Wren Out of AL-02 Race
State Rep. Gren Wren (R - Montgomery) said today that he will not run for the 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Republican incumbent Terry Everett. He had formed an exploratory committee and was listed as a candidate for the seat (at least, for example, by Associated Press), but the Political Parlor had reported back in November that Wren was looking doubtful for the race.
This is good news for state Rep. Jay Love (R - Montgomery), as this is one fewer candidate to split the geographic base. Republican state Rep. David Grimes, also from Montgomery, remains at least a nominal candidate, though we have long heard speculation that he may also choose not to run.
We can’t know what tea leaves Bobby Bright is reading as he decides what party’s banner he will carry, but will he decide that this presents an opportunity on the GOP side in the form of a less-divided Montgomery electorate?
Related Articles:
Anyone pushing for Bright to run as a Republican doesn’t have his interest at heart. Hard-core Republicans would tear him apart in the low-turnout primary as “not one of them.”
Comment by Anonymous — January 3, 2008 @ 2:00 pm
I think Wren pulling out may cause Bright to look more seriously at a GOP run. Love cannot beat him in Montgomery and the tri-county area and that would put Bright into the runoff with Harri Anne Smith.
Comment by Bobby — January 3, 2008 @ 2:04 pm
Republicans are salivating at getting Bright in the GOP primary. They’d much rather face him in a primary, where he’s without the groups he’s most popular among –Democrats, African-Americans, and independents.
Comment by Anonymous — January 3, 2008 @ 2:06 pm
I did not say Bobby would win the nomination - only that he would outpoll Jay Love in Montgomery. Bright can make the runoff but he will lose there to Harri Anne Smith. Bright does have accomplishments in government which Love lacks, and Love was a major backer of the Amendment One tax hike.
Also, Love will have a hard time attacking anyone else as not being “Republican enough” given his own background.
Comment by Bobby — January 3, 2008 @ 2:15 pm
Bright could still win this as a Democrat, but if he gets in as a Repub, he’s going to get beat up. All you need to do is run a list of his political contributions:
$1000 to Artur Davis in ‘05
$1000 to Sue Bell Cobb in ‘05
$1000 to Quinton Ross in ‘02
$500 to Siegelman in ‘02
$500 to the Democratic Executive Committee in ‘98
Then you top it off with an ad reminding everyone that he’s A LIBERAL TRIAL LAWYER, and voila: Bobby Bright’s political career is over.
Comment by Benny — January 3, 2008 @ 3:17 pm
Danny - I would agree that Wren’s withdrawal makes the short term look better for Love, but the long term might be a whole lot worse for Jay. If Jay Love is the only Montgomery area Republican to declare early, I think it will embolden Bright to jump in the GOP race. I believe that Bright is much stronger than Love in the Montgomery metro area regardless of party, and Love cannot overcome Bright’s name ID and support. I think there will ultimately be one Wiregrass candidate and one Montgomery-area candidate in the runoff; if Bright runs he’ll be the Montgomery area guy.
Comment by Anonymous — January 3, 2008 @ 3:21 pm
. . .and it wasn’t Bright who backed the biggest tax increase in history - that would be Jay Love. Love is as vulnerable as Bright on the “real Republican” issue. Harri Anne Smith and Tim James have way better credentials as conservative Republicans - they both steadily opposed the tax hike.
Comment by Anonymous — January 3, 2008 @ 3:24 pm
The bottom line is that the GOP wants to drown Bobby Bright in the bathtub in the primary before he poses a real threat as a Democrat in the general.
Comment by Anonymous — January 3, 2008 @ 3:39 pm
I don’t see how you can consider Bobby Bright as a serious GOP candidate. He knows he cannot run as a republican, all he is doing is playing games with the DCCC for more money in the general election. And I doubt Love will attack anybody for not being partisan enough, at least I would hope he won’t. That is along the lines of attacking candidates for not being “black enough” it is ridiculous. The primary (if it makes a run-off) will come down to Jay Love and She-Devil. The winner will go on to beat the snot out of Bobby Bright. Like was pointed out earlier, it’s hard to get the black vote in the Republican Primary. Either way Jay Love and Bobby Bright draw from too complete different sections of Montgomery. Jay Love is from the Scott Simmons camp in town and had William Boyd not been a complete nutjob and been a serious black candidate Bright would have been in trouble.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — January 3, 2008 @ 4:05 pm
I think (hope) that you’re right Wallace. If so, it’s kind of a brilliant strategy. Although dragging this thing out may hurt him with some hardline Democrats, it could convince some independents and disaffected Republicans (there are a lot of those floating around right now) that he is legitimately one of them. If Bright goes for the Dem nod, this would be a fun race to watch, even if it turns out to be lopsided.
