Posted by 
The story heard here is that Harri Anne Smith has been putting off meeting with the Wiregrass cabal (who is trying to find the one best Wiregrass candidate for AL-02) until she had the results of her poll in hand.
Smith’s pollster, Verne Kennedy at MRI Research, told me that in recent parish elections in Lousiana where they had been polling, 28 of 35 elections were won by the candidate who initially polled highest. Which does not surprise me. It strikes me (and I said as much) that leading in an initial poll may be like leading a baseball game 3-0 in the third inning. Most teams who do, win. You like your chances but the game is not over.
So Smith’s spiel about how she can win the game for the home team will have a little more oomph to it when she can show she’s already ahead. (The plan has been for her to meet with the group on Tuesday.)
The aforementioned campaign veteran (from the previous post) believes that Smith is playing it exactly right: If you wants to convince the money-men and kingmakers that you’re their candidate, take in what is essentially a name ID poll and knock the socks off 25 guys – a group who has been trying to meet with her for 3 weeks while she gets the survey done.
The veteran adds the reasonable observation that if David Grimes decides not to run, his support probably goes to Jay Love.
Related Articles:
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
Name ID does not equal best candidate by a long shot. Polls don’t win elections…….voters do.
I bet David Grimes says no to a run and Jay Love gains steam. What if Harri Anne Smith says no; who picks up her votes? The remaining wiregrass candidate? People should not be surprised that the poll numbers show advantage Harri Anne Smith….now that the numbers are correctly shown and not unreasonably high in her favor. She is a state senator and covers a larger district than a state house seat like Jay Love and David Grimes. Thus, more people are familiar with her name. Interesting is Tim James. He seems to have name id and has money for a campaign. But he may opt as others do to look at statewide race in 2010.
Remember, when Strange Luther was winning statewide, George Wallace Jr won District 2 in a landslide. If George Wallace Jr decides to run, he will win this seat. I pray that he does.
Wallace ran and lost this race before. Besides he lives near Birmingham now He has no interest nor have I heard any talk of it.
Why can’t Harri Anne meet with a group without a poll in her pocket? If she is going to be a congresswoman and due her work via poll then I am not impressed Why could she not meet with this committee of sorts and say why she wants to run, what she will due for district number 2 and how she feels she is qualified and how she has performed thus far as a sate rep and a business person. Wiating until you have a poll that you have slanted as it was originally reported is not leadership in my view. it smells like bill clinton poll politics to me. I am the best because I scored the highest in a name ID poll so its mine mine MINE! Get real and work for it.
Personally I am not so sure Tim James will run. Second, I think these polling numbers look very good for Jay Love. Harri Anne Smith is a good State Senator who will be a strong candidate but I do believe Jay Love has to be happy with the position he is in starting out and the ground work he has laid so far.
Cam, you like Jay, we get it. You serve together, we get it. I like Jay fine and I do think he will make it into a run off with someone for the nomination. I think Jay will work hard for it and that is a plus. I doubt Senator Smith’s resolve. In terms of James, interesting comment. What makes you feel he will not run? I don’t know a lot about him as of yet.
PS – No one has a clue about Jay Love in the southern part of the district. He will have some work to do i bet.
AEA will see to it that Jay Love’s name is well known across the district. His voting record and financial support will be made known by his opponents.
Agree that Jay has an AEA problem.
I served with Jay Love in the Legislature and I don’t get the Jay Love AEA talk. He is in no way an AEA guy. On the gut check AEA votes I remember he went against Hubbert.
Harri Anne is the AEA stooge. Check out her campaign finance report the year she was first elected Sept the 4th $10,000 from brother Hubbert.
It is unfair and in error to call either Harri Anne or Jay Love an AEA stooge. If you want to look at contributions, look at what percentage of their total contributions come from AEA, or any other particular group. I haven’t looked at the campaign finance reports of either of them, but I’ll bet both of them received contributions across the political spectrum, just as I have.
I don’t think AEA will be an issue in the race.
I can tell you people my criticize Jay Love for something else but being an AEA stooge won’t be one of them. I think his voting record will clear that issue up.
JT you might be surprised to know that Jay and I have actually bumped heads a lot. That still doesn’t keep me from thinking he will be a real good congressman.
I don’t have anything to back up my thinking on the Tim James candidacy. I am not from down in that area although I have a lot of family from there. I just think in the end it doesn’t seem like something he would really be interested in. I could be totally wrong on that but that is just my thought or in this case–post.
I do think the key to the whole election will be the geographic make up of the field once all the candidates are settled.
I don’t doubt Jay would be a good congressman. I think he will make it to a run off in the primary. I lean toward your thoughts on Tim James (meaning I wonder about his legit interest and desire to be in congress). What you said about geography of candidates is true as there does not seem to be a George Wallace Jr type candidate that is known throughout the whole district. What is Barry Mask thinking? Is he in or out of this race?
PS – I said Jay has an AEA problem but then also noted I don’t think that issue will become a big one in this race.
OK, Y’all know I am an ardent fan of Smith’s, but that aside, it seems to me it is prudent to see how deep the water is, and how secure your footing, before jumping in the deep end. I’d have thought less of Smith if she hadn’t tested the waters first.
I agree MH but does she have to release the poll to this site, to the press, etc. That is where I find her actions annoying. Especially when the numbers published were not correct initially (although I don’t blame that on Harri Anne).
Jay Love is a creature of UNIONS and NO conservative. Check out his 2002 campaign finance reports – especially the one he hid from his district until AFTER the primary election. He beat conservative Bob Mckee (by onlyb 100 votes, btw) with AEA AND State Employees union money. That is a fact. Why oh why would anyone ever want a congressman who is beholden to PUBLIC EMPLOYEE UNIONS???? That is insane.
