Alabama Politics in
Doc’s Political Parlor
& Home of Lawn Mower Repair

WAKA-TV, Channel 8, the CBS affiliate in Montgomery, has a piece called Talk Back Live where Congressional candidates for AL-02 are on to take calls from the TV audience for 15 minutes each. Republican State Sen. Harri Anne Smith was scheduled to take calls at 5 p.m. today but called to cancel on them.

A source close to the campaign told the Parlor that Smith had “a scheduling conflict,” the same thing that had her miss other public events. The source said that she would appear on the show in the next couple of days. Another source has told the Parlor that Smith is scheduled to be on Talk Back next Friday, on Memorial Day Weekend.

On the other hand, she has a new TV ad out today.

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Continuing to look at the victory of Democrat Travis Childers over Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s 1st House District… and considering what implications, if any, it has for Alabama’s House races.

Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report has an interesting article, “Mississippi Special: Why Childers Won and Why Davis Lost.”

Rothenberg has re-thought some of his initial assessments of the race. I found it all interesting, but I’ll mention only a couple of points.

Hypothesis No. 2: Any Republican with a pulse should have won this district, so Davis’ defeat is a sign of the deep, deep national problems in the Republican Party.

This seems logical. The only problem is that it is wrong. […]

Polling in the district showed Bush’s “favorables” well above 50 percent, and Democratic pollster Anzalone minced no words when he told me, Louisiana’s 6th and Mississippi’s 1st “are not referenda on Bush and Republicans in Congress.”

Rothenberg also agreed with the observation of our Mississippi GOP insider who believed the “message was wrong.”

Republican attempts — both by the Davis campaign and by the National Republican Congressional Committee’s independent expenditure — to polarize the race merely by calling Childers a liberal and linking him to Obama and Pelosi simply didn’t work. That approach was sufficient to produce a victory at one time, and it may have resonated with GOP voters in this race. But they weren’t the swing group in the contest, and those sort of generic messages seem less effective now.

Maybe invoking liberals works in a Republican primary.

There is more, and if this is your kind of thing, you’ll probably enjoy it.

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Jay Love is another Republican campaigning against “liberals” in an ad for an Alabama GOP Congressional primary.

Politico has a story on its front page about the ad being the first to reference the California Supreme Court decision to strike down the state’s ban on gay marriage.

Is the ad’s point that others in this Alabama GOP primary are embracing Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, and the California Supreme Court’s decision? Or, by being first with such an ad, that Love hates liberals faster?

I find this interesting. The early signs are that Republicans who are trying to link their Democratic opponents to national figures like Obama and Pelosi are not having success. The reasoning here, I suppose, is that in the primary you are trying to stir up your core support. Still interesting.

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What can we take from the victory of Democrat Travis Childers over Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District? Is it a bellwether for Democratic success in the fall? What is to be learned especially as we look ahead to Alabama’s House races this fall?

A Mississippi Republican offers Parlor readers an insider’s perspective on the Childers-Davis race:

Looking back on this special election, I’m reminded of what Ole Miss coach Johnny Vaught frequently said: You don’t win games on the field. You win them on recruiting day.

When Greg Davis won the nomination to run for this seat in November, Mississippi Republicans lost the seat. The same campaign philosophy that made him the nominee (a very DeSoto County-centric, scorched earth strategy against Tupelo’s Glenn McCullough) ensured that the special election would be a fight between DeSoto County and the rest of the district… and guaranteed a loss. As has been said in the press over the last couple of days, it enabled Travis Childers run on a populist platform, break away (at least publicly) from his own national party, and frame this as a regional battle. Brilliant strategy on their part - the DCCC should be commended. If Anzalone had a hand in that, he certainly deserves to be on the list of winners.

The Republican nominee was stiff and not at all personable, and by all accounts, had high unfavorables by the time he reached the special election run-off. Compounding that, the prototypical conservative v. liberal message was entirely misguided. The good news for Republicans is that the message was unified, which is obviously much better than having a potpourri of messages coming from various organizations. The NRCC, the Davis campaign, the state party, even Freedom’s Watch- they were all nailing Childers to Obama. The bad news is that message was wrong. This year, simply connecting a candidate to Obama won’t work, even in districts where the white population makes up the overwhelming majority. Folks in AL-5 and AL-2 would do well to pay attention to the lesson Mississippi Republicans just learned the hard way.

Tom Cole held a conference call Wednesday with reporters, and said that after three special election losses in a row, it becomes less an issue of campaign tactics and more an issue of the product we’re putting in front of voters. Following that logic, Karl Rove wrote in Thursday’s WSJ that the first two losses were a result of “bad candidates” and the third a result of the Democrats nominating a conservative. Rove is partly right - the third loss, too, is a result of a bad candidate.

It’s easy for the Montgomery politico to comment on the Parlor Thursday that the NRCC should have done “whatever it took.” That politico should understand that you can spend a million, spend two million, spend whatever you’ve got - but if all things are equal with the candidates on election day, the jackass that can’t relate to the rural, hardworking Mississippian (or Alabamian) is the one that’s going to lose, even if he is a Republican.

