Comments on: AL-02 GOP Primary Poll #’s http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/ & Home of Lawn Mower Repair Sun, 07 Sep 2008 07:26:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 by: AL-02 Poll: New Numbers » Doc’s Political Parlor http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12205 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 17:43:34 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12205 [...] Why the different %’s from yesterday’s post? Here’s what happened. Someone in with the Smith campaign wanted to paint the best picture possible for its candidate, and so released the %’s for decided voters. That put Smith at 43%, James at 27%, and so on. Smith did not have the support of 43% of respondents, but had the support of 43% of respondents who had decided. The key to those results having any meaning was knowing what % of respondents were undecided. When I asked the polling company, I was told that “about 30%” of the respondents were undecided. [...] […] Why the different %’s from yesterday’s post? Here’s what happened. Someone in with the Smith campaign wanted to paint the best picture possible for its candidate, and so released the %’s for decided voters. That put Smith at 43%, James at 27%, and so on. Smith did not have the support of 43% of respondents, but had the support of 43% of respondents who had decided. The key to those results having any meaning was knowing what % of respondents were undecided. When I asked the polling company, I was told that “about 30%” of the respondents were undecided. […]

]]> by: PikeCountyguy http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12204 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 17:03:21 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12204 If Kennedy and Swinehart are people Smith hires and trusts then she has lost my support. If Kennedy and Swinehart are people Smith hires and trusts then she has lost my support.

]]> by: MH http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12182 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 04:06:10 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12182 PS, Thanks for missing me JT...even if we do butt heads. (wink) PS, Thanks for missing me JT…even if we do butt heads. (wink)

]]> by: MH http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12181 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 03:55:21 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12181 Please investigate the credibility of the polling company before making such broad generalizations and sweeping allegations. This poll was on the up and up. For name ID, Smith was listed as a banker, not as a senator, so as not to sway the vote in her favor as an incumbent senator. In adition to nmae ID, the cross section of people polled were also asked about favorbility. In short, anyone except Tim James would have to spend an exorbitant amount of money to get name recognition, then they would have to spend another exorbitant amount to overcome her favoribility by running a massive negative campaign. If Smith opts in, the race will be between her and James. As far as a Democrat taking the seat, the district is predominantly Republican. Enough people vote straight ticket (unlike yours truly), that a Democratic candidate doesn't have much chance of beig elected. In my not so humble, yet naive opinion, the winner of the Republican primary will take the seat. BTW, I'd like to remind posters that if you want us to take your posts seriously, and to help us keep straight who is posting what, please put <i>something</i> in the field as to who is making the comment. With multiple people not putting anything in that field, we have a lot of 'anonymous' posters. You don't have to use your real name, just put some kind of identifier in the field so we know if you are the same anonymous poster as the other anonymous posters. I don't care if you write Snoopy, Micky Mouse, or George Clooney, but please put something in the field, and try to use the ame pseudonym each time. My lupus is still flaring, so I'm trying to limit my time online and not get too riled up. But I will try to coem in and post a little something, as able. Please investigate the credibility of the polling company before making such broad generalizations and sweeping allegations. This poll was on the up and up. For name ID, Smith was listed as a banker, not as a senator, so as not to sway the vote in her favor as an incumbent senator. In adition to nmae ID, the cross section of people polled were also asked about favorbility. In short, anyone except Tim James would have to spend an exorbitant amount of money to get name recognition, then they would have to spend another exorbitant amount to overcome her favoribility by running a massive negative campaign. If Smith opts in, the race will be between her and James.

As far as a Democrat taking the seat, the district is predominantly Republican. Enough people vote straight ticket (unlike yours truly), that a Democratic candidate doesn’t have much chance of beig elected.

In my not so humble, yet naive opinion, the winner of the Republican primary will take the seat.

BTW, I’d like to remind posters that if you want us to take your posts seriously, and to help us keep straight who is posting what, please put something in the field as to who is making the comment. With multiple people not putting anything in that field, we have a lot of ‘anonymous’ posters. You don’t have to use your real name, just put some kind of identifier in the field so we know if you are the same anonymous poster as the other anonymous posters. I don’t care if you write Snoopy, Micky Mouse, or George Clooney, but please put something in the field, and try to use the ame pseudonym each time.

My lupus is still flaring, so I’m trying to limit my time online and not get too riled up. But I will try to coem in and post a little something, as able.

]]> by: Anonymous http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12173 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:54:04 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12173 Tim has it pegged. Consultant run polls mean nothing Tim has it pegged. Consultant run polls mean nothing

]]> by: Tim Wallace http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12172 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:45:00 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12172 Simply put, bogus poll. These fee seeking consultants will do anything to convince a candidate to sign them up. Simply put, bogus poll. These fee seeking consultants will do anything to convince a candidate to sign them up.

]]> by: JD http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12160 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 19:49:31 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12160 Help what if Harri Ann get elected we are in big trouble in Alabama. In order for her to help you must have old family name and money. Help what if Harri Ann get elected we are in big trouble in Alabama. In order for her to help you must have old family name and money.

]]> by: Cam Ward http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12144 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 03:08:44 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12144 Good point JT. Good point JT.

]]> by: JT http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12142 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 02:55:35 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12142 If dems think they can win in AL-02, especially during a Presidential election year with Hillary at the top of the dem ticket they are nuts. Bright would be the best candidate in my view, but even he knows this is a republican seat. In terms of what Cam said about Jay Loave already in the race, etc., believe me, others are making the rounds and already in the process of raising money or making plans to self finance. I doubt Love is ahead of anyone right now in that way. Everyone knows Love is in the race and I do agree the others better hurry up and decide soon. I still think Harri Anne and her supporters attitude of this is hers for the taking is amazingly misguided. It is wide open for those that want to fight for it. If dems think they can win in AL-02, especially during a Presidential election year with Hillary at the top of the dem ticket they are nuts. Bright would be the best candidate in my view, but even he knows this is a republican seat. In terms of what Cam said about Jay Loave already in the race, etc., believe me, others are making the rounds and already in the process of raising money or making plans to self finance. I doubt Love is ahead of anyone right now in that way. Everyone knows Love is in the race and I do agree the others better hurry up and decide soon. I still think Harri Anne and her supporters attitude of this is hers for the taking is amazingly misguided. It is wide open for those that want to fight for it.

]]> by: Setting the Record Straight http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12141 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 02:22:00 +0000 http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2007/10/31/al-02-gop-primary-poll-s/#comment-12141 Cam - When Mike Rogers seat was open he won by 2%. And in 2002, in the wake of 9/11 and the run up to war in Iraq, the environment favored Republicans. Now I think even you would admit the environment is trending in the Democrats favor, even in Alabama. And the GOP united behind Rogers early (his only opponent was Gerald Dial's mouthbreathing son), whereas AL-02 won't have a nominee until late June '08. Make no mistake about it, this COULD get interesting. Cam - When Mike Rogers seat was open he won by 2%. And in 2002, in the wake of 9/11 and the run up to war in Iraq, the environment favored Republicans. Now I think even you would admit the environment is trending in the Democrats favor, even in Alabama. And the GOP united behind Rogers early (his only opponent was Gerald Dial’s mouthbreathing son), whereas AL-02 won’t have a nominee until late June ‘08.

Make no mistake about it, this COULD get interesting.

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