Langford Leading in Birmingham Mayor’s Race?
I have info from a couple of interesting conversations regarding the mayor’s race in our state’s largest city… plus a note about BCA’s Bill Canary at the end.
First… I was talking about another matter to a friend often-in-the-know, and at the end he volunteered that it looked like Larry Langford may be locking up the Birmingham mayor’s race. He said that traditional business groups like Alabama Power and the Business Council of Alabama were behind Langford and that he had big money behind him.
He said the Senate Democratic caucus “is throwing money behind Carole Smitherman,” presumably as part of a deal involving husband Rodger Smitherman’s last-minute switch from one Senate caucus to another. But, he said, “her campaign is going no where. Carole hasn’t demonstrated anything.” No plan, no vision, no organization, he said. I have heard elsewhere that she does not seem particularly engaged by the campaign.
No one is running a “field race,” he said, except Patrick Cooper who he said will “probably be outfunded.” He added that Cooper may surprise. If funding comes through for him, “then it’s ‘Hello, Mr. Mayor.’”
He added that because there has not been a lot of evidence of organization besides Cooper’s campaign, we may be looking at an “air war” of TV ads among those who have the funding.
Immediately after, I was contacted by someone close to the Langford campaign who also wanted to make the case that Langford was “locking up” the mayoral race.
He said The Birmingham News had done some polling which shows “Langford at 43%, Cooper at 8%, [incumbent Bernard] Kincaid mid-20’s.”
Langford has high name recognition but also provokes strong negative reactions among some. That last 7% may be tough. In 1999, interim mayor William Bell had a large lead over the field, but other candidates’ supporters apparently were united in their opposition to Bell. Bell couldn’t reach 50% and was defeated by Bernard Kincaid in a close run-off.
I asked about Langford’s support from business groups. He answered that it was no secret that Langford was close to Alabama Power, but said that BCA was not involved in the race. The heavy hitters in the Birmingham race would be locals like George Barber and Giles Perkins.
As for the promised BCA note, I hear that BCA President and CEO Bill Canary had a serious bike accident yesterday that involved broken ribs and other problems that will require surgery but that are not life threatening. We wish him a full and speedy recovery.
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I cannot possibly tell you how happy I am that I don’t live in B’ham knowing that they might elect Larry Langford mayor.
Comment by Brian — August 22, 2007 @ 9:00 pm
Isn’t it the same Bham News that said last November that Riley was 33% ahead of Lucy & Strange was 12% ahead of Little Jim?? BN’s margin o’ error is plus/minus 15 points.
Comment by Dan — August 22, 2007 @ 11:32 pm
[…] Many people in the city feel as though the former Jefferson County commission president already has the mayor’s office on the third floor of city hall in downtown Birmingham locked up. Doc’s Political Parlor made this post on August 22 that gave the idea that many believed it was only a matter of waiting for the votes to be tallied on October 9. […]
Pingback by Election ‘07: The spotlight’s on Langford — August 24, 2007 @ 11:36 am
I think that it is a good ideal for Larry Lanford to be running for Mayor of the City of Birmingham because I believe that if he can rebuild Fairfield and make it a nice place to live, shop and for entertainment and that community is that small imagine what he can do for the City of Birmingham. He has my vote.
Comment by Victoria — August 24, 2007 @ 12:17 pm
I don’t believe that poll. I agree with Dan this is the same organization that had Lucy Baxley
winning over Governor Riley. I cannot not find anyone supporting Mayor Kincade. I work for the
city of Birmingham and even people at city hall is ready for him to go. I believe this is an attempt
to discourage voters. I’m a Patrick Cooper supporter and I know he will defeat Langford in the run-
off. I’m also a white voter and I’m tired of everyone thinking I’m going to vote for Valerie Abbot
because she is white. Tha is nonsense, I know she doesn’t have a chance to win the general election.
I’m voting for the person I feel that will take this city to the next level and that’s Patrick Cooper,
this has nothing to do with race. All the Valerie Abbott supporters should take a look at their
candidate. She is part of that “Do Nothing ” city council. She also supports Kincade on everything
he wants. She is also against the police and fire fighters raises. Soon we will not have anyone
patroling our streets because they will be working for Hoover PD. It will be a Langford/ Cooper run
off with Cooper winning.
Comment by Davey — August 24, 2007 @ 1:45 pm
Don’t you think if the Birmingham News had done some polling they would publish it in the paper? This supposed “poll” with Langford way ahead sounds suspiciously like Langford propaganda.
Comment by Will — August 24, 2007 @ 4:40 pm
Will, I expected the News would publish it, but I certainly wanted to indicate that my info came from a source that was not independent.
If the #’s were legit and they were planning to publish them, they may re-think this since the poll was taken before the news broke that the SEC has subpoenaed documents from Langford.
Comment by Danny — August 24, 2007 @ 9:51 pm
I like this quote given today’s front-page article in the Bham News about candidate fundraising.
“….No one is running a “field race,” he said, except Patrick Cooper who he said will “probably be outfunded.” He added that Cooper may surprise. If funding comes through for him, “then it’s ‘Hello, Mr. Mayor.’”
Looks like Cooper’s funding HAS come through, and it is from the people who want to see change in Birmingham, not from PACs and special interests!
