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The Political Parlor’s Alabama Line was created (and now updated) by insiders across the political spectrum who have given their takes on the 2008 U.S. Senate and U.S. House races, and the 2010 Governor’s race.
Many thanks to the elected officials, consultants, and other insiders who were willing to wade through this for us. As one wrote in email, “The one thing that is absolutely certain is that with the Governor’s seat being open for the first time in 8 years, everyone who has ever thought about running will at least be making noises about it, at least in the early stages.”
Considerable care went into thinking this through. Of course, a lot can change between now and election day, and, as always, your mileage may vary.
So without further ado… here is the Alabama Line complete with odds of candidates winning these various races… (remarks on candidates are kept quite short so that the Alabama Line may also fit into the sidebar)…
Alabama Line
Senate Line
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-14)
Might be safe even beyond a David Vitter-type revelation.
(D) Vivian Figures (22-1)
Minuses: Shares Sessions’ geographic base, not well-known and doubts on $.
(D) Pete Johnson (66-1)
Little chance of slipping past Figures in primary.
(D) David Marsh (75-1) NEW
Does Sessions sweat rumors from Bham of rich attorney running?
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
AL-1 Line
(R) Jo Bonner (1-19)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (40-1) NEW
Uphill climb with zero name recognition.
AL-2 Line
(R) Terry Everett (1-14)
Retirement rumors on hold.
AL-3 Line
(R) Mike Rogers (1-9)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
AL-4 Line
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-19)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1) NEW
See Benjamin Lodmell above.
AL-5 Line
(D) Bud Cramer (1-12)
Can’t be too comfortable knowing GOP Pres nominee will carry district.
AL-6 Line
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-19)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
AL-7 Line
(D) Artur Davis (1-19)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems’ leading lights.
Governor Line (2010)
(D) Jim Folsom (7-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Mike Hubbard (9-1)
Party chair’s 2010 future may depend on success of ALGOP in 2008.
(D) Artur Davis (11-1)
Does up-and-comer have statewide appeal? Definitely making noises.
(D) Ron Sparks (11-1)
Would he duck ‘08 primary with Figures for one with Folsom in 2010??
(R) Tony Petelos (12-1)
Demonstrating desire & energy. Looks strong in raising $. Good base.
(R) Bradley Byrne (13-1) NEW
Could be GOP frontrunner if he fixes 2 yr college mess. Lots of upside.
(D) Seth Hammett (14-1)
Will risk averse Speaker finally take his shot at gold ring?
(R) Troy King (14-1)
Word is that he is definitely running. Burned bridges with some GOP’ers.
(R) Luther Strange (14-1)
Apparently running for something. An open AG race might be best fit.
(R) Kay Ivey (15-1)
Questions about whether she can compete in $. Many think she’ll run.
(D) Mike Dow (16-1)
Could be a legit contender but needs to be active sooner rather than later.
(R) Beth Chapman (18-1)
Hearing doubts that she’ll run and doubts that she could win this time.
(R) Jack Hawkins (25-1) NEW
Troy Chancellor rumored to be considering a campaign.
(R) Rob Riley (70-1)
Ambitious family and persistent rumors of run. Still longshot.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Tim James (75-1)
Hard to rule him out as candidate until deadline has passed.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(L) Loretta Nall (>100-1)
Virtually impossible to win when you can’t get on the ballot.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
Related Articles:
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
[...] Alabama Line Updated » Doc’s Political Parlor Posted Alabama Politics on Monday, July 16th, 2007. [...]
An interesting look at Alabama Politics…
Doc’s has updated its Alabama Line, a betting man’s outlook on Alabama Politics. I am waiting on BoDog to pick up these odds and open the betting on the Governor’s race.
……
How can you possibly have Mike Hubbard as the favorite Republican?
How can you not? Who would you say is the GOP frontrunner, not that it matters. Not than anybody matters besides Folsom. Its a weak field in a weak year with one candidate with great name recognition.
“Roy Moore: Can’t rule him out until there’s a stake in him.”
