Alabama Politics in
Doc’s Political Parlor
& Home of Lawn Mower Repair

July 17, 2007

Chance Next Pres is a Dem?

Filed under: Campaign & Election, National Politics — Danny @ 8:33 am

Keeping in the spirit of the Alabama Line update yesterday, I’ll mention a conversation I had recently with a small group of folks whose Democratic Party leanings provided them employment at one time or another.

Out of curiosity, I asked the partisan group, what do you think is the chance that the next President will be a Democrat, given where we are right now? The answers started at 80% and moved down to 60%.

And what is the likelihood that the next Democratic presidential nominee will not be one of the main three (Clinton, Obama, Edwards)? About 10%. Though one thought more.

FWIW.

Move along.

2 Comments »

  1. I’d say 60% is a good number. The Repubs still have a bigger benefit of the doubt on a lot of stuff, no matter what polls say.
    Also, I think it’s Hillary that has to slip for someone to pick up the slack, and I am hoping the guy standing there when it happens is Gov. Richardson.

    Comment by Anonymous — July 17, 2007 @ 8:39 am

  2. As James Carville recently said on C-SPAN, this presidential election is the Democrats to lose, but they are still very capable of losing it. I would say there is a 20% chance that Gore runs and, if he runs, about a 75% chance that he would be the nominee. That may sound wild but I think most people are looking hard for someone anyone but Hillary right now. I think Gore is a much stronger candidate now than he was in 2000. A Gore/Obama ticket would be the strongest possible Dem ticket. Every single Republican candidate has at least one glaring weakness. Giuliani has two: his personal life and his pro-choice stance. Romney is a Mormon. Thompson has his own share of personal issues and seems inexperienced. McCain lent his name to a terrible immigration bill.

    Comment by SamdfordDem — July 18, 2007 @ 11:42 pm

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