Comment by S — August 25, 2007 @ 10:10 am
Danny, you have an interestingly defensive reference to this so-called poll you so quickly posted to your site that The News conducted, but somehow never published. Again, think about why you would publish this “information,” who your “source” on it was and why The News would be in the business of paying for a poll and not publishing it. Once you answer those questions, I think you’ll realize how used you were on this. Perhaps it will encourage you to be more careful about who you listen to. Oh, and before you suggest that The News didn’t publish their “poll” because somehow it didn’t report the results it wanted, remember it’s The News. They can make it up anyway without paying for another poll, right?
Comment by Jim — August 25, 2007 @ 3:02 pm
S,
Good observation… and very interesting! I want to post on that.
Jim,
Defensive? Not at all. I was as forthright and straightforward as I knew to be.
As for the source close to the Langford campaign, it is someone I know personally from before he had any connection with the campaign.
Used? As I said, I was straightforward as I knew to be. If you don’t think a conversation with someone close to the Langford campaign is interesting and can be evaluated by readers for what it is, then so be it. It was all the more interesting to me because of the earlier conversation I had initiated with someone not connected directly to any campaign.
I don’t see that transparency is lacking in the post. I didn’t oversell. (Even the post title questions the premise.) I presented it for what it was.
I do appreciate your thoughts. Thanks!
Danny
Comment by Danny — August 25, 2007 @ 9:08 pm
I think your close source to the Langford campaign is Frank Matthews. He is definitly not credible. I would like the News
to elaborate on who they were polling and give us a legitimate poll, not some Langford propraganda. If Frank Matthews is involved
you know you have to question it.
Comment by Davey — August 26, 2007 @ 9:09 am
Davey boy ,not me this time, don’t like polls ;but Larry will beat, that little knows pattie coopie.
Comment by blackassdog — August 26, 2007 @ 7:51 pm
About Valerie Abbott, William Bell, and Carole Smitherman. The poll doesn’t give accurate account on their percentage.
I understand most of us dislike the Birmingham city council but they do have a wacky following. I know it would be more
than the percentage the News is given it. I also agree with Kincade on one thing, the city council election should be held
the same time as the mayor’s race. Well, I don’t believe this Larry Poll. Oct. 9 we will know how much these polls know.
Kincade will be gone this year and all the wanna-be mayors Abbott,Smitherman,Bell will be gone next year.
Comment by Davey — August 27, 2007 @ 9:31 am
[…] Birmingham attorney Patrick Cooper reported an eye-opening $400,000-plus raised for his mayoral campaign, according to the 45-day finance disclosure forms filed yesterday. (And there were doubters.) The Birmingham News reports that the crowded field of candidates raised a total of $857,521. Perhaps as interesting as Cooper’s total was that “Most of Cooper’s contributions came from individuals and businesses, with just $6,000 coming from political action committees.” […]
Pingback by Candidate Cooper Collects Copious Cash for B’ham Mayor’s Race » Doc’s Political Parlor — August 27, 2007 @ 10:08 am
Davey in comment 11,
It is still true now (as it was before) that I will not confirm or deny the identify of a source who wishes to remain anonymous.
I hope it is obviously true that if I deny someone is a source, then on another occasion when I cannot deny that someone is a source, that person would be outed. So guess all you want on this or other unnamed sources, but there is no good ending to a story that starts with me acknowledging that someone is not a source.
You may wish to know that comment #12 is from Mr. Frank Matthews himself.
Danny
Comment by Danny — August 27, 2007 @ 1:59 pm
Well, I feel that know matter who is in the mayors seat that they will still have touble filling all the open spots in the Fire/Police forces. Now that it has hit the crisis level everyone wants to just throw money at it. It will take a total restructure from the top down to make people want to come on board. I feel that Cooper or Lankford will be the two it comes down to choosing from. It is good that the FOP stepped up and picked someone, I was not suprised to see it not being Kincade. Bell would do a good job but I do not know if the people with money will jump on his train. I will just be glad to see the current leader moving out and hopefully the dome issue that the county voted NO on 5 years ago will be put to bed. We need jobs and better infustructure more than a dome for the high school teams to play in.
Comment by Little Johnny — September 10, 2007 @ 9:18 am
The F.O.P. is brain dead when it comes to the person they are supporting. Bell lost twice to Kincade. F.O.P. I thought
you had a credible organization, I guess the Birmingham Lodge didn’t inform the officers they serve, because I talked to
about 20 officers at a highschool game and all stated they were not going with the F.O.P.’s choice. Most officers stated
they will vote for Cooper and some said they were going to vote for Langford. I could not find one to say they were voting
for Kincade or Bell. F.O.P. wake up, it’s time for a change.
Comment by Davey — September 11, 2007 @ 12:11 am
How about Bell getting endorsed by both the police and firefighters. In a city filled with so much crime; it means a lot that they all have rallied behind one man (William Bell). I believe he has a true passion and love for this city and HE WILL GET SOMETHNG DONE!
Comment by J.J. — September 12, 2007 @ 6:17 pm
Larry Langford will be a great mayor because he has proven results as the mayor of fairfield. He even wanted to make a change that everyone agreed to as the county commissioner. Birmingham needs results now and not later. The largest city in Alabama is declining rapidly and we are holding conversations with people who does not live in the city. I feel out of all of the candidates Larry Langford is the best hope for Birmingham.
Comment by Mr. Smith — October 2, 2007 @ 11:38 am
[…] The eye-opener here is Carole Smitherman’s figures. All that money that supposedly came her way through her husband’s decision to switch from one Senate caucus to another, well… it bought some pricey votes. […]
Pingback by Bham Mayoral Race: $ Raised per Vote » Doc’s Political Parlor — October 12, 2007 @ 2:37 pm