Posted by Note from Doc: Always glad to hear from Chauncey Sparks when he can stop by. Watch for an upcoming companion piece looking at the GOP side.
Most of the Alabama Democratic power structure have aligned behind Hillary Clinton. Jim Folsom, Ron Sparks, Susan Parker, Joe Turnham, Joe Reed, Patricia Todd, and many of the party’s leading lights are publicly supporting Hillary. There are many motives behind this support, most of them born out of enduring relationships with the Clintons and/or a pragmatic sense of inevitably that Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and very possibly the next president.
The Alabama supporters of Barack Obama, most notably Congressman Artur Davis, have made their decisions based on a similar calculus. Many Alabama Obama supporters have known the Illinois Senator for several years and others want to be part of an historic campaign finally breaking through the wall of race that has been an obstacle to many capable black leaders.
Though Clinton and Obama don’t differ greatly on the issues, it is clear to me that one candidate is the smarter choice for Alabama Democrats. That candidate is Barack Obama.
Despite the ups and downs of the caucus/primary season, Barack Obama has continuously secured the endorsements of red state Democrats. From Sens. Claire McCaskill (MO), Ben Nelson (NE), and Kent Conrad (ND), to Govs. Tim Kaine (VA) and Janet Napolitano (AZ) and blue dog Reps. Rick Boucher (VA) and Jim Cooper (TN), Obama is the choice of conservative and moderate Dems throughout the country. These individuals know what it takes to win in their Republican-leaning states.
The underlying reasons for the red-state Democratic support of Barack Obama is simple.
With Republicans more deeply divided than they have been since the Gipper was elected in 1980, Democrats are smelling not only taking back the White House, but also cementing control of Congress for the foreseeable future. As many pundits have accurately stated, the only person with the ability to unify the Republicans is Hillary Clinton.
The issue is deeper than just one candidate though. Democrats in Red States have been fighting an uphill battle for a generation. While many red-state Dems survive, they are the exception rather than the rule and their survival has been perpetually endangered by the direction of the national party. A Clinton nomination is more of the same political game, with Democrats in red states having to downplay and distance themselves from their party’s nominee. Barack Obama offers a hope (even if it is only rhetorical) that the red-blue/liberal-conservative divide that has shaped the politics of the Clinton/Bush era will be no more, perhaps pushing the reset button on the body politic and giving red state Democrats a fresh start without the baggage of the politics of division and polarization that have plagued red state Dems for two decades.
There is also the not insignificant issue of Alabama’s black voters. Black voter registration and turnout is lower than that of whites, but many say the candidates (Democrats specifically) have failed to speak to and motivate the Democratic base. An Obama nomination would serve as a test to see whether black voters will turn out for a black candidate who speaks to their issues or whether the disparity in black / white turnout is a deeper societal issue. Obama has appealed successfully to white voters before, though it remains to be seen how he’d do among Alabama whites. But could he do much worse than John Kerry or even Al Gore? If Obama is able to not just increase the Democratic performance in 2008, but actually engage new voters (“enlarging the pie”), Alabama politics could be permanently altered.
Can Obama win Alabama in a general election? Probably not. Would he even run stronger than Hillary? Hard to say. But by taking Hillary (and all of the baggage she brings with her) out of the equation, perhaps Alabamians will take a fresh look at the Democratic nominee. With important statewide offices and hundreds of local offices up in 2008, Democrats can ill afford another 2004 bloodbath where their nominee couldn’t even crack 40%.
To put it bluntly, neither Obama or Clinton will win Alabama in a general election. But Clinton promises more of the same polarization and partisan divide of which Alabama Democrats have found themselves on the losing end for decades. With Obama there is at least a chance, that he can break through the status quo and forge a new and different political environment. If I’m an Alabama Democrat, that’s a chance I have to take.
