Kay, King, or Byrne would all kill him.

Comment by Anonymous — July 16, 2007

Uh, isn’t that exactly what they said about a little known congressman named Bob Riley back in 2001 and early 2002 – no name ID and no statewide grassroots orgainzation.

And Mike does have a statewide grassroots organization – it’s called the Alabama Republican Party and he is chairman of it.

Think before you type something stupid.

As for Folsom, I reiterate that the fact that he had 100% name ID and no party opposition is worth far more than you are giving credit. Do you honestly believe that if Strange had won his primary without a runoff or if George Wallace, Jr. had conceded before the runoff that the general election would have gone the same way?

Folsom is the strongest candidate right now, no doubt. The fact remains, however, that he had quite a bit going his way in 2006 that may not replicate itself in 2010.

DEMS:
1. Jim Folsom. Little Jim will do as Lucy Baxley, Steve Windom, Don Siegelman, etc. did before him and run for the highest office. He is probably currently seen as the Democratic candidate that can best attract votes from fence-straddlers, that huge population in Alabama that loves to split their tickets.
2. Seth Hammett. I haven’t heard much about him but look for him to make a surprise challenge to Folsom. Some will argue he has too low of name ID, but he is influential in Montgomery circles and would begin with very low negatives.
3. Artur Davis. This man has wanted to move up for a while now, and after deciding to pass on the Senate in ‘08 he may decide that the Gubernatorial race is his chance.
4. Ron Sparks. Even though he was the center of much hype for a while, I think that Sparks will forgo a Governor run in 2010 in what could be a contentious primary and probably pursue an open Lieutenant Governor’s office. He has high ambitions though, so keep an eye on Sparks.
5. Mike Dow. This Mobilian seems to be an upwardly mobile politician, but a 2010 Gubernatorial bid, against the likes of Democratic colleagues such as Folsom, Davis, and Sparks seems unlikely at this point. Still, 3 years is a long time and anything can happen.

GOP
1. Kay Ivey. In contrast to what a previous poster said, the Treasurer carries enough weight to be more than a “nice lady”. She would be a formidable opponent if she decided to run and would probably have wide bipartisan appeal. She is also flexing her political muscle by coordinating Romney’s Alabama campaign.
2. Bradley Byrne. This man has had quite a bit of press lately and will be held to high expectations in his new post. If he does not fumble the new job, Byrne might decide to jump into the highest office race. And if he does, look for a large amount of former Riley supporters to open their wallets.
3. Mike Hubbard. While he is cleaqrly grooming himself for higher office, Hubbard would have a harder path to the Governor’s office than some might suspect. His appeal to Democrats would be minimal. But don’t underestimate this adept multi-tasker, he has an avid group of followers in Montgomery that would be more than willing to propel him to victory.
4. Troy King. While AG King has encountered some major obstacles in the last couple of years, he is still an up-and-coming Republican politician in this state. A former Riley staffer, look for him to follow the ‘02 and ‘06 models closely. He would meet fierce opposition from the media for his candidacy, but he did so against Tyson and won.
5. Beth Chapman. The new Secretary of State is certainly getting a better rap in the media than did her predecessor. However, there are still questions as to whether Chapman has the desire to make a run for the state’s top office next cycle. She would face an uphill battle, but could conceivably win. However, definitely look for a run for re-election as SOS or possible Lieutenant Governor.
6. Luther Strange. Ole Big Luther seems poised to make another statewide run in 2010. But after losing the state’s #2 race, what would qualify him in the eyes of the voters to make a bid for the Governor’s office. Still, Strange showed he is a savvy campaigner and would still be a force to reckon with should he enter the race.
7. Jack Hawkins. Not active in politics on a statewide level, maybe a legislative run would be fmore fitting.
8. Tony Petelos. Tony who?

In conclusion, every person on this list has given more than a fleeting thought to running for governor. With Governor Riley exiting after eight years, every political group and associaton willl be searching for their next heir. As for now, we can only speculate as to whether he will end up running or if she has the itch. But that’s what makes Alabama politics so exciting!

Once again, the argument that Folsom somehow had to overcome something to win in 2006 is just ridiculous. He entered the race with 100% name ID and no party primary. Remember, he filed the last possible day. Some would say this was because he kept the field clear. It is more likely that he saw the opportunity to be his party’s nominee without having to face a primary, an odious task to be certain. Further, to imply that his saving money was somehow shrewd mischaracterizes the entire race. Of course Folsom did not spend any money until the general election. He did not have to spend a dime on a party primary. Even then, he did not have to establish name recognition in the same way as Strange did. He started with 100% name ID, as has been said previously.

I reiterate what I have already said: Folsom, by winning in 2006, became the frontrunner for Governor in 2010. With that said, do not think he will be able to replicate 2006 in 2010. He will certainly face opposition within the primary. He will not enjoy the Democratic monsoon 2006 represented. Republican voters who may be willing to crossover in a Lieutenant Governor’s race, a position largely seen as irrelevant, are far less likely to do so in the race for Governor. While Folsom’s 2006 victory was largely predicated on mindless populism, a victory in 2010 will have to be garnered through a battle of philosophies and issues, not Folsom’s strong points.

In 2006, from watching all the races, he ran the best. He kept his powder dry and let Luther use up all his money, while saving his until he could put together the best TV ads of the entire race (with all due respect to “This Little Light of Mine”.) And he still got outspent from start to finish by 2 or 3 to 1. Now he is complimented by members of the Senate on both sides of the division for his work trying to bring people together. And if he decides to run in 2010, he will probably decide earlier and be able to raise more money. And the best thing he did this past election was work behind the scenes to keep a clear primary. If that happens, watch out!

And for Gov. GOP won’t just roll over, but the smart candidates will stay away. I see a candidate that nobody knows who they are stepping up to room. I mean the one negative so far that people have on Folsom is when he broke the deadlock in the Senate. Only hardcore Republicans that wouldn’t vote for Folsom will hold it against him, the others will see it as he made the Senate start working the only way he could so that bills would be passed.

What indicates little experience?

WWW, your political instincts seem to indicate you have very little experience.

As for the Tyson thing, don’t feel the need to rebut me, just sit back and watch. Alabama is FULL of candidates who lost once (and badly) who made a valiant comeback to higher office.

Sparks is an attractive candidate on paper, remains to be seen what happens to him in a real race…same can be said for all of the named candidates but Folsom.

And, as was said above, and as Rep. Ward said, don’t underestimate Mike Hubbard. He is a fierce partisan fighter who is well known for his work in the trenches for the party…that leads to money, which leads to name recognition.