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Looks like Luther Strange is getting on a toll road to see how far it may take him. Strange represents a group that is proposing a public-private partnership to build a toll road from Montgomery to I-10 in Florida or perhaps Highway 98 further south. No federal or state money would be used, and the project could be built within five years. (Incidentally, Strange lost the race for Lt. Governor to Democrat Jim Folsom who is pushing a highway project of his own.)

Republican Strange, the once and future candidate for statewide office, floats these ideas past us to remind us that he is out there thinking up his good ideas for the state, e.g. removing sales tax off of groceries, increasing state funding for pre-K programs, and at one time he was

working on putting together a public-private partnership on work force development that could involve using students to rehabilitate houses, which would provide them with marketable construction skills.

The toll road would create economic corridors and bring thousands of jobs to the area, Strange said in the Dothan Eagle. It is not just a toll road, but “an economic development ‘foyer.’”

And while Strange is not in full-fledged campaign mode, he appears to be approaching its foyer.

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Birmingham News - Advocates expect fewer reports of child abuse in summer months.

Birmingham News - State’s drought conditions easing slightly.

Mobile Press-Register - State Board of Education member Randy McKinney (R) accuses AEA of using push-poll to hurt his candidacy for reelection.

Mobile Press-Register - Alabama would get $50 million for Katrina related housing needs under emergency spending bill, President threatens veto.

Mobile Press-Register - Proposed defense bill would trim Mobile-area spending.

Mobile Press-Register - New study puts Boeing’s impact on state’s economy in 2007 at $700 million.

Huntsville Times - Legislators face full plate on final day of 2008 regular session.

Huntsville Times - The Huntsville Times urges Governor to veto measure that would expand number of supernumerary DAs.

Montgomery Advertiser - Proposed ban on PAC-to-PAC transfers likely to die on final legislative day.

Montgomery Advertiser - Governor announces expansion of health screenings in state’s schools.

Montgomery Advertiser - The Montgomery Advertiser urges legislators to approve measure that would create rainy day fund for General Fund and expand ETF rainy day fund.

Montgomery Advertiser - Commentary by Rep. Greg Wren (R-Montgomery), author of proposed rainy day bill, urges his colleagues to approve bills.

Tuscaloosa News - Tuscaloosa County property owners group wants home rule back on the ballot, concerns raised about County Commission ordinance controlling junk on private property.

Tuscaloosa News - The Tuscaloosa News predicts that efforts to tie return to four-year property tax appraisals to removal of sales tax from food will kill plan.

Tuscaloosa News - The Tuscaloosa News contends that rainy day accounts are necessary, but that the real issue is the state needs adequate revenue to provided needed programs and services.

Times Daily - Times Daily has problems with Governor’s tax compromise bill, but praises him for trying to stimulate action on issue.

Anniston Star - The Anniston Star  calls for legislature to reject Governor’s proposal to remove sales tax, urges Senate approval of House-passed measure.

Opelika-Auburn News - The Opelika-Auburn News says Department of Forensic Science should not be subject to budget cuts in next year’s spending plan.
(more…)

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St. Clair News-Aegis Editoral answers the question, “What makes a good judge?”

The Dothan Eagle Editorial about unwise spending by the Dothan Board of Education

Opelika-Auburn News Auburn soldier expected to refuse Iraq deployment.

(more…)

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1997: President Clinton apologizes on behalf of the nation for the Tuskegee Experiment.

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The State of Alabama has two budgets, the General Fund, and the Education Trust Fund. Basically the General Fund covers everything in the state budget that is non-education related, while the Education Trust Fund covers all education budget items from K through college. The General Fund has passed both the House and Senate and is awaiting for the Governor’s signature. Baring some major surprise I would imagine the Governor will sign the budget and it will be done for the year. The Education Budget is another story. There is a battle brewing between higher education and K-12 schools. When budget cuts were made in this year due to a slowdown in revenue growth, higher education took a much harder hit than K-12. While K-12 roughly ended at about level funding from last year’s budget higher education will take about a 9-10% budget cut. I am not on the budget committee so I cannot speak to some of the more intricate details of the budget but from what I understand it was about the best that could have been done with little new revenue to work with. The budget passed the House after a long debate and has been in the Senate for about a week now. Higher Education is asking that $25 million be added to the bottom line of the Education Budget to help soften the blow they are going to take next year. Adding to the bottom line of a budget is risky sometimes because usually you just take money from somewhere else and add it to say higher education. By adding to the bottom line you are basically saying that the budget will actually grow more than the legislative fiscal office or Governor’s executive budget office have projected. If you add $25 million to the bottom line and the state falls short of the revenue projected the entire Education Budget goes in to proration and everyone is cut equally. This has both sides of the education debate dug in pretty firm. With only one day to go in the session the Education Budget will have to pass the Senate, come back to the House for our concurrence (since it has to pass both chambers in the same form) and then go to the Governor for his signature or veto. All of this has to happen in one day. If it does not happen on Monday a special session will be required automatically because we must pass an Education Budget before October 1st. The question on everyone’s mind is how hard is higher education going to dig in on this issue in stopping the budget from passing and is there any room for negotiations to end the impasse between higher education and K-12. We won’t know until Monday but this issue is looming large for everyone.