TJ,
First of all, I live in Huntsville and don’t have a dog in the House 02 race. We have a good crop of Republicans interested in the race. Refering to Jay as a creature of the unions and not a conservative doesn’t hold water in my eyes. The most important thing is to check his record of service since the election. Jay Love is the House Republican caucus whip and a solid conservative vote. Like me, I’m sure he knows the difference between a contribution and a bribe. I’m sure the AEA and State Employee contributions to Jay were more about their dislike of Bob McKee, than having Jay in their pocket.
With regard to contributions, I’m always glad to be able to raise money from a broad range of groups, as well as individuals. I think a legislator is more likely to be able to exercise independent thought if he is able to raise funding from multiple unrelated sources. I tell ‘em all the same thing: I’m always willing to listen.
I’m pretty sure that if you look at Jay’s contributions since the first time he ran that you will find more money from conservative PACs than from left-leaning PACS. Of course, we need major campaign finance reform to allow transparency in where we get our funding.
Mike, I think you have a good point about the difference between a contributuion and a bribe. But the SOS finance reports leave almost no doubt that Jay Love deliberately hid the source of his funds for the 2002 election. He didn’t tell the voters in his district that he was accepting large contributions from public employee unions even as the employes of the union were actively campaigning for him prior to the primary election.
That is less than honest.
“It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.”
H. L. Mencken
State School Board member David F. Byers, Jr… is another Republican that received a $10,000 contribution from AEA in the GOP primary. Politicians would never try to mislead us would they? The People of Alabama deserve honesty from their government; but one would be hard-pressed to prove that, in practice, we receive anything but the opposite. The Alabama legislature dominated by teachers, former teachers, teacher union-backed representatives and funded by teacher-union contributions. Paul Hubbert, Joe Reed, and AEA will be a big issue in this race.
Here are the specifics on Jay Love’s initial campaign for state legilsature: on the forms seen by voters BEFORE the primary, he lists only $5,940 in contributions, with large “loans” from himself financing the campaign. Then – in the days JUST BEFORE the primary and on a report that voters did NOT see until weeks later, two huge contributuions – one for $10,000 from AEA and another – also for $10,000 – from the State Employees’ Union came to him, retiring his “debt” from the “loans ” he made to his campaign.
Love knew he would get that money – union employees had been actively campaigning for him on union time for weeks prior to the day the contributions appeared on his reports. He deliberately hid his union support from the voters of his distict. That should certainly call into question wheher voters in this congressional district can take him at his word. And a congressman that the district cannot trust is a disaster.
Jay Love doesn’t pass the smell test.
Love has a plaque in his office from the State Employees Union thanking him for his support. That says it all.
Given Hubbert’s acclaimed propensity to control pliable legislators is it any wonder that –Jay Love is a loyal Hubbert acolyte?– Jay Love, served a purpose for Hubbert… it got rid of a Republican he did not “OWN!” This is what Hubbert does in Republican districts where a Democrat can’t win. Our 140 state legislators wield a tremendous amount of power by virtue of our current governing document. Many of them use that power to help others, but some use it to help themselves as well as the special interests to which they are beholden.
Well said Pookie.
It is absolutely ridiculous to say that Jay Love is in with Paul Hubbert. He is one of the VERY few who will stand up to PH and vote the right way. There are several Repubicans who do what Hubbert wants them to do, but Jay Love is not one of them. Anybody who pays attention in Montgomery knows that.
Paul Hubbert did not give Jay Love $10,000 as a newcomer running against a 24-year respected conservative GOP mainstay (Bob McKee) because Jay was going to vote aginst AEA. Hubbert had a committment. Those who know Paul Ray Hubbert KNOW he gets the committment before a candidate gets the money. Get real “Montgomery Republican.”
By the way, if you say Jay took the money but did not do Hubbert’s bidding (I would argue he HAS done Hubbert’s bidding, but let’s take your argument to its logical conclusion): wouldn’t that make him a welcher? Is THAT a quality to admire in a congressman????
TJ — I somehow doubt you have EVER talked to Paul Hubbert
I know Paul Hubbert well enough to know he gets a COMMITTMENT before making a contribution – and anyone who has ever dealt with Dr. Hubbert can assure you of that.
Jay Love committed to something to get that $10,000.
Ask Cam Ward and Mike Ball if Paul Hubbert ever gives out money without a committment. Anybody in politics in this state knows the answer to that question.
Did Harri Anne Smith commit to anything when she got $10,000? Only someone who doesn’t know would call Love a Hubbert guy. He has been listed multiple times in the AEA journal as an “enemy” of Paul Hubbert.
The days of $10,000 contributions are over when they run for US Congress. The limits on federal candidates are more strict than state limits so whoever runs better be able to raise money or have some of their own and be willing to spend it.
Right, Hubbert has to use 4 members to give the $10,000 instead of one
AEA is the devil. Any candidate that deals with them is bad news in my book.
Jay Love won’t make it. Hiring Dax Swatek as his consultant is the kiss of death. Ask Randy McKenny how effective Dax was in his loss. Even John McCain fired Swatek.
Woo hoo! ~~Dancing around the house like Snoopy, when Schroeder plays the piano!
Looks like Senator Smith is in the race. Hopefully the Wiregrass voters (and voters of rural counties around Montgoemry in the district) will throw their support behind her, since she would best represent the military and agricultural interests of the area.
HOoHOo,Ya’lll just better dread Bobby Bright IF he throws his hat in the RING!! He is for the hard working man .NOT their pocket BOOKS.
If republicans wish to win office in Alabama you will need to find a way to support higher education. If the cuts proposed are passed it will be your party that will pay the price. If it is the democrats that push this through and you can clearly expose them for doing so than they may be blamed.
Good luck with your campaign and best wishes from Troy.