HD 12: One Week Out
Turning our attention to next week’s GOP primary run-off in House District 12’s special election…
Next Tuesday, insurance man Bill Floyd and county commissioner Wayne Willingham square off to see who will face Democrat James Fields in the January 29 election for the seat vacated by Neal Morrison (D).
One political insider said that the numbers looked very good for Willingham. Which may be be true, but being a special election, and especially being the week before Christmas, it’s all about turnout. Special elections are hard to poll because with low turnout, it’s about who can motivate their base and get out the vote, especially in this busy season. Most people are thinking about shopping for gifts, not shopping for candidates. The candidate with the better “get out the vote” effort among his core supporters will have a key advantage.
The X-factor in the election may be Democrats. I am told that Floyd is the Democrats’ preferred opponent, and the unknown consideration is how many Democrats will cross over to vote in the Republican primary. Would, say, 100 Democrats voting in the primary be enough to swing it to Floyd? Would they be motivated to turn out? Turnout for the run-off will certainly be less than the 2243 voters who voted in last month’s Republican primary.
There is no organized effort by Democrats to turn out a crowd, but I am hearing of Democrats that plan to cross over to vote in the GOP primary.
Sources agree that Floyd will beat Willingham in Cullman and has to have a better turnout in the city than in the county to win the district. Floyd will hope to pick up 3 or 4 boxes in the county, say, in Hanceville or Good Hope. Will be interesting to see how many turn out in Colony, a Democratic stronghold, and if that benefits Floyd.
Willingham will want a better turnout in the county to win, and/or a strong get-out-the-vote effort in the city to offset Floyd’s strength there.
Willingham likely has the stronger hand. But then, he also was polling well ahead for the November election and finished a close second. Polls for special elections are not necessarily accurate gauges; that matter of low turnout simply makes the whole affair more volatile.
Third and fourth place finishers Stephen Parker and Greg Johnson had strong showings (only 225 votes separated first from last place). Will their supporters show up in the run-off? Parker won the city and his supporters are believed to be more supportive of Floyd. Johnson’s supporters are harder to pigeonhole though one insider believed they were breaking for Willingham. And it’s all about turnout.
One Willingham supporter expressed great confidence. Another source believed Floyd may surprise.
A special election primary run-off the week before Christmas? It’s all about candidates turning out their core supporters. We’ll know a week from today.
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Floyd should win. Parker and Johnson’s supporters will nearly all back Floyd. Willingham will pick up a few Johnson supporters way out in the county, but probably not enough. Willingham may be supported by ALFA, but most people in Cullman know his background with the League of the South and the CCC, and no longer want that image for Cullman. That said, I would love to see a general election matchup between Willingham and Fields. The x factor is that timing will depress turnout. That may help Willingham, who has the more devoted base, or it could help Floyd, whose supporters are likely closer to their polling stations.
Comment by SamfordDem — December 11, 2007 @ 10:30 am
Have Parker and/or Johnson made any endorsements for the runoff? How about Kretzhmar or Flaig in the Democratic primaries? Are they backing James Fields?
Comment by John Killian — December 11, 2007 @ 10:47 pm
No word in the local paper about endorsements. Maybe it happened and I missed it. Kretschmar didn’t even bother to shop up and see the final vote tallies. When the totals came in, I couldn’t blame her.
Comment by SamfordDem — December 12, 2007 @ 3:00 pm
A local tells me that no one has made public endorsements and that Kretschmar is supportive of Fields.
Comment by Danny — December 12, 2007 @ 4:19 pm
[…] Not a lot to add to what was already said here last week. […]
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