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Folks are still reeling from the victory of Democrat Travis Childers in Tuesday’s special election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District. One campaign veteran told the Parlor that it is “hard to overstate the shockwaves that sent through the beltway Tuesday night.”

A Republican politico in Montgomery told the Parlor that Democrat Travis Childers’ victory in Mississippi was “a disaster,” adding “The NRCC should have spent WHATEVER IT TOOK to win that seat - with the NY Times running stories about the south going to Obama, etc… you don’t lose - period!”

Former NRCC chair Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia was foot-stomping unhappy at a weekly meeting of GOP House members:

Rep. Tom Davis stomped on the concrete floor of the Capitol basement when asked by reporters about Republican fortunes at the moment.

“This is the floor,” he said, by way of explanation. “We’re below the floor.”

Inside the meeting, Davis had just presented his colleagues with what he said was a 20-page memo outlining his prescription for a way out of this mess. He did not offer details to the press, yet did not spare the party and the president scathing criticism in his public comments.

“The president swallows the microphone every time he opens his mouth,” Davis said.

. . .

Asked if he thought there should be a change in House GOP leadership, he brought up the 2006 election and the loss of Congress, then wondered aloud why, when “the plane is being flown into the mountain,” there has been no change in direction.

The GOP lost 30 House seats in 2006, and Davis estimated that, without changes, the GOP could lose 25 seats in November.

Several readers on both sides of the aisle have emailed the Parlor to point out that Alabamian John Anzalone helped Childers’ campaign. Roll Call had a feature about him last night, and The Fix, the Washington Post’s politics blog, named Anzalone in its short list of Tuesday’s winners:

The Alabama-based pollster is the hottest commodity in the consultant business these days. Anzalone handled polling for Childers as well as Rep. Don Cazayoux, who won the Louisiana 6th District special election earlier this month. Among the other candidates in Anzalone’s stable: State Sen. Kay Hagan, who is challenging Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) this fall; and state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, the odds-on favorite in the open-seat race in Illinois’s 11th District.

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Birmingham News - Voters will decide whether to create rainy day fund for state’s General Fund if proposal gets final legislative approval next Monday.

Birmingham News - Congressional committee rejects offer by Karl Rove to respond in writing to questions about Siegelman prosecution.

Birmingham News - Number of supernumerary DAs expected to rise under proposal approved by legislature, Governor uncertain whether he will approve bill.

Mobile Press-Register - Defense bill could impact tanker award to Northrop Grumman-EADS.

Mobile Press-Register - Randy McKinney (R) announces reelection bid for State Board of Education seat.

Mobile Press-Register - Press-Register calls for compromise on bill to remove sales tax from groceries.

Mobile Press-Register - Press-Register says reforms to state’s juvenile justice statutes a “more sensible approach.”

Huntsville Times - Governor pushes his tax reduction proposal.

Huntsville Times - Guthrie makes immigration top issue in her campaign for GOP nomination for 5th congressional district seat.

Huntsville Times - The Huntsville Times says that reform to state’s juvenile justice statutes will “help many troubled juveniles.”

Tuscaloosa News - The Tuscaloosa News warns that state may see scandal unless regulation of bingo is reformed.

Times Daily - Secretary of State’s contract with Shelby County nonprofit comes under scrutiny, Democrats accuse Chapman of “double-dipping.”

Gadsden Times - The Gadsden Times views reforms to state’s juvenile justice code as a “better plan to help children.”

Montgomery Advertiser - The Montgomery Advertiser calls for Governor to veto bill to expand DA supernumeraries.

New York Times - GAO says Alabama among states most likely to miss deficiencies in nursing home reviews.

Birmingham Business Journal - Home foreclosures down in Alabama, up nationally.

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The Outlook Former governor, John Patterson, weighs in on current issues

The Selma Times-Journal Bus driver supports recent sick out by former colleagues at the Selma City School Board

The Tuskegee Times Article about a recent Macon County candidates forum

(more…)

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1932: Politician, Kenneth A Gibson, was born in Enterprise.  He was the first black mayor of major East Coast city, Newark.

1972: Gov. George C. Wallace is shot in Maryland while campaigning for the Democratic nomination for president. The assassination attempt by Arthur Bremer left the Governor paralyzed from the waist down and effectively ended his chances at the nomination. He campaigned again for president in 1976, marking his fourth consecutive run for that office. Bremer would serve 28 years in prison.

Source: Alabama Department of Archives and History

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PSC Presidential candidate Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh has scored quite the endorsement from former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee this week. I have understood that since bowing out of the presidential race, the former governor of Arkansas has been quite the party man, playing nice, building bridges, and so I am a bit surprised to see him get into this GOP primary. I hear that Cavanaugh is close to Huckabee and especially to his Huckabee’s campaign manager, Chip Saltzman.

PSC issues are not so campaign-friendly… we all want low utility rates but beyond that the issues get a bit wonk-ish. An endorsement from the man who won the state GOP primary has to be a great boost in this race.

Here is the ad with Huckabee:

She has a more biographical ad running also:

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