That. Is. Priceless.
Who in the damn ol hell is Tony Petelos?
Heard something about Bronner as well.
While I have not spoken with him about his interest in higher office I can tell you anyone who rules Mike Hubbard out is crazy. A lot of folks on the blogs pound on Mike and I have never blogged on this issue but he does take a lot of unfair criticism. While he takes a lot of hits for his role as party chairman and minority leader he also stands his ground and a lot of Republicans respect him for that. I think Mike will be a strong candidate should he ever decide to take this route mainly because of his Republican credentials and his fundraising ability.
Here is how the GOP races will stack up in 2010
Governor – Kay Ivey – As Chair of Mitt Romney’s campaign, she’s raised a lot of money in Alabama.
Lt. Gov. – Mike Hubbard – While he doesn’t have high name Id yet, he will run a grass roots race for this office
Attorney General – Luther Strange will run and will only need a fraction of what he spent in 2006.
Treasruer – Harri Anne Smith – Her back ground in banking a political experience makes her a shoe in.
Kay Ivey for Governor? Doubt it. Mike Hubbard would be wise to stick with his current positions and play it safe. This is a bad time to run for Governor, they would have to find a dead hooker in Folsom’s bed in order for anyone else to have a chance. GOP will run a relative unknown (like Petelos) so that there is little damage done when the person loses. I have heard for a while that Kay will go for Lt. Gov. And then AG I completely agree. Treasurer will be someone with like Harri Anne Smith that very few people know of before she steps up her campaign. David what about Beth Chapman does she stick with SOS or does she jump up?
I had to look up Tony Petelos, he is currently the Mayor of Hoover, was the head of DHR and a State Representative.
I think the Dems will have a more interesting slate. I mean you have
Gov-Folsom-duh
Lt. Gov-Wide Open
AG-Somebody to get mowed down by Big Luther
SoS-Ron Sparks if he is smart. Make a name for himself with that office and make a jump to GOV after Folsom gets term limited setting up a Mike Hubbard Ron Sparks for gov in 2018
Treas-Wide Open (Let’s give it to Roger Bedford, he has to go for something bigger one day)
State Auditor-Wide Open (Let’s give this to Lowell Barron because he hwas burned too many bridges in the Senate and needs a change of scenery)
There is a lot of open space for people to fight for. All the spots are wide open except for Gov.
WWW–it IS a bad time to run for Governor in 2007, but the race is three years away and anything can happen. There is still a lot to play out with the 2 year college scandal. Frankly, I don’t think Dems are going to be very popular around the state in 2010!
I tend to agree that Kay Ivey will be the republican choice for Governor. She spoke to our meeting last week and she did a great job. She got a standing ovation and the talk is that she’ll be running for Governor.
I’m not sure Mike Hubbard will run, but I think Luther Strange will run again for Lt. Gov.. With all of the negative publicity for Troy King, I think he will stay for another term as AG. I hear John McMillian will run for Ag commissioner. That is a perfect position for John. My guess is that Chapman and Shaw stay put and run for re-election. But it is early in the process and lots can change. Kay Ivey is impressive and I don’t see anyone on in the republican who could beat her in a primary.
Tyson will make a spirited comeback to win AG walking away..setting up a Tyson v. Sparks and King v. Hubbard primary season in ‘18.
Mike Hubbard has no state name ID, no grassroots organization and will be crushed in a statewide primary for governor.
Kay, King, or Byrne would all kill him.
Anonymous-Such a creative name. To clarify for you 2010 will still be a bad time to run for Governor. The 2 year system will knock out Bradley Byrne but no one else. Folsom has bipartisan appeal, Republicans were big winners in 2006 but Folsom still won along with Ron Sparks (who cared) and Sue Bell Cobb (more likeable than Drayton) because of the bipartisan appeal. So like I said before they will have to find a dead hooker in Folsom’s bed before anyone else will have a chance and the hooker would have to be male for Folsom to lose. As for Kay Ivey the highest she will go is Lt. Gov. she is smart enough to know not to run against Folsom in 2010. It is like running against Jeff Session in 08, stupid idea. She will bide her time with that and then decide whether Gov. is what she wants or not and I think she will decide she is too old at that point and retire from politics.
