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The Parlor has heard this sentence finished with conviction in two different ways: “Bobby Bright is running as a…”
First, what we hear from multiple sources…
A GOP legislator who knows Bright personally has been telling people this week that Bright is in the race for the 2nd Congressional District as a Republican all the way. The decision has been made. That ship has sailed. Former state GOP chair Winton Blount has also been telling people that Bright is running as a Republican.
Last week, however, Bright was in Washington, DC where he met with DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) leadership.
So this means that…
Bright is running as a Democrat.
A Republican insider believes with 100% conviction that these things means Bright is running as a Democrat. Bright’s strategy is to tell everyone he is likely to run as a Republican because this makes him look more independent. This also gets the attention of the DCCC and increases their commitment to his campaign. No doubt.
Or, no…
Bright is running as a Republican.
A Democratic insider is sure that Bright will run as a Republican. Perhaps by design but certainly in effect, Bright will freeze the Democrats long enough that they will be without a strong candidate once he announces himself as a Republican candidate.
Like the Republican above, this Democrat has believed that Bright’s indecision was a PR move that would give him some credibility as an independent conservative before he announced as a Democratic candidate.
But now, Bright appears conflicted by beliefs that while he would have a much easier time getting to the general election through the Democratic primary than the Republican one, the district is too Republican for a Democrat to win. If he could manage the win as a Republican, he’d presumably have a safe seat for years, whereas if he wins as a Democrat, he could face a stiff challenge every two years.
How long can Bright keep this dance going?
FWIW, the Parlor hears that Winton Blount is the only known prominent Republican urging Bright to run for AL-02 as a Republican. Blount has been connected to Bright at least since Blount supported Bright’s successful campaign to replace Montgomery Mayor Emory Folmar in 1999.
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Does’nt matter which party he runs on – he’s not going to get elected . Why ? because even Wiregrass DEms don’t trust anyone from the Montgomery Power struture , much less Republicans . Same can be said for the Elmore & Autauga democrats and Republicans….Winton Blount does not carry any weight( no pun intended ) with Republicans anymore ……Think about it . Gail
Blount did NOT help Bobby beat Emory. He was mad at Emory for being with Fob in ‘98 but he (Winton) did not have the balls to assist Bobby in his run against Emory in ‘99.
Reminds me of John Lindsay and his tap dance between both parties in New York.
How lets see if he remembers to look down when walking across those Wiregrass fields.
Why doesnt he just run as an independent?
Anonymous in #2, I can’t speak to what level of material support Blount gave to Bright in 1999, and for all I know you are correct. You do speak to the point I was trying to make when you point out that Blount and Folmar were not best buddies, and that Blount wanted Bright to win that 1999 election.
Danny when can we expect an Alabama Line addition for AL-02?
Actually, Blount would return to the fold late in the race and be a part of a full-page ad in the Montgomery Advertiser calling for Folmar’s election. Blount provided no material support or support of any other kind to the Bright campaign.
Bright will not run as a republican. This is nonsense. If Blount is touting him – its a solo job. The support is not there with Rep. primary voters for Bright…a well know dem. He is best to run in the general election as a dem where he will easily get the nomination. The problem is – he very likely loses come the general election. Blount is nuts if he thinks he can sway any republicans to the bright camp. If he thinks so…he is not so bright himself.
My guess is that Bright would have a better shot at actually winning this seat as a Democrat than as a Republican because he would have an easier time convincing enough voters to back him in the general than getting enough Republican support in the primary.
[...] AL-02: Bobby Bright is Running as a… » Doc’s Political Parlor Posted Alabama Politics, Montgomery Politics on Saturday, December 15th, 2007. [...]
Danny – you are correct regarding Winton being very angry towards Emory Folmar in ‘99 – Red Blount also refused to assist Emory in that election. But they wouldn’t help Bright either; Bright’s people tried to get the Blounts to help them beat Emory but they wouldn’t. Winton in particular was very intimidated by Emory. So your basic point is correct.
Winton is not a major player in this race. sorry to tell him – but those days are over. he has not been active in district 2 from a congressional stand point and if he is trying to jump in now and give bright a boost it will fall very flat. he could be helpful to an actual republican candidate from a financial standpoint – but he does not have the influence to convince people to jump behind bright.
Agree that the blount glory days are over – he is just another supporter not somoene that can swing things.
William, good question. I think that Bright, Tim James, perhaps some others (Giles?), had said that they intended to reach a decision on whether to run by the end of the year. That will help shake things out a bit. Maybe by then the roundtable will be willing to weigh in.
Thanks, Anonymous in 11. My point in the last paragraph was simply to point out to readers who may not be familiar with Montgomery area politics that Blount and Bright have some connection that goes back a bit. Didn’t mean to get too far over my skis with it.
I very much appreciate the added information in the comments here and considered editing the last paragraph a bit. In the end, I decided not to since it involves an incidental point to the overall post, plus I do think/understand that Blount supported Bright at least in the way that millions of Americans say they “support” George W. Bush or they “support” Hillary Clinton in the next election – even if they don’t do anything tangible.
And again, I mainly wanted to point out a longer association between the two, which I think is valid no matter how you slice it.
Blount is in it for something. And #9 is right — Bright can’t get the GOP nod, but he can win a general election. Forget Everette’s numbers. He was there so long he got everyone. Forget Bush’s numbers. Times weren’t so bad in 2004… and Kerry?… come on. Voters who call themselves Republicans are good for about a 7% advantage. But the dem starts with at least a solid 30%. And more than 30% of voters are independents. When Smith and Love start fighting over who hates immigrants the most, Bright could be working the independents. Take the 30% of dems, who will never vote republican after eight years of Bush/Cheney… add 20% of independents who see Bright as an honest guy who did a good job, and he’s at 50%. But I’m betting he’d get a few moderate republicans from the Montgomery area too. He’d just have to run as a very conservative democrat. The more conservative the better for him, because, again, the democrats aren’t moving… but some republicans might.