Comment by SamfordDem — January 3, 2008 @ 10:15 pm
Lopsided races are always fun to watch when they wind down. Performances worthy of the Old Vic as the under dog slowly realizes he is on stage alone but is undaunted, a gracious victor, and voters who go “I thought you and yours were gonna vote for the other guy who shoulda won”.
How this one turns out will be on the list to watch for sure.
Comment by walt moffett — January 3, 2008 @ 10:52 pm
In the end, it looks like all roads lead to Harri Anne Smith in the 2nd district unless Tim James gets in.
Comment by Anonymous — January 4, 2008 @ 9:43 am
Haha, Harri Anne Smith is in for a rude awakening. Her brilliant campaign staff has only won one recent election, her’s in a safe district. Since they love her so much down there, they can keep her.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — January 4, 2008 @ 10:28 am
Say what you will about her, Harri Anne has a solid record as a “no new taxes” pro-business Republican. Jay Love does not. And Harri Anne has the Wiregrass. So she has a solid advantage over Love. Bright would be stronger from Montgomery - sure, he’s really a Democrat but Jay Love is one too isn’t he? Ask Mac MacArthur and Joe Perkins - they sure think Jay is a Democrat.
Comment by Anonymous — January 4, 2008 @ 11:34 am
Wasn’t Harri Anne Smith a Democrat originally? If so, doesn’t that make all her supporters’ criticism of Love kind of moot?
Comment by SamfordDem — January 4, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
Harri Anne consistently scores 100% on voting ratings from conservative groups while Love ranges from a D-level 67% (NFIB - small business association) to a harrowing F of 47% (Eagle Forum).
As long as Harri Anne racks up 100% ratings from Conservative groups I’ll take my chances with her versus an AEA-funded Rino.
Comment by Anonymous — January 4, 2008 @ 2:02 pm
Anonymous poster #16, long live Harri Anne Smith!
Don’t say anything. Don’t need issues. Just smile real big. Say you’re conservative without defining why and hope no one asks any tough questions.
Super strategy.
Almost forgot, continue the same old tired AEA funded Rino message that has been used in the past to deride your opponent.
Folks, the day is coming when that is no longer effective.
Pretty sure the old AEA rino strategy didn’t go so well in the Special Election for Senate 32.
Why do some of you think someone must be a frothing at the mouth, die hard, nut job right wing Republican in order to run for office on the Republican ticket these days?
Serious question people? The good ole Rovian strategy for winning cannot work indefinitely. Any new ideas? Something fresh, anyone dare to offer something original?
I’m Republican but jesus, I get tired of hearing the rino/aea funded/ not conservative enough attacks on candidates.
One more thing for the men/women conducting the polling in rural alabama, when you’re waving the conservative banner back and forth, would someone mind defining on which issues the candidates take a conservative stance instead of lazily applying the blanket conservative label.
I realize this may take a little more effort than calling 10 registered voters in each county in district 2, reading some skewed facts under the guise of impartiality, afterwards asking the people who they think is conservative and then passing along the results as a legitimate survey. But could you try and be more specific? Pretty please with a cherry on top.
Since this is a congressional seat, how about foreign policy, social security, iraq, iran, immigration reform, securing the border with mexico, the economy, growing unemployment, the housing market, irresponsible lending practices…..
Comment by Nixon — January 4, 2008 @ 3:57 pm
It is about time someone said what Nixon in the previous post said. All this nonsense about how conservative Harri Anne Smith is and thus she will win is making me sicker by the day. She knows nothing of issues and that will be proven. Will she prove me wrong? I actually hope so but that is doubtful. All she does is smile as Nixon says and everyone knows it. “Vote for me yall I am conservative……big smile………” Is that really what we want to represent us? We have enough smiling brain dead chair warmers that only want to be in congress to boost their ego; so let’s please not elect another one via Harri Anne.
Comment by GOPer — January 4, 2008 @ 7:44 pm
Where is Tim James when you need him? Run Tim Run!!!
Comment by JT — January 4, 2008 @ 7:45 pm
I have been reading posts on here for a while and some of them say Senator Smith is nothing more than a smile. You think???????????????? I agree we need someone that will tackle issues, not just visit senior centers. Whoever talks about issues and has positions on such will get my vote; this election is an important one. No fluff please.
Comment by JT — January 5, 2008 @ 9:26 am
Agree with Nixon to an extent and JT. Give me a candidate who runs on the issues.
Comment by Anonymous — January 5, 2008 @ 10:28 am