You are insane if you think Tyson has a chance, Tyson lost to Troy King. He barely beat Darby in a primary. Tyson is done.
WWW, with all due respect, I believe you are placing far too high a premium on Folsom’s name recognition. We are talking about the same individual who, as a sitting Governor with 100% name ID, lost to Fob James, not exactly the greatest political mind of the era. Further, 2006 was hardly a “Republican year.” The truth of the matter is that Alabama Democrats put up one of the weakest slates in quite awhile, with Lucy Baxley and Nancy Worley typifying said weakness.
In all honesty, while an interesting exercise, all of these rankings are extremely fluid, as there is so much that could change between now and 2010, something with which I believe Danny would agree.
After all, in 2002, who was Luther Strange? True, he lost to Folsom, but he was able to defeat George Wallace, Jr. and ran a tight race with Folsom, having started with zero name ID the prior year.
Perhaps another interesting exercise would be to place odds on which person in the Alabama Line will have a major scandal break about him first. If we are willing to admit that much could change, why not ask who is most likely to have that “What was he thinking?” moment?
But with Folsom losing you ahve to remember, people had not elected him Governor. They had elected a Republican and it was during the 1994, the Republican Revolution that Folsom lost. So you have to look at the other factors. I am not banking solely on the name recognition for Folsom. Some people are still talking about the Folsom ad where he claims to have never played tennis at the mountain brook club. He has the George Bush “candidate I would most like to drink a beer with” appeal. Luther Strange also had the backing of Alabama, I don’t think backing is the best word, how about Alabama Power made him. Folsom stayed extremely quiet during the primary season while Strange’s name was EVERYWHERE. And looking at the Republican stable, what horse are you going to ride to victory, they have a lot of work to do before they are ready for a race.
2008 will be a terrible year for the democrats. No chance Hillary or Obama will do anything but move more people to the republicans. If the republicans play it right they can ride the wave into 2010. Rather than suggest who might win, I’d suggest the Leonard’s Losers approach. Here is who can’t win as Governor of the republicans: Troy King-his sky box scandal along with poor job performance will doom him. Hubbard isn’t know outside of his district. State Party chairman is not a way to build statewide recognition. People aren’t going to vote for Strange since he lost. Rob Riley’s run will be seen as dynasty building and the Riley’s aren’t the Wallace or Folsoms. So, the last man standing is actually a women: Kay Ivey.
Ignoring grammar and syntax, I would say in many ways you are proving my point. First, you are correct, Alabamians had elected a Republican, a Republican who had been thrown out of office. Thus, Folsom was able to allow a state Republican Party, whose first Governor since Reconstruction had been removed from office, defeat him with a weak candidate. Further, if what you say is true and the Gingrich revolution allowed Folsom to be defeated, the same could be said of the 2006 election, where Democrats swept into power in the same way, an election, by the way, Folsom barely won.
Second, your argument in regard to Folsom’s ad may indeed be true. Certainly the ad in question was the best of the cycle. That said, however, an ad in 2006 does not mean victory in 2010. I can recall Steve Windom’s 1998 “Bloopers Ad” being called the best in the cycle. He even reproduced it during his primary race with Bob Riley. I do not think I have to remind you how much that ad did for him in 2002.
Third, this argument I continue to hear about how Folsom had to overcome so much in 2006 is patently untrue. Strange started with zero name recognition before the primaries. Folsom began with 100%. In other words, the money Strange spent in the primaries allowed him to reach parity with Folsom in the general election. Strange then had to face a runoff election, whereas Folsom, as you say, just had to raise money. In other words, Strange had to run three races whereas Folsom merely had one. With all that, Folsom still barely won in a strong year for Democrats. Not exactly an impressive feat, with all due respect.
