What’s the 2008 Hillary Effect?
The question has been raised (at Left in Alabama and The World Around You) about what effect Hillary Clinton might have on downticket races in Alabama if she is the Democratic nominee for president.
Earlier in the year, I heard two staunch Democrats, more “inside” than most, commenting on that fact that the presidential nominations process is quite front-loaded, and that we might know who the nominee is by, say, March. If Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee before the qualifying deadlines for 2008 state races, she might be perceived as being such a negative for Democrats in Alabama races that GOP state chair Mike Hubbard might have some leverage to encourage candidates who would run as Democrats to switch parties. Or so the observation went.
On the other hand, a reader sent in some poll results (posted at the lefty blog Daily Kos and said to be from SurveyUSA) on how Clinton matches up in Alabama with three GOP candidates.
SurveyUSA. 8/13. Registered voters. MoE 4.3%.
Alabama. 9 Electoral Votes. Bush won 2004 by 26%. (7/16 results)
Clinton 44 (39)
Giuliani 50 (54)Clinton 47 (41)
Thompson 49 (55)Clinton 48 (44)
Romney 46 (49)
I know that earlier some Alabama Republicans were salivating at the thought of having Clinton at the top of the ticket. Can Clinton come on strong enough to mitigate any negative downticket effect that many would normally expect her to have?
Many miles yet to go.
Thanks to reader A!
Yeah but Alabama elections are so spaced that nothing extremely significant and non-local will be on the ballot. All legislative and executive offices are in off years. Most of the local races are decided by individual more than party. The biggest race this might affect dramatically will be Harold See’s judicial seat.
Comment by Dan — August 22, 2007 @ 11:05 pm
If things stay the same I could see Hillary picking off a few southern states like her so called hubby did in ‘92. But I seriously doubt the race in Alabama will be close in the end.
Comment by mr turnbow — August 23, 2007 @ 9:17 am