AL-02 Poll: New Numbers
MRI Research confirmed to the Political Parlor the following results for a poll (conducted for the Harri Anne Smith campaign) in which they asked likely voters in the June 2008 GOP primary, “If the election were held today, which of the following candidates would you favor?”
| Undecided | 44% |
| State Sen. Harri Anne Smith | 24% |
| Greenville businessman Tim James | 15% |
| State Rep. Jay Love | 10% |
| State Rep. David Grimes | 5% |
| Dothan businessman Charles Nailen | 3% |
Why the different %’s from yesterday’s post? Here’s what happened. Someone in with the Smith campaign wanted to paint the best picture possible for its candidate, and so released the %’s for decided voters. That put Smith at 43%, James at 27%, and so on. Smith did not have the support of 43% of respondents, but had the support of 43% of respondents who had decided. The key to those results having any meaning was knowing what % of respondents were undecided. When I asked the polling company, I was told that “about 30%” of the respondents were undecided.
Yesterday, when I was speaking with Verne Kennedy of MRI Research, he realized he had inadvertantly told me an incorrect number previously for the % of undecided voters in the poll. He was glad to correct the figures and set the record straight; the actual % of undecided voters (as shown above) is 44%.
Previously, he explained, he had not had the numbers in front of him. A couple of hours earlier, he said, someone from the campaign had called him up to ask him to figure the percentages without the undecided voters included; that caused a little confusion when he was talking later about the poll without the actual numbers in front of him.
Harri Anne Smith’s support of 24% of all respondents looks quite different from 43% of decided respondents, though in this poll, both are accurate. At 24%, she could double her support and still not have a majority.
A campaign veteran with plenty of experience who has zero connection to the Smith campaign told me, “It was likely a legit poll.” The veteran didn’t believe you could conclude much from answers to the question “if the election were held today, would you vote for…” at this point, believing that the results will be with 2 to 3 points of each person’s name ID. But added, “Verne knows what he is doing.”
Which is what I meant earlier when I said that these #’s are a starting point. Nailen, James, or someone could spend a lot of money, buy a lot of name ID, and begin to make it a race. (Luther Strange had no name ID against Wallace and then Folsom in the Lt. Gov race, but spent enough to make it very close.)
BTW, a Dothan Eagle story doesn’t have the #’s quite right. It mistakenly reports that “Smith led the way with support from 43 percent of the respondents.” The story did not factor in the undecided respondents, and you can see that because the %’s in the story (including undecideds) added up to 132%. The poll actually showed that Smith had support of 24% of the respondents. (Other good info in the story though.)
More to come today.
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The race looks wide open. May the best man or woman win. I am glad this was corrected so Thanks to Danny!!!!!!!!
Comment by GOPer — November 2, 2007 @ 1:08 pm
Thank you Danny.
Comment by PikeCountyguy — November 2, 2007 @ 1:09 pm
I was surprised how negative the anti-Smith people were on this poll when you first posted it Danny. Given that shes a state senator it shouldnt shock anyone to see
that she’s currently leading at the moment. But theres still seven months to go
before the primary…so its anyones ballgame.
Comment by dan t — November 2, 2007 @ 1:47 pm
It seems the question I posed when the first post regarding this poll was published proves even more true: Considering that Harri Anne Smith only leads Tim James by nine percent, is she willing to fight to win? James will outspend the other candidates and will have the ability to buy name ID, as Danny suggests in this post. With that in mind, is Smith willing to fight a long and grueling campaign for a prize she may never attain?
Comment by Will — November 2, 2007 @ 4:12 pm
Agree with Will that James is well positioned and I have my doubts as to Smith’s resolve to actually work hard to win this race and moreover, to work hard and fight for district 2 while in Congress. The US Congress is not exactly the State Senate after all.
Comment by PikeCountyguy — November 2, 2007 @ 9:28 pm
[…] AL-02 Poll: New Numbers » Doc’s Political Parlor Posted Alabama Politics on Saturday, November 3rd, 2007. […]
Pingback by The World Around You » Blog Archive » New Poll Numbers in Alabama 2nd — November 3, 2007 @ 7:57 am
Senator Smith is a natural to be our next congresswoman. I’m not affiliated with her or her pseudo-campaign in any way so don’t accuse me of that. I live in Covington County and there has been much talk about her and I think south Alabama is very ready to elect her. She knows the district well and will be what we need in Congress: someone that will truly look out for us.
I’m not really sure about Jay Love or David Grimes running. They don’t leave Montgomery and would not be best for our district. The Montgomery folks have another thing coming if they think they’re gonna elect one of their own to represent all of us down here in lower Alabama.
Comment by jake — November 3, 2007 @ 2:46 pm
I doubt Smith is well known oustide of the three countied in her Senate district. Certainly not in Covington County. If she wants to win, she is going to have to hustle. All this talk about her being the natural candidate and the pre determined person to hold the job is ridiculous.
Comment by PIkeCountyguy — November 3, 2007 @ 3:30 pm
[…] You don’t have to think too hard to come up with scenarios where the vote could have gone differently considering that there were as many votes for others as for her, or considering that several voting members were not in attendance. On the other hand, she may have had it in her pocket all along. She had a favorable poll that showed she had a leg up on potential opponents, and those voting for other candidates did not organize into one anti-Smith bloc. […]
Pingback by Close Vote in Wiregrass Committee » Doc’s Political Parlor — November 9, 2007 @ 12:06 pm
[…] They did bite on the “43%” figure that someone near Sen. Harri Anne Smith’s campaign tried to push as a poll result for the percentage of people in the district who would vote for her, but Parlor readers know that that the real poll result was that 24%, not 43%, of respondents supported Smith. […]
Pingback by AL-02 Race Gets Notice » Doc’s Political Parlor — November 27, 2007 @ 3:04 pm