Related Articles:
Nice post. Prepare to to be pilloried (or maybe Hillaried). I have spoken with several prominent Alabama Republicans who are basing their entire 2008 electoral strategy on the assumption that Sen. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, serving in their opinion to energize and unify Alabama Republicans behind the GOP nominee for the Supreme Court and the handful of other races on the ballot. They don’t appear to have that same certitude when Sen. Obama’s name is mentioned. They are obviously not afraid that Obama is a threat to win the state in November, but they don’t anticipate the same visceral reaction among their rank and file if he is at the top of the ticket.
Artur Davis should email this to all the Alabama Dems he can.
Where does the information about Folsom publicly supporting Hilary come from? he has publicly stated he will support the nominee, but has declined to endorse or run as a delegate for anyone. So where does this statement come from?
Nice, thoughtful post.
I agree Roy, the Republicans in Alabama hate Hillary Clinton more than they love their country. There was a picture on the front page of the Huntsville Times when Barack Obama visited of a man holding a sign that said: ANYBODY BUT HILLARY, EVEN YOU.
What I can’t understand is why they hate the Clintons. What did the Clinton’s do to them? If it’s Clinton’s policies they hate, which policies and why?
If Clinton is the Democratic noninee I’m afraid it will engergize the haters and we will have another Republican warmonger in office.
Good analysis, Agree that Obama would be better for the Democrats than Clinton and nation wide, the Republicans will be in a “rebuilding” mode for a while.
Whether, Obama will be good for the nation, is a question that will resolved by 2012, one way or the other.
ObDisclosure: If I vote in the February primaries, it will be to vote against the candidate I most annoying when I drive up to the fire hall.
Good question Anonymous from Comment #3. Sources within the Alabama Clinton camp count Folsom and Turnham as supporters, even though they aren’t public with their support.
I think it’s unfair to count Folsom in the Hillary camp unless he has publicly endorsed her or been working in some shape or form to get her elected. Whatever his private decision may be, it should remain so unless he makes it public. Joe Turnham has made his choice a little more obvious.
I do totally agree with your point, though. That’s why I’m backing Obama.
I am one of the folks that in a state where I can decide which primary to vote in, am deciding whether to vote for Obama or McCain. I sincerely believe either one of them will help with the unity of our country behind bold ideas, and hope both are their parties’ nominee.
It really depends on who i discern needs more help to win the primary as to which ballot I will request.
“Sources within the Alabama Clinton camp count Folsom and Turnham as supporters, even though they aren’t public with their support.” That is your admission, Chauncey, in comment number 7. That is badly at odds with your oepning statement in your article, “Jim Folsom, Ron Sparks, Susan Parker, Joe Turnham, Joe Reed, Patricia Todd, and many of the party’s leading lights are publicly supporting Hillary.” And according to FEC reports, Turnham has been fairly open with his support, or at least his checkbook has been.
Comment by der?
I don’t see how John McCain can unify the country because he’s said our troops will occupy Iraq for the next 100 years. The majority of Americans want our troops out of Iraq sooner rather than later. John McCain is at odds with the majority of the American people.
I agree with your post entirely. However, I think that Alabama democrats will vote for Hillary Clinton. Obama will not win here. It will also be interesting to see how much of a factor John Edwards will be here, his campaign has named Alabama as one southern state they expect him to do well in.
Keep in mind when you hear Bill Clinton talking trash this week about Obama that he was a failure as a President because he lost two years of his second term – and an ability to leave a legacy – because of a lie that led to an impeachment attempt. The fact that he is lying now shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. We simply cannot afford, as Democrats, to risk losing our momentum, our majority in the legislature (Clinton lost that in 1994), and a real chance to move Democratic policies forward in DC by installing the divisive Clinton gang back into the White House.
John Edwards is definitely the best choice for Democrats. Neither Clinton or Obama are going to have much appeal to voters in the South. With his populist message, Edwards can restore the Democratic Party as the party of working families.
Right Democrat, always good to see sunny optimism in the face of adversity.
