Posted by Verne Kennedy of MRI Research confirmed some poll numbers that I came across. The numbers represent the % of support among decided voters for the GOP primary. About 30% of voters were undecided. Mr. Kennedy said that in races without an incumbent, undecided voters tend to break out about the same way that decided voters do. His firm conducted the poll for Harri Anne Smith’s campaign.
| State Rep. David Grimes | 9% |
| Greenville businessman Tim James | 27% |
| State Rep. Jay Love | 18% |
| Dothan businessman Charles Nailen | 5% |
| State Sen. Harri Anne Smith | 43% |
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While I would love to see Harri Anne Smith exit the Alabama Senate, I’d hate to see her representing the state of Alabama in Congress.
This poll is sooooo bogus……where did ole Vern do the polling – Houston & Butler Counties ? geeeesh.
If you were hired by a candidate who thought she was already the front runner, would you hit her with numbers that said otherwise…. The numbers most likely do have some bias, but until others are published, I won’t say they are totally bogus.
Pike Road momma – shame on you. You can say a lot of things, but do NOT trash Verne Kennedy. he is a thorough, professional pollster. Anyone in Alabama politics can tell you that.
Don’t take shots like that. It is dishonest of you to do so – especially anonymously.
Verne Kennedy is a respected pollster.
I will go further than that, Observer. Verne Kennedy has too much integerity to publish bogus numbers.
Amazingly biased poll. It all depends on how the question was asked and if it was truly conducted district wide.
http://isen.com/blog/2005/05/push-pollster-fired.html
Push Pollster Fired!
The Independent, a Lafayette Louisiana weekly, has fired perpetrator of push polling lie planter Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight (MRI) of Pensacola, Florida. According to this MRI blurb,
MRI’s people are different. They have a certain energy, a noticeable enthusiasm for what they do.
Indeed. Not a word about push polling on the MRI web site.
According to this Independent editorial, the sleezebags at MRI
had been doing research for us, polling consumer attitudes and behavior in the market area for our Acadiana Consumer Confidence Index editorial section . . . But once we learned that Kennedy and MRI were responsible for conducting last week’s anti-LUS fiber “push” poll to area residents, we immediately severed our relationship with him. Engaging in the sleazy business of push polling is a bridge too far for us.”
The editorial continued
When negative political advertising runs on TV, as disgusting as it often is, campaign finance laws require disclosure of the source of the ad, and we can measure the disinformation with the credibility of the opposing candidate or camp. Push polling tries to deny us, as voters, the ability to connect the dots between the lie and those who benefit from its telling. It should have no place in Lafayette.
Good for the Independent. Good for Lafayette.
I don’t have a dog in this fight, but it strikes me that firms like this who cannot deliver reliable #’s to their clients are not going to keep getting clients. (BTW, their client page includes a testimonial from Jeff Sessions.)
The commenter above quotes from a blog that quote from an editorial for The Independent Weekly. That same editorial says that MRI has an earned reputation for quality market research all over the South. The Independent Weekly does not care for MRI’s participation in a particular push poll but has no complaint with the quality of MRI’s work.
From the editorial that was referenced above in comment 7:
BTW, once you factor in that 30% are undecided, the % of support that the candidates have looks more like this (multiplying each candidate’s # by 70%):
Undecided – 30%
Grimes – 6%
James – 19%
Love – 13%
Nailen – 4%
Smith – 30%
Which, as a reader pointed out in email, means Harri Anne has a ways to go still to get to 50%.
This is just a starting point.
I actually don’t think he would have released the numbers unless they were correct, and Smith said it was OK. If he truly polled FOR HER, it would be unethical and highly suspect.
Danny — ask him if he did head to polling of any prospective Republicans vs. prospective Dems — I have heard there was a poll in the field asking these types of questions.
I’m told this particular poll did not ask about any Democrats. It asked about the Republican field and had some issue questions. (I didn’t get any particulars on the issue questions.)
Vern Kennedy and Mike Swinhart lost every race the had in Alabama in 2006 (with the exception of Harri Anne’s)
I would not take seriously a poll done by one of the candidates in the race. There are 50 different ways to manipulate poll #’s to tell the Board in Dothan exactly what Harri Anne
wants them to believe. Doing a poll of support 7 months from the election tells me nothing i and is more an indication of name ID. The issues haven’t been defined and this race is not registering on anyone’s radar but those running.
Here’s the question one should ask: Is Harri Anne Smith willing to fight? It’s a fair question. From this poll, one clearly sees that she has not yet reached the precious 50% margin despite having by far the best name ID of those the poll lists. We can also fairly assume that this poll probably inflates her numbers, although potentially by a small margin, based on her having commissioned the poll. In other words, to win this race, she is going to have to wage a long and grueling campaign, as opposed to having the nomination dropped in her lap, as some have implied would be the case.
So, I ask again, is Harri Anne Smith willing to fight?
I responded to that poll. I thought they were asking about Hairy ARM Smith.
Good comment by Will and bb. Polls of this nature are not a true picture of an election many months away other than a name ID poll. Also, the nomination will not, and should not be dropped in her lap as so many blissfull Harri Anne supporters think. I still don’t think she will run. She will show boat as others have said until she has sucked all the publicity she can out of it.
