Alabama Line Updated
The latest update for the Political Parlor’s Alabama Line is below. Many thanks to the elected officials, consultants, and other insiders who were willing to consider the likelihood of various public figures actually being elected to the offices listed.
Alabama Line
Senate Line
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-14)
Would take a Larry Craig-type revelation to shake up this race.
(D) Vivian Figures (22-1)
Minuses: Shares Sessions’ geographic base, not well-known and doubts on $.
(D) David Marsh (OFF)
A rumor here, a rumor there, but we haven’t seen that they have legs.
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Pete Johnson (OFF)
Said August 3 that he will not run. (B’ham News, 8/4/07)
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
AL-1 Line
(R) Jo Bonner (1-19)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (40-1)
Uphill climb with zero name recognition.
AL-2 Line
(R) Terry Everett (1-14)
Retirement rumors on hold.
AL-3 Line
(R) Mike Rogers (1-9)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
AL-4 Line
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-19)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1)
See Benjamin Lodmell above.
AL-5 Line
(D) Bud Cramer (1-12)
Can’t be too comfortable knowing GOP Pres nominee will carry district.
(R) Ray McKee (33-1) NEW
The district gives him slightly better odds than other House challengers.
AL-6 Line
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-19)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
AL-7 Line
(D) Artur Davis (1-19)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems’ leading lights.
Governor Line (2010)
(D) Jim Folsom (7-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Mike Hubbard (9-1)
Party chair’s 2010 future may depend on success of ALGOP in 2008.
(D) Artur Davis (10-1)
Looks like someone who wants to test his statewide appeal.
(R) Bradley Byrne (11-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
(D) Seth Hammett (14-1)
Will risk averse Speaker finally take his shot at gold ring?
(R) Troy King (14-1)
Controversy again. And again. Still highest ranking GOP’er likely to run.
(R) Luther Strange (14-1)
Apparently running for something. An open AG race might be best fit.
(D) Ron Sparks (14-1)
Talking about this race, that race and another. Will he run for Gov.?
(R) Kay Ivey (15-1)
Questions about whether she can compete in $. Many think she’ll run.
(R) Tony Petelos (16-1)
No signs yet that he is reaching beyond the Hoover city walls.
(R) Beth Chapman (18-1)
We keep getting warned about underestimating her ambition.
(D) Mike Dow (20-1)
Quiet. Maybe legit contender, should be active sooner rather than later.
(?) David Bronner (22-1)
Able RSA manager & oft-rumored candidate could be strong.
(R) Jack Hawkins (25-1)
Troy Chancellor rumored to be considering a campaign.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (25-1) NEW
Like Hawkins: small, loyal core support. Mostly unkown elsewhere.
(R) Rob Riley (70-1)
Ambitious family and persistent rumors of run. Still longshot.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Tim James (75-1)
Hard to rule him out as candidate until deadline has passed.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(R or I) Stan Pate (75-1)
Rumor says GOP curmudgeon considering. Perhaps as Independent?
(L) Loretta Nall (>100-1)
Virtually impossible to win when you can’t get on the ballot.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
Related Articles:
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
The only real interesting race here is for Governor. Troy King is damaged goods and he loses no matter what he runs for. He can’t win the GOP nomination for Governor. Luther Strange will finish him off in the primary for AG. King should get close to Sessions or Shelby and hope for a judicial appointment. Otherwise, it is back to Elba.
Comment by Cliff — September 24, 2007 @ 9:31 pm
I think it is back to Elba, not matter. Sessions and Shelby both are fed up with King.
Comment by Ronald Bass — September 25, 2007 @ 4:39 pm
I love how the yella fella just goes wandering into the kitchen to chat with the kids on his commercial. It sort of reminds me of those guys on Dateline to catch a predator who go wandering into the kitchen with a six pack of wine coolers expecting to meet some kid.
Comment by jason — September 25, 2007 @ 6:30 pm
Just got an e-mail from a friend announcing that there will be no incumbent in the Second District thanks to a Terry Everett retirement. So you might want to add Jay Love and Bobby Bright to the line for that race. Nice little Republican and Democrat that were waiting patiently.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — September 26, 2007 @ 9:39 am
[…] If you are a first-timer, you might enjoy reading about the site. Our top posts will give you a sense of what we have been talking about before. Or since a mention of Jack Hawkins’ chances of being the next governor is what brought you here, you might want to start here with the Alabama Line. […]
Pingback by Welcome, Troy Messenger Readers » Doc’s Political Parlor — November 11, 2007 @ 6:35 pm
[…] Speculation 2010 December 27, 2007 — William Wyatt Wallace A friend of mine pitched an idea to me a few weeks back, actually this caused me to come back to the blogging world, that he would like to see a running list of people considering/rumored to be considering running for the State Constitutional Offices in 2010. It will be run similar to the Alabama Line and AL-02 Big List at Doc’s Political Parlor. If you have any suggestions to add please let me know. […]
Pingback by Speculation 2010 « Real Alabama Politics — December 27, 2007 @ 9:28 am
I wonder if y’all have updated the “Line” lately, and if you think any or the Congressional races might be getting a little more competitive. A couple of the challengers have been pretty active and vocal, and voter dissatisfaction with incumbents continues to rise. I’m not saying your “Line” is wrong - just asking if you think it is still accurate.
Comment by Norm in Atmore — January 6, 2008 @ 10:50 am
Hi Norm,
It’s time for the Line to be updated… was trying to let the AL-02 race shake out a bit… let Bobby Bright, Tim James, and maybe other announce their plans/intentions.
Which Congressional challengers do you think have been most active and vocal?
Thanks,
Danny
Comment by Danny — January 7, 2008 @ 12:35 am
[…] For reference, the previous Alabama Line may be found here. […]
Pingback by New Alabama Line » Doc’s Political Parlor — February 29, 2008 @ 5:39 am