Columnist Steve Flowers is reporting this week that the path to the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nomination may be clearing for Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom:
His two obvious challengers supposedly have resigned to not challenging Folsom. Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks and House Speaker Seth Hammett have told friends and supporters that they will not challenge Folsom.
No mention of Artur Davis.
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Alabama Line |
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Strong incumbent did not get a stiff challenge.
(D) Vivian Figures (19-1)
If Sessions had vulnerability, it was not to Figures.
(R) Jay Love (12-13)
Looks close. GOPers often boosted in prez election years.
(D) Bobby Bright (13-12)
Montgomery Mayor is Dems' best shot at the seat in a generation.
(R) Mike Rogers (1-4)
The power of incumbency and huge warchest should send him back to DC.
(D) Josh Segall (4-1)
Strong campaign. 2nd largest black population in any GOP House district.
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-99)
Wins in a cakewalk.
(D) Nick Sparks (>100-1)
Maybe another Sparks could make this competitive.
(D) Parker Griffith (9-11)
The favorite but will have to outperform the top of the ticket.
(R) Wayne Parker (11-9)
Hopes third time for the seat will be the charm.
(D) Lucy Baxley (17-18)
Former LG has name ID edge in a race that is a virtual tossup.
(R) Twinkle Cavanaugh (18-17)
Has firepower, and the R gets a boost in prez election year.
(R) Greg Shaw (2-3)
Some contributors felt he should be listed as an even stronger favorite.
(D) Deborah Bell Paseur (3-2)
Roundtable divided on her capacity to surprise.
The Alabama Line and its contents are the creation of Doc’s Political Parlor, reflect consensus from insiders and well-connected folks on both sides of the aisle, and will be updated as conditions change. These odds are meant to inform, entertain, and provoke, not to serve as actual means for losing money. Permission granted to use this material if PoliticalParlor.net is cited as the source.
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[…] Folsom’s Challengers Falling Away? » Doc’s Political Parlor Posted Alabama Politics on Tuesday, October 9th, 2007. […]
Pingback by The World Around You » Blog Archive » Davis Not a Challenger to Folsom? — October 9, 2007 @ 3:25 pm
What about the GOP nomination? I’ve heard Luther Strange is trying to clear the way but is getting resistance from some of the money guys in Birmingham.
Comment by Lyn Johnson — October 9, 2007 @ 3:43 pm
Looks like Folsom’s Coalition bein built right nice-like.
Comment by Anonymous — October 9, 2007 @ 4:45 pm
I can not imagine a Luther rematch for R’s against Jim would be a winner–
Comment by blue dot chuckles — October 9, 2007 @ 5:48 pm
Don’t count out Kay Ivey. She spoke at a meeting in Auburn last Friday and was most impressive. I think she will gain traction and run a strong race. Her record as treasurer is impressive.
Comment by Carey — October 9, 2007 @ 6:23 pm
Kay Ivey will give little Jim a run for his money. She’s sharp, articulate and has been the best Treasurer we’ve had. She hasn’t forgotten her roots. When she spoke to our chamber of commerce luncheon, she got 3 standing ovations.
Comment by Anonymous — October 9, 2007 @ 7:52 pm
Kay Ivey does not have a prayer in winning the Republican Primary. She lacks any source of substantial fundraising. Further, any argument that her tenure as Treasurer will propel her to the Governor’s Mansion is laughable at best. Fairly or unfairly, most view the Treasurer’s office as both a second tier position and one that one must make a substantial blunder in order handle poorly. “She didn’t mess up” hardly seems reason to vote for her. Then again, that seemed to be the basis of Lucy Baxley’s campaign. Look for Bradley Byrne to continue to emerge as the consensus Republican candidate in 2010.
Comment by Will — October 9, 2007 @ 11:38 pm
So you think Kay Ivey might get Byrned? Sorry, I couldn’t resist the pun.
Comment by Mike Ball — October 10, 2007 @ 8:18 am
I wonder if Folsom’s inability to run the senate will hurt him. He was unable to get consensus even for Thyssen-Krupp. Riley had to make that happen.
Comment by Margaret — October 10, 2007 @ 9:23 am
Ivey’s economic form on file with the Ethics Commission shows plenty of resources. Is that what you mean?
Comment by Lyn Johnson — October 10, 2007 @ 12:01 pm
Haha. Well done Mike. Somewhere in there is a poison Ivey/Byrne joke, but we must stay on point.
As for Lyn, the point I am making is that she has no base from which to raise funds. Even Troy King has Stan Pate to seek funds from. Who is going to give her money? The Riley crowd will be giving to Byrne while the Moore-ons will be giving to King.
Do not get me wrong. Kay Ivey is a sublimely nice lady, and I hope she remains involved in the Alabama political scene. That said, the jump from Treasurer to Governor, particularly in the current political climate, will prove too much.
Comment by Will — October 10, 2007 @ 1:51 pm
margaret-
I don’t know which Thyssen-Krupp debate you were watching, but as someone who was in the gallery the whole time, and read all the news reports, Folsom had more to do with getting it passed than Riley. Look back at the comments from Senators, even Republican Senators, and they gave him credit, as well. The Senate last year did not function well, but I believe that history shows that the first year of every quadrennium for about the last 20 years has similar problems (yes, even back before Windom and the jug), and that things settle down afterwards. There are more bitter feelings in the Senate this time, admittedly, because of the problems between the Senate majority and Senators Preuitt and Holley, but Folsom was not a part of that and seemed to be given high marks by people in both camps for working to smooth the troubled waters.
Comment by Paine — October 10, 2007 @ 4:35 pm
Folsom was barely engaged in the process. He seemed confused about the bill when it was introduced and had almost no control over the session until he looked so bad his people forced him to engage.
Comment by Carey — October 10, 2007 @ 8:12 pm