Battle Royale On to Replace Byrne in Baldwin

Though the legislative session is now over and we’re well over a year until the next cycle of state elections, there is a race that could be compelling in these dog days of summer into the fall.

The race to fill ex Senator and now Chancellor Bradley Byrne’s Senate seat was on the minute his appointment to the high profile post became a fait accompli. Governor Riley recently set the schedule to fill the vacancy with the filing ending in late July and the primary on August 7. As the Baldwin County Senate Seat is arguably the most Republican district in the state, there is no reason to spend any time pondering Democratic chances at a takeover.

This seat will stay Republican, but exactly which Republican will take Byrne’s place is still very much up in the air. In fact there could be half a dozen or more candidates with a legitimate chance to take the prize.

• While he is not without detractors, former State Senator Albert Lipscomb has to be taken seriously in this race. For one thing Lipscomb represented this district for 12 years before leaving the State Senate to take a shot at the US House seat ultimately won by Jo Bonner. Since then Lipscomb has been appointed to the Baldwin County Commission and took one for the GOP team by serving as the piñata for Ron Sparks re-election bid. Lipscomb was as conservative as any member during his previous Senate tenure, but there are those who doubt his effectiveness and acumen. Lipscomb starts with near universal name ID and a long record of service in Baldwin county politics, has his time passed and how will voters react to his wanting to serve in his fifth different office in as many years?
• The most established and aggressive candidate to this point has been Randy McKinney. McKinney ran against Byrne for the