As for the Republican nominee, I think that question is still up in the air. I could see the race becoming between Hubbard and Strange, in all honesty. That’s not to say that others won’t run. With that said, though, Kay Ivey lacks the weight needed to win a competitive Governor’s race. She is a very nice lady, no doubt, but Lucy Baxley can attest to how much that means when one is sitting on the top of a party ticket. As for Troy King, the Republican Party loyalists do not like him one iota. Some of the Moore crowd may hold out hopes for him, but those who make donations to campaigns have all but turned their back on him, meaning a race for anything but Attorney General would be political suicide, and even running as AG again, King may face significant Republican opposition.
Having said all that, I believe Mr. Folsom should not overlook Artur Davis. If he runs, he will receive the vast majority of the African American vote which, in a Democratic Primary, makes all the difference. Further, placed on the same stage, Mr. Davis would run circles around Folsom, a man who, for all his positive attributes, can hardly be called an intellectual juggernaut.
My point is this: The race is fluid. To say, as you have, that nobody matters beside Folsom is completely insane. The “bipartisan support” you speak of was completely obliterated when he smashed, illegally in the eyes of Republicans, the Senate filibuster. If the race were held today, Folsom would probably win. In three years time, however, we may all be asking how anyone could have possibly thought Folsom had a prayer.
Folsom is lazy, and a retread. He is ripe for the pickins, as they say.
WWW, your political instincts seem to indicate you have very little experience.
As for the Tyson thing, don’t feel the need to rebut me, just sit back and watch. Alabama is FULL of candidates who lost once (and badly) who made a valiant comeback to higher office.
Sparks is an attractive candidate on paper, remains to be seen what happens to him in a real race…same can be said for all of the named candidates but Folsom.
And, as was said above, and as Rep. Ward said, don’t underestimate Mike Hubbard. He is a fierce partisan fighter who is well known for his work in the trenches for the party…that leads to money, which leads to name recognition.
Mike Hubbard is not a fierce partisan fighter…he is a puppet for Bob Riley. He can’t wipe his own behind without permission from the Governor.
Given the political leanings in this state theres no way the GOP is just going to roll over and play for Folsom in ‘10 like some on here are suggesting. Theyve already defeated him twice before. Also Ive noticed a lot of Greg Warren for Congress signs popping up already in the Cullman and Winston County areas. So he should be given credit for at least trying.
The case is not that Tyson lost. It is that Darby gave him a run for his money and we all know what Darby stood for. Then he couldn’t beat Troy King. Everytime I see something about Troy King I hear ESPN’s Chris Berman in my head talkin about “Stumblin n Bumblin”. Tyson should have easily handled Darby and should have beat Troy King.
And for Gov. GOP won’t just roll over, but the smart candidates will stay away. I see a candidate that nobody knows who they are stepping up to room. I mean the one negative so far that people have on Folsom is when he broke the deadlock in the Senate. Only hardcore Republicans that wouldn’t vote for Folsom will hold it against him, the others will see it as he made the Senate start working the only way he could so that bills would be passed.
What indicates little experience?
2010 will be an interesting year, but so was 2006, and 1994 before that. I do wonder, however, how much some of the earlier commenters remember about them. In 1994, every Democratic Governor across the South except Zell Miller lost (and Miller barely won). Folsom lost by a few thousand votes, after a brutal primary against Paul Hubbert, a vicious campaign from the Republicans, the “Contract for America” landslide for Republicans that led to the complete turnover of Congress and statehouses around the country, and huge COMPLAINTS about his recruitment of Mercedes. Now, I don’t think anyone would complain about Mercedes, which a study last week showed contributes $6 billion each year to our state’s economy. Can anyone else figure out why Bob Riley has had such successful budgets – could it be the automotive economy that Folsom’s recruitment of Mercedes started? So Republicans should not take solace in the fact Folsom lost in 1994. One thing 2006 should have showed you is that he is now older and wiser.
