Can a Dem Win AL-02?
What would have to happen for a Democrat to win the seat being vacated by retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Terry Everett? The Cook Partisan Voting Index for the district is R +13, meaning that in the last two presidential elections the district voted Republican 13 percentage points higher than the nation as a whole did.
Alabama is an odd mix. A red state with two Democratic houses in the legislature. A Republican Governor and Democratic Lt. Governor. A Republican Supreme Court with a newly elected Democratic Chief Justice. I don’t hear that Democrats are ready to pack it up and go home on this race.
So I asked someone who gets paid to think about politics, “Can a Democrat win AL-02?”
A Democrat has to lock down the black vote (30%) and hope for a good turnout, hold the white Democrats that still exist in the Wiregrass (10-12%) and then steal some white Republicans. There are plenty of Democrats in this district who have experience winning with white Republican votes — Ron Sparks, Wendell Mitchell, Jim Byard, Jimmy Holley, Terry Spicer, and others. This type of Democrat could conceivably lock down the Dem base and have enough local appeal in a key area like suburban Montgomery or the Wiregrass to hold GOP margins down. In such a situation a Democrat could be very competitive and if able to raise money well, catch a few breaks, then it’s potentially doable. Also the GOP nominee will probably emerge broke after a competitive primary and probably runoff. Geography could certainly play large role in the race as well. A Wiregrass Democrat vs a Montgomery Republican might be the kind of matchup where a Democrat can eat into normally GOP turf with the hope that geography can trump party.
Certainly the smart money is on the GOP to hold it, and perhaps not break much of a sweat doing so. But if Democrats can recruit a good candidate (and there are a few out there) then things could stay interesting through November 2008.
A GOP elected official in the district echoed that in telling the Parlor that the GOP would be making a big mistake to take the general election for granted. The official believed that Republicans should hold the seat but quickly acknowledged that a Democrat could possibly slip in.
Likely? Certainly not. Possible? I believe we have seen more unlikely political outcomes.
Related Articles:
i just don’t see us mounting much of a fight since Everett has run practically unchallenged as of late. I certainly hope this isn’t true, but if we can’t muster anyone with a chance to run in my own third district, then I just don’t see it.
Comment by Talmadge East — September 27, 2007 @ 4:59 pm
Parties die when they decline to participate in the electoral process.
Comment by walt moffett — September 27, 2007 @ 6:29 pm
Walt is right. If the current Alabama Dems are so defeatist that we can’t come up with a good candidate for an open seat, in what is shaping up as another Democratic wave election, we need to step aside and let some new Democrats take over the party.
Comment by mooncat — September 27, 2007 @ 7:43 pm
“we need to step aside and let some new Democrats take over the party.” Paul Hubbert and Joe Reed said…NO!
Comment by TideGirl — September 27, 2007 @ 7:53 pm
The democrat congressional campaign committee will have plenty of money to be competitive against a republican.
Dax Swatek can’t hold a candle to those guys.
Comment by Cliff — September 27, 2007 @ 9:51 pm
Cliff, or Dax, or whoever you really are, you are better than that last post. When you use Democrat Party or Democrat Committee, when you mean DemcratIC Party or DemocratIC Committee, you out yourself as a Republican. Good try though.
(Maybe I should have let you keep tipping your hand, but I couldn’t resist calling your tell)
Comment by Anonymous — September 27, 2007 @ 9:59 pm
To the writer of post no. 6. If Dax Swatek really wrote post no. 5, why would he say that he can’t hold a candle to democratic political operatives?
Comment by Anonymous — September 27, 2007 @ 10:14 pm
It’s sad that yall are even having to consider that this Swatek fella has written anything on here. The way he performed down here in Baldwin County, seems like he should be out losing a race and not posting on a blog.
Comment by OldSpringhill — September 27, 2007 @ 10:32 pm
[…] Doc’s Political Parlor: Can Dem Win AL-02? Posted Alabama Politics on Friday, September 28th, 2007. […]
Pingback by The World Around You » Blog Archive » Can A Dem Win Alabama’s 2nd? — September 28, 2007 @ 6:06 am
Didn’t Larry Darby announce after his near-victory last year?
He might be the great White hope for Alabama in general,
and the Democratic party in particular.
Comment by Josh Goshen — September 28, 2007 @ 6:06 am
Mooncat, third party is the most rigorous but ideologically pure solution.
Comment by walt moffett — September 28, 2007 @ 7:55 am
As for Gov. Riley’s and the Republican’s political operative Dax Swatek- the repubs and the indians dumbed a ton of money into
an effort in 2006 to defeat State Rep. Terry Spicer–in addition to money the repubs threw every thing but the kitchen sink
at Spicer. Despite dump trucks of campaign contributions from Birmingham and Washington, DC and thousands and thousands of
untrackable indian money they still could not defeat Spicer. Swatek was the lead consultant who had political operatives in
and out of the district for over a year attempting to dig up dirt on Spicer. When they could not dig up anything legit they
went to the tried and true Swatek tactic of lying. Swatek and the Mike Hubbard cronies not only made personal attacks on
Spicer himself they then drug his spouse into the mix. Spicer’s own children were subjected to all types of harrassment which
was spearheaded by Swatek. It is widely known in Montgomery Swatek not only is a snot-nosed want-a-be political consultant who lives
off the wallet and influence of Billy Canary. Swatek and his presidential horse John McCain should stick to what they know
which is coming up with ways to further pad the pocketbook of Governor Riley’s son Rob Riley. I will give Swatek and the
repubs credit for one thing–they are the best at putting out senseless press releases that really look good. Look long enough
and you will find Swatek right at the table with Billy Canary, the Justice Department, and Riley–Mike Hubbard is sweeping up
their crumbs after dinner- He is a good servant.
Comment by The Truth — September 30, 2007 @ 11:36 am
The Dems need to try everything they can do to get Bright in the Running,He’s the top man.
Comment by Tip — November 12, 2007 @ 1:47 pm