary and Barack on nearly everything. Fields has a good chance of winning Tuesday though but Barack or Hillary have no chance of winning Cullman in November. Im not saying that to run James down. I actually like him more than I do Willingham. I just find it odd how voters think sometimes.
Comment by dan t — January 26, 2008 @ 11:05 am
Danny - as I have said before, I know nothing of this election. But I can tell you this much: there is a long history (and a lot of witnesses to bear this out) of Gerald Johnson having polls showing Democrats with big leads in polls in the weeks leading up to elections only to see them “narrow” in the last few days. Often the winners in these elctions are not the candidates with the “big leads” only day before. I don’t know if that is where your numbers are coming from, but you can find a lot of people who can vouch for that sequence of events . . . .
Comment by Anonymous — January 26, 2008 @ 4:05 pm
To #5 Above - it is in the inrterest of certain special interests to make people believe that Fields is in a strong position in this election. If he is not, everything Dr. Hubbert and Mr. Johnson say from now on should be regarded skeptically. They have put their credibility on the line here.
Comment by Anonymous — January 26, 2008 @ 4:47 pm
In response to #5, “Fields agrees with Hillary and Barack on nearly everything.” Please! First of all, making the argument that two people of the same party agree on everything is less than informed. Otherwise, all Republicans are responsible for the 900 or so false statements to push us into war in Iraq. Does that mean all Republicans believe corrpution is okay like Nixon and DeLay. I’ll one up that. Do all Republicans believe homosexuality is okay in one’s personal life even though they fight against gay marriage in their public life as does our esteemed Senator Larry Craig (allegedly)? Finally, are all Republicans in agreement to use racism as the GOP did with the Southern Strategy (admitted by Ken Mehlman and covered in the USA Today) or the subtle use of race in the state parties flyer? (It seems very suspicious that they would juxtapose pictures of Mr. Fields and Mr. Willingham except to point out his race.)
In other words, simple comparisons do not portray an accurate picture.
Furthermore, I hope the voters of HD12 see that the above flyer does not have any merit in terms of giving accurate comparisons or improving our political discourse.
Comment by Trvld — January 27, 2008 @ 8:21 am
[…] I pointed last week to a mailout that Wayne Willingham, Republican candidate in the HD 12 special election tomorrow, sent out last week. Over the weekend I find that James Fields, the Democratic candidate in tomorrow’s special election, has a TV spot available on YouTube and a radio spot also available online. (I have not been able to find anything similar for Willingham.) […]
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