Posted by Keeping in the spirit of the Alabama Line update yesterday, I’ll mention a conversation I had recently with a small group of folks whose Democratic Party leanings provided them employment at one time or another.
Out of curiosity, I asked the partisan group, what do you think is the chance that the next President will be a Democrat, given where we are right now? The answers started at 80% and moved down to 60%.
And what is the likelihood that the next Democratic presidential nominee will not be one of the main three (Clinton, Obama, Edwards)? About 10%. Though one thought more.
FWIW.
Move along.
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I’d say 60% is a good number. The Repubs still have a bigger benefit of the doubt on a lot of stuff, no matter what polls say.
Also, I think it’s Hillary that has to slip for someone to pick up the slack, and I am hoping the guy standing there when it happens is Gov. Richardson.
As James Carville recently said on C-SPAN, this presidential election is the Democrats to lose, but they are still very capable of losing it. I would say there is a 20% chance that Gore runs and, if he runs, about a 75% chance that he would be the nominee. That may sound wild but I think most people are looking hard for someone anyone but Hillary right now. I think Gore is a much stronger candidate now than he was in 2000. A Gore/Obama ticket would be the strongest possible Dem ticket. Every single Republican candidate has at least one glaring weakness. Giuliani has two: his personal life and his pro-choice stance. Romney is a Mormon. Thompson has his own share of personal issues and seems inexperienced. McCain lent his name to a terrible immigration bill.