In 2006, from watching all the races, he ran the best. He kept his powder dry and let Luther use up all his money, while saving his until he could put together the best TV ads of the entire race (with all due respect to “This Little Light of Mine”.) And he still got outspent from start to finish by 2 or 3 to 1. Now he is complimented by members of the Senate on both sides of the division for his work trying to bring people together. And if he decides to run in 2010, he will probably decide earlier and be able to raise more money. And the best thing he did this past election was work behind the scenes to keep a clear primary. If that happens, watch out!
One can credit the people surrounding Folsom for being “wiser,” but anyone who tries to even insinuate that Mr. Folsom is somehow a master strategist has never met Jim Folsom, Jr.
Once again, the argument that Folsom somehow had to overcome something to win in 2006 is just ridiculous. He entered the race with 100% name ID and no party primary. Remember, he filed the last possible day. Some would say this was because he kept the field clear. It is more likely that he saw the opportunity to be his party’s nominee without having to face a primary, an odious task to be certain. Further, to imply that his saving money was somehow shrewd mischaracterizes the entire race. Of course Folsom did not spend any money until the general election. He did not have to spend a dime on a party primary. Even then, he did not have to establish name recognition in the same way as Strange did. He started with 100% name ID, as has been said previously.
I reiterate what I have already said: Folsom, by winning in 2006, became the frontrunner for Governor in 2010. With that said, do not think he will be able to replicate 2006 in 2010. He will certainly face opposition within the primary. He will not enjoy the Democratic monsoon 2006 represented. Republican voters who may be willing to crossover in a Lieutenant Governor’s race, a position largely seen as irrelevant, are far less likely to do so in the race for Governor. While Folsom’s 2006 victory was largely predicated on mindless populism, a victory in 2010 will have to be garnered through a battle of philosophies and issues, not Folsom’s strong points.
The 2010 Gubernatorial Race as I see it.
DEMS:
1. Jim Folsom. Little Jim will do as Lucy Baxley, Steve Windom, Don Siegelman, etc. did before him and run for the highest office. He is probably currently seen as the Democratic candidate that can best attract votes from fence-straddlers, that huge population in Alabama that loves to split their tickets.
2. Seth Hammett. I haven’t heard much about him but look for him to make a surprise challenge to Folsom. Some will argue he has too low of name ID, but he is influential in Montgomery circles and would begin with very low negatives.
3. Artur Davis. This man has wanted to move up for a while now, and after deciding to pass on the Senate in ‘08 he may decide that the Gubernatorial race is his chance.
4. Ron Sparks. Even though he was the center of much hype for a while, I think that Sparks will forgo a Governor run in 2010 in what could be a contentious primary and probably pursue an open Lieutenant Governor’s office. He has high ambitions though, so keep an eye on Sparks.
5. Mike Dow. This Mobilian seems to be an upwardly mobile politician, but a 2010 Gubernatorial bid, against the likes of Democratic colleagues such as Folsom, Davis, and Sparks seems unlikely at this point. Still, 3 years is a long time and anything can happen.
GOP
1. Kay Ivey. In contrast to what a previous poster said, the Treasurer carries enough weight to be more than a “nice lady”. She would be a formidable opponent if she decided to run and would probably have wide bipartisan appeal. She is also flexing her political muscle by coordinating Romney’s Alabama campaign.
2. Bradley Byrne. This man has had quite a bit of press lately and will be held to high expectations in his new post. If he does not fumble the new job, Byrne might decide to jump into the highest office race. And if he does, look for a large amount of former Riley supporters to open their wallets.
3. Mike Hubbard. While he is cleaqrly grooming himself for higher office, Hubbard would have a harder path to the Governor’s office than some might suspect. His appeal to Democrats would be minimal. But don’t underestimate this adept multi-tasker, he has an avid group of followers in Montgomery that would be more than willing to propel him to victory.
4. Troy King. While AG King has encountered some major obstacles in the last couple of years, he is still an up-and-coming Republican politician in this state. A former Riley staffer, look for him to follow the ‘02 and ‘06 models closely. He would meet fierce opposition from the media for his candidacy, but he did so against Tyson and won.