Don’t tell ‘Nurse Ratchet’ that I am out of bed and on the poli blogs. I just have to make one point, then I’m headed back to bed before ‘Nurse Ratchet’ gets back.
If Senator Smith had the poll run to determine whether she is a viable candidate for the seat, why would she ask someone to fudge the numbers? She would want an honest depiction of the numbers before she spends boat load of money on a campaign.
At least, that is what I would do if I were a politician.
OK, back to bed before I get in trouble. Shhhhhh……don’t tell ‘Nurse Ratchet’….
Hey MH – glad to have you back. I rarely agree with you but enjoy your posts.
OK I am going to break the trend and blog here under my real name. I know that is dangerous but here goes….. I think Vern Kennedy is one of the best pollsters in the business and has a very good reputation so his numbers are probably good. The big point here though is that this is likely just a name ID poll and nothing more so I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in these numbers except that they are a snap shot of where everything starts out. I personally believe Jay Love starts out in a real good position here. First, he is the only one who is actually IN THE RACE right now so he is out there working while everyone else is studying, and testing the waters. Second, he has the ability to grow his numbers more than the other candidates (Grimes probably does as well). He has the ability to fundraise and is already out there beating the bushes. Time will start becoming an issue believe it or not because June is really not that far away in the terms of an election. As for the Democrat candidate—- this seat will stay Republican regardless of who the nominee is. Any of those candidates who were polled could defeat any of the Democrat challengers mentioned. The most Democrat leaning congressional seat in the south is the one held by Rep. Mike Rogers and he continues to win big so why would this one be any different?
Rogers also has the advantage of incumbency. I think races are typically much more about candidates than political parties. There are several potentially strong candidates on the Republican side, but a guy like Bobby Bright could turn this into a decent race if the year trends strongly Democratic.
Cam – When Mike Rogers seat was open he won by 2%. And in 2002, in the wake of 9/11 and the run up to war in Iraq, the environment favored Republicans. Now I think even you would admit the environment is trending in the Democrats favor, even in Alabama. And the GOP united behind Rogers early (his only opponent was Gerald Dial’s mouthbreathing son), whereas AL-02 won’t have a nominee until late June ‘08.
Make no mistake about it, this COULD get interesting.
If dems think they can win in AL-02, especially during a Presidential election year with Hillary at the top of the dem ticket they are nuts. Bright would be the best candidate in my view, but even he knows this is a republican seat. In terms of what Cam said about Jay Loave already in the race, etc., believe me, others are making the rounds and already in the process of raising money or making plans to self finance. I doubt Love is ahead of anyone right now in that way. Everyone knows Love is in the race and I do agree the others better hurry up and decide soon. I still think Harri Anne and her supporters attitude of this is hers for the taking is amazingly misguided. It is wide open for those that want to fight for it.
Good point JT.
Help what if Harri Ann get elected we are in big trouble in Alabama. In order for her to help you must have old family name and money.
Simply put, bogus poll. These fee seeking consultants will do anything to convince a candidate to sign them up.
Tim has it pegged. Consultant run polls mean nothing
Please investigate the credibility of the polling company before making such broad generalizations and sweeping allegations. This poll was on the up and up. For name ID, Smith was listed as a banker, not as a senator, so as not to sway the vote in her favor as an incumbent senator. In adition to nmae ID, the cross section of people polled were also asked about favorbility. In short, anyone except Tim James would have to spend an exorbitant amount of money to get name recognition, then they would have to spend another exorbitant amount to overcome her favoribility by running a massive negative campaign. If Smith opts in, the race will be between her and James.
As far as a Democrat taking the seat, the district is predominantly Republican. Enough people vote straight ticket (unlike yours truly), that a Democratic candidate doesn’t have much chance of beig elected.
In my not so humble, yet naive opinion, the winner of the Republican primary will take the seat.
BTW, I’d like to remind posters that if you want us to take your posts seriously, and to help us keep straight who is posting what, please put something in the field as to who is making the comment. With multiple people not putting anything in that field, we have a lot of ‘anonymous’ posters. You don’t have to use your real name, just put some kind of identifier in the field so we know if you are the same anonymous poster as the other anonymous posters. I don’t care if you write Snoopy, Micky Mouse, or George Clooney, but please put something in the field, and try to use the ame pseudonym each time.
My lupus is still flaring, so I’m trying to limit my time online and not get too riled up. But I will try to coem in and post a little something, as able.
PS, Thanks for missing me JT…even if we do butt heads. (wink)
If Kennedy and Swinehart are people Smith hires and trusts then she has lost my support.
[...] Why the different %’s from yesterday’s post? Here’s what happened. Someone in with the Smith campaign wanted to paint the best picture possible for its candidate, and so released the %’s for decided voters. That put Smith at 43%, James at 27%, and so on. Smith did not have the support of 43% of respondents, but had the support of 43% of respondents who had decided. The key to those results having any meaning was knowing what % of respondents were undecided. When I asked the polling company, I was told that “about 30%” of the respondents were undecided. [...]