Early Notes on SD 32 GOP Primary Results
An Alabama campaign veteran was watching the special election in Senate District 32 with some interest and was willing to offer some early thoughts on the results.
Here’s my first blush reaction:
Lipscomb obviously tanked. I do think it’s legit that he was doing well in polls until recently, but that was solely name ID. Among the voters who are more engaged and who will turn out in special elections, they know enough to know they’re through with him. It’s difficult to poll a special election because it’s very difficult to tell who the electorate is. Had it been a regular primary, the poll numbers would have probably been closer to the actual outcome.
The two candidates who were up on tv saw their vote take off. McKinney was up longer than Pittman and saw more expansion. Amidst all the conjecture about turnout and “grassroots” this is yet another example of the candidate(s) who are able to communciate their message seeing results.
Also you have to imagine that McKinney got a little bump from the 2-year college headlines in the last week. Republicans who were not in the McKinney camp were suspicious that the timing behind the Byrne announcement was just a way for Byrne/Riley to help their buddy McKinney, and put McKinney’s issues in the forefront of voters’ minds going into the polls.
I will say that if it is true that McKinney had a substantial money advantage over Pittman and won by less than 7%, it makes me a little nervous if I’m a McKinney guy. [Parlor Note: McKinney raised approximately 160% of Pittman’s total.]
I am sure McKinney’s money advantage will continue to exist but it’ll be interesting to see if the Montgomery GOP establishment doubles down on McKinney, or if Pittman’s strong second will make them have to play both sides a little. Also if there are any GOP-allied interests not on the McKinney bandwagon, jumping aboard with Pittman could be a strategic masterstroke since you could be one of just a few allies of Pittman’s compared to one of many with McKinney.
Despite the last minute phone calls, it’s apparent that the rumored union between Bishop and AEA was never consummated.
Those are my initial thoughts, and I think I’d bet on Pittman if forced at this point.
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Danny, with all due respect and no offense intended, is this the same individual who was trumpeting Lipscomb’s poll numbers in a previous post?
Comment by Will — August 8, 2007 @ 12:18 am
No, it’s not. One is an elected official, one is not.
And as for the other post, I would not choose the verb “trumpeting.” The elected official expressed surprise at the poll #’s, and expressed an expectation that Lipscomb could not win in the end. Not exactly praising Lipscomb.
The source for the poll is rock-solid. The source has no vested interest in the outcome of the election. (I think you can see that from the remarks.)
I am certain that any matter worth questioning about that has to do with the value of the poll, not the value of the source.
The poll could be flawed in some way, but I think it is as likely (or more) that the issue is more along the lines of what the observer in this post put in the first paragraph.
And no offense taken!
Comment by Danny — August 8, 2007 @ 12:43 am
Glad there was no offense taken. Should make for an interesting race.
Comment by Will — August 8, 2007 @ 2:37 am
Baldwin County has changed in the last 10 years, and the new residents are not the bumpkins
that Libscomb depended on in the past. Pitts will get the anti-condo, slow growth voters, and
will probably sneak by in the run-off. Baldwin County is a runaway train, with developers
at the throttle. McKinney’s big money friends will be his defeat.
Comment by Willie — August 8, 2007 @ 5:15 am
True true, Willie. But with a flailing real estate market, just how much support do you think Mckinney will recieve? Taxes and insurance will certaintly remain the big issues, but I’m curious to see if local infrastructure comes to the fore after the bridge collapse. 34 days and counting….
Comment by AJ IN FOLEY — August 8, 2007 @ 7:56 am
I just talked to a pal in Baldwin County–he serves on a
school board with Pittman (describes Pittman’s politics as
too conservative) but said Pittman survived a plane crash 6
months ago?
Called his wife to say good by–engine trouble.
The plane topped trees and skidded into a field of flames.
He spent several weeks in the South Alabama burn unit–my friend
just says Pittman has a great attitude re life now & that
is the reason (despite his politics)that he voted for him)
For what worth
Comment by Court Jester — August 8, 2007 @ 8:04 am
all of lipscomb’s people should break for Pittman and most of Bishop’s support came from when Pittman dominates
I predict Pittman wins 55-45
Comment by Harry — August 8, 2007 @ 8:08 am