I’ve posted on this at Captain Plaid. My thinking is that Chauncey needs to look at this 2008 race as an opportunity. Take the long view! Build, frame, … but mostly fight back against the right wing as they continue to define those that oppose them. I also fear Chauncey has us focused on just one race that the GOP will win absent George Wallace or Dale Earnhart or Paul “Bear” Bryant or … being the Democratic nominee. Coat tails will not or hardly apply in Alabama in 2008. My post may be found at http://captainplaid.blogspot.com/2008/01/outlander-of-day-chauncey-sparks.html
If Democrats want to win, and not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as they have so often done, they ne to leave Obama at home. Yes,Hillary has high negative ratings and hard-core Hillary-Haters, but consider this. She has been slimed all they can slime her. Anything that could be uncovered has been uncovered.
Obama and supporters have no idea how bad it will get, And the operators of the slime machine are salivating at the prospect of having Obama to target.
The race card will be played to heighten racial fears. Go down the list. Daddy from Africa. Black man white woman. He will be portrayed as a teenage drug dealer. And of course theres the middle name. And his repeat protestations he is a Christian, not MUslim.
If the slime machine can convince a gullible public that John Kerry , who actualy went in the service and went to Vietnam and had shots fired at him, was actually the war traitor. While the drunken frat boy who joined to guard to hide..then didnt show up was actually the patriot. What do you think they will do to Obama?
In other words, JD: Never underestimate the ignorance and prejudices of the American voter?
Question for RightDemocrat:
When you say that Edwards is the only candidate that can appeal to voters in the South, it will be because he’s a Southern white male?
From reading some of the comments posted I’ve come to the conclusion we are this mess because of the ignorance and prejudices of Southern white males.
Roy, I apologize. My cynicism is showing. I am Independent. Neither Democrat nor Republican. I usually decide which primary to vote in based on which ballot has the most dangerous scoundrels who need voting against. But I want this bunch “leading ” our country now gone.
My arguments against gObama are pragmatic. I dont want the Democrats to pick the least electable candidate as they have done so often in my lifetime.
Here’s an example of what I was talking about. Two days this week Oboma has repeated and repeated… I AM A CHRISTIAN… The next day I am standing in a bank lobby listening to this redneck woman tell the teller.. “Yep he wont even say the pledge of allegiance..” the teller asks “why not”..rednack gal…” Cause he’s a Muslim “..
Redneck gal wouldn’t vote for Obama regardless of his religious peferance. I’m tired of our country being held hostage by the likes of redneck gal. I am going to pray there are more reasonable, tolerant and intelligent people in America than there are redneck gals.
Want to comment to JD and others who see the gamesmanship in nominating Obama.
First, are we going to solve the race problem in America by nominating a black man before he could win in a general election? (My money says he can’t this term, but watch out….he’s a force.)
Second, since when do Democrats choose who the Republicans and independents want them to choose? I am all for losing some of the partisanship. But, nothing in the American political environment shows that Rebublicans feel the same way: except that they think we should nominate Obama. Hmmmmmm. Sounds a little Tom Sawyerish to me (remember the fence painting scenario?).
Third, if anyone believes that Republicans will cross over to vote for Obama, is it because those Republicans like Obama’s policies? The same people who liked George Bush’s? And Cheney’s? And JOE LIEBERMAN’S.
I have heard the most vile things said about Senator Lieberman by Democrats. Why? Because he “crossed over.” He participates in closing ranks between Dems and Reps. This appears to be the single message of Obama. So, why is his saying it like the “second coming” and Lieberman saying it intolerable.
Obama cannot get the Republicans he needs in the general. So Dems will simply have 8 more yearsof Rep rule.
My greater concern for Dems is this: why would we nominate someone whose entire campaign is about dropping partisanship? Because it “feels good.”
We would do well to steer away from Obama this term, and hope that he toughens up for next time. Why? Poor judgment on the “let’s all be friends” campaign thinking.