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The Southern Political Report has a piece on the race for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. I don’t see a lot there that regular readers haven’t already read here, but completists who want every word about the race may want to read it.
They did bite on the “43%” figure that someone near Sen. Harri Anne Smith’s campaign tried to push as a poll result for the percentage of people in the district who would vote for her, but Parlor readers know that that the real poll result was that 24%, not 43%, of respondents supported Smith.
Also, at the end of the story, they call the seat “likely Republican.” It’s at least that, and I was a little interested to see that they stopped short of calling it a Republican seat without qualification.
If I overlooked something, let me know.
Update: The Southern Political Report has edited its story to show that 24% of the poll respondents supported Smith.
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Danny – I think you certainly got the gist of the piece, and there was little new stuff in it.
I did notice that they refer to Harri Anne Smith as the early “favorite” and use some of the logic referenced here before. There is a notation of the fact that the Montgomery metro area probably will split, favoring Harri Anne Smith. The “insider” commenting obviously likes Smith’s chances – especially in relation to Love or Grimes.
I received a fundraising invitation for Jay Love yesterday. The host list read like a who’s who of Republican and Chamber of Commerce types in Montgomery. If anybody else from Montgomery runs I don’t know where they will get their support. I work with state government and whenever this race comes up Jay Love is the one they think will win.
Could that be a pretty strong signal that Bobby Bright is running for the Democratic nomination? The combo of “likely Republican” instead of solidly Republican and the the ironclad support that the Montgomery GOP establishment is giving Love seem to suggest as much.
I got the invite too and the list was very impressive. Almost 100 couples ranging from elected officials to a number of doctors, developers,bankers and small business owners. Seems like Love has struck the first blow.
Interesting who is not on the list. Most of the people on the list were not asked to give money but were asked to lend their name to the Love campaign. Is that an in-kind contribution that must be reported to the federal election commission? let’s ask Dax.
Carey you are wrong.
Love will be the montgomery guy and Smith will be the wiregrass favorite. bright will run as a dem. so, the question is, can someone come in the republican primary and strike a blow to love and smith and take this race?
Carey: “Most of the people on the list were not asked to give money but were asked to lend their name to the Love campaign.” Since I wasn’t invited I guess they figure my name is worth no more than my bank account. :-)
I would put zero value to the Love invite. From long esperience in Montgomery, I know that on many, many occasions people who do NOT support a candidate in Montgomery are often on “host” committee lists.
Regarding the poll numbers cited in the article – while I’m not a political expert, I have talked with a few folks who know a lot about elective politics and they all tell me that it is perfectly understandable why Harri Anne Smith would want to know how “decided” voters felt before she made her final decision about whether or not to run.
In order to find out how “decided” voters felt, they first had to determine what percentage of the voters surveyed had an opinion in the race. Then they determined who those “decided” voters supported and what percentage of “decided” voters those numbers represented. The resulting number of 43% was the number of “decided” voters who would vote for her against a number of other potential candidates.
In order to have a good chance to win, she would have to know she had a solid base of support from the people in the Wire Grass and “decided” voters are the only people who could answer that question.
Anonymous #9 you are wrong in this case.
“Rino Jay” will not have the support of Real Republicans in Montgomery and NO Republicans outside the Montgomery bypass. He is the candidate of Paul Hubbert (his major suppoprter in state elections), the State Employees Union (read: supporter of public employees in Washington), and Big Government. His candidacy is DOA in the Wiregrass and the rest of District 2. He represents all the worst elements of the Washington and Montgomery special interests. Ther Wiregrass MUST defeat this big government, union supporting fraud.
#11 I can tell you there are people on Love’s invite who are actively supporting other candidates right now. I suspect you know that is true as well. Read the first campaign disclosure reports and we can compare notes.
The smith numbers were corrected in the southern political report story.
A lot of Montgomery Republicans – especially people who supported real conservative Bob McKee – are highly skeptical of Jay Love and his ties to pro-democrat special interests.
I am with either Tim James or Harri Anne Smith. They have real conservative GOP credentials.
Thanks, Stephen, for comment #14. I updated the post to note that.
Anonymous in comment #10, the % of undecided voters is key to making sense of the results from decided voters. If 43% of “decided” voters support you, that’s great, but if 90% of poll respondents are undecided, then you don’t even have the support of 5 in 100 respondents. If 0% are undecided then you have the support of 43 in 100 poll respondents. That’s a huge difference, and the % of undecided is key to making sense of that.
Plus, I know that the campaign did not originally have the #’s reported to them this way (as “43% of decided voters”) because their pollster told me as much. They asked the pollster to refigure the results without the undecideds on the very day I was encouraged to call the pollster to confirm the #’s. They wanted to take respectably good results (”24% of respondents would vote for Smith”) and make them look even better. They managed to confuse the issue enough that the Dothan Eagle and the Southern Political Report reported inflated #’s, but poll #’s are not typically reported without the undecideds factored in.
As the national party begins to feel the heat of a recession, Republican Congressional Candidates are going to begin to move to the center on economic issues. I would imagine Jay Love would fit in with that strategy.
I agree that Jay Love is a centrist and not a conservative.
If you are competent in Montgomery area politics, Love’s list looks like it was taken off of one of the country club’s rosters. I was surprised; However, to see very few of the people who ususally “make” campaigns in Montgomery on the list. I’ve seen better invite lists from Perry Hooper, Jr., Councilwoman Martha Roby, Troy King, etc.
Exactly, Terry. This list is shockingly thin on real political backers. It seems that Love’s campaign may already be listing badly. Is there someone else out there who has commandeered the Montgomery GOP power elite?