5. Beth Chapman. The new Secretary of State is certainly getting a better rap in the media than did her predecessor. However, there are still questions as to whether Chapman has the desire to make a run for the state’s top office next cycle. She would face an uphill battle, but could conceivably win. However, definitely look for a run for re-election as SOS or possible Lieutenant Governor.
6. Luther Strange. Ole Big Luther seems poised to make another statewide run in 2010. But after losing the state’s #2 race, what would qualify him in the eyes of the voters to make a bid for the Governor’s office. Still, Strange showed he is a savvy campaigner and would still be a force to reckon with should he enter the race.
7. Jack Hawkins. Not active in politics on a statewide level, maybe a legislative run would be fmore fitting.
8. Tony Petelos. Tony who?
In conclusion, every person on this list has given more than a fleeting thought to running for governor. With Governor Riley exiting after eight years, every political group and associaton willl be searching for their next heir. As for now, we can only speculate as to whether he will end up running or if she has the itch. But that’s what makes Alabama politics so exciting!
good assessment John
Will-
How was 2006 a “Democratic monsoon”? Seems to me that more R’s than D’s won last year. On the Democratic side, the ones that won were Folsom, Sparks, Cobb, Susan Parker and Jan Cook. According to your logic, Folsom ran against a guy with zero name ID, blundered into an unopposed primary, was outspent badly, and still won by only 20,000 votes. Sparks ran as an incumbent in a race few people care about, with the backing of ALFA (the only people that really care about it) against Albert Lipscomb (who admitted on the campaign trail that Sparks had been a good Ag Commissioner). And Cobb ran against what may be the worst candidate in the history of Alabama. Parker beat a guy who had lost in his own party’s legislative primary a couple of years earlier. And Jan Cook is the unexplained miracle of Alabama politics. This was the “Democratic monsoon”? When Democrats who were better qualified than their Republican opponents lost – people like Judge Deborah Bell Paseur, who actually was the only Democratic judicial candidate to get the Business Council endorsement and yet she still lost. Some “Monsoon.” Nothing like the 1994 debacle.
Pardon me Payne, but who controls the US House of Representatives now? Who controls the US Senate now? At last check, the Democrats do, and all based upon the 2006 races. You are trying to look at Alabama in a vacuum. Republicans had a bad year nationally, a fact not lost on Alabama.
As for Folsom, I reiterate that the fact that he had 100% name ID and no party opposition is worth far more than you are giving credit. Do you honestly believe that if Strange had won his primary without a runoff or if George Wallace, Jr. had conceded before the runoff that the general election would have gone the same way?
Folsom is the strongest candidate right now, no doubt. The fact remains, however, that he had quite a bit going his way in 2006 that may not replicate itself in 2010.
WWW – The Darby thing was an anomoly — so much so that Tyson didn’t even camapaign, because he didn’t need to. Had his advisors put a response up to that Murphy girl immediately, he would have won (not by much, but much don’t count.)
Mike Hubbard has no state name ID, no grassroots organization and will be crushed in a statewide primary for governor.
Kay, King, or Byrne would all kill him.
Comment by Anonymous — July 16, 2007
Uh, isn’t that exactly what they said about a little known congressman named Bob Riley back in 2001 and early 2002 – no name ID and no statewide grassroots orgainzation.
And Mike does have a statewide grassroots organization – it’s called the Alabama Republican Party and he is chairman of it.
Think before you type something stupid.
[...] Keeping in the spirit of the Alabama Line update yesterday, I’ll mention a conversation I had recently with a small group of folks whose Democratic Party leanings provided them employment at one time or another. [...]
[...] I was talking to a friend and regular reader here who had not realized that the Political Parlor and particularly the Alabama Line (found in the right sidebar) had recently been the subject of a nice write-up by Dana Beyerle of the New York Times Regional Media Group. It was mentioned here in the Daily News Digest, but if you missed the article and are interested you can check it out here in the Tuscaloosa News. [...]
Interesting Read.:)