On the 2010 Governor’s Race
Collected thoughts on the 2010 governor’s race…
A friend and reader writes in email:
I think the sentiment in your recent post is right, “I think the one thing that is absolutely certain is that with the Governor’s seat being open for the first time in 8 years, everyone who has ever thought about running will at least be making noises about it, at least in the early stages.” But really this is the first open seat since 1986. 90 Hunt ran for re-election, 94 Folsom who had been elevated from LG, 98 Fob got beat, 02 Siegelman got beat, 06 Riley won re-election. So it will really be 24 years since the last real open seat, and oh how the state has changed since then.
If it is 24 years before it is this wide open again, no wonder so many are said to be thinking about running.
Reader Justin has been thinking about the governor’s race:
2010 is a long way away. At this point in the last cycle, Riley looked like a dead man walking after Amendment 1 failed, and a short 3 years later he wins with about 60%. I think there are quite a few parallels between the ‘08 presidential race and the ‘10 governor’s race - wide open GOP field, a presumed Dem frontrunner who’s a blast from the past. Not unlike the Clinton years, the past Folsom years aren’t remembered fondly by everyone. There’s room for an Obama-like candidate to present a “fresh face” and give Folsom a scare in the primary (and it’s all too tempting to think that candidate could be Artur), but I think, like Hillary, Folsom gets the nod. Like Hillary, he’s not a lock for the general, but give him the advantage, for now.
The big difference: Bush is a net negative on the eventual GOP nominee; Riley will be, in all likelihood, a net positive. At the moment, I think Folsom has the inside track, but he’s even less a lock than Hillary, b/c her election is just over a year away, his is more than 3 years away. It’s entirely possible that by 2010 we’ll be wondering why we ever thought Folsom was the frontrunner, kinda like people are saying about McCain today. Then again, we may be wondering why we ever thought anyone other than Folsom had a chance.
Byrne’s main advantage, for now, is everything he does is presented positively and covered prominently by the newspapers. They are largely responsible for uncovering the legislator/two-year college nexus, and they’re going to write glowingly of everything Byrne does to shut it down.
That last paragraph I find particularly interesting.
Speaking of Artur Davis, he is speaking openly about a possible gubernatorial run:
“People ask the obvious question: can a skinny black guy with a funny first name get elected to office? I’m glad there’s one running for president. It makes it a little easier,” Davis said, referring to friend Sen. Barack Obama.
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In order to run for Governor, Bryne will have to start organizing next year and be ready to fund rase in June of 2009. There is no way he will be finished dealing with the Jr. Colleges by that time. He commited to the Governor that he would not serve as an interim Chancellor so the bureaucrats would know he will be there for years on end. There is just no way he can do what he needs to do and be in a position to run for Governor. As Byrne said in his recent editorial, no man can serve two masters. He has to choose between Chancellor of the Jr. Colleges or candidate for Governor. I think Byrne has made the choice. I don’t think he will be a candidate.
Comment by David — August 9, 2007 @ 4:10 pm
Davis is comparing himself to Obama and Obama is not doing that great in the polls. At this
point, there are three years left, Davis would loose to Folsom. Davis is not well liked in
the black community. I could see Davis running before Sparks. Sparks would be a team player
and run for Lt. Gov.
Comment by GG — August 9, 2007 @ 5:20 pm
I’m bothered a lot by that last paragraph. It sounds like the newspapers have chosen a side in this controversy and don’t plan to print anything that doesn’t support their view. That’s a lot like the way the media helped Bush build the case to invade Iraq over WMDs. If you ask me, this isn’t the proper role of a free press. Of course, no one ever asks me …
Comment by mooncat — August 9, 2007 @ 6:26 pm
Artur will have trouble raising money. Folsom, will be like Fred Thompson: Marsha wants it more than he does.
Artur would probably BE a better Governor, but look at Folsom’s last campaign and tell me a Democrat who has run a better one in 24 years.
Comment by Anonymous — August 9, 2007 @ 9:10 pm
Artur is fast losing support in the business community. He has turned his back on his friend Billy and Leura Canary and that is completely unacceptable to many donors. If you live by the sword you’ll die by the sword.
Comment by Geoff — August 9, 2007 @ 10:32 pm
Artur is still a man insearch of himself. Strip away his rhetoric and he is a sad man looking forrelevancy and trying to find purpose. He’ll never be Governor because he only believes in the “high” of running for office. In many ways, he is the democrat’s Troy King albeit with an education.
Comment by Cliff — August 10, 2007 @ 6:03 am
I disagree vehemently with that last post, although I do think Artur Davis’ style is probably more suited to the legislature than to the Governor’s office.
Comment by SamfordDem — August 10, 2007 @ 10:26 am
This sounds crazy now I’m sure, but look for Kay Ivey to make a strong run in 2010. She is getting older and I think she wants to move up, but not repeat what our last Treasurer did. She has a lot of untapped grassroots support and could position herself as the Riley crowd’s choice if Hubbard doesn’t catch fire.
Comment by John — August 10, 2007 @ 12:02 pm
The idea that a candidate has to start organizing to run for governor next year is absurd. Fred Thompson, anybody?
Comment by Anonymous — August 10, 2007 @ 4:50 pm
Bob Riley started running at the GOP convention in 2000 and opened a campaign office in 2001. The early bird gets the worm and most of the campaign organization!
Comment by Cliff — August 10, 2007 @ 4:55 pm
A Davis vs. Folsom primary would in many ways represent the doomsday Democrats hope to avoid. It would be the African American wing of the party against the public service unions. This, of course, assumes Sparks does not run as well. If that happens, a runoff is almost assured which, assuming such a runoff occurred between Davis and Folsom, would be anyone’s race.
If I were Folsom, I would find a way to keep Davis out of the race. Otherwise, whoever wins the nomination will find himself too damaged to find victory in the general election.
Comment by Will — August 10, 2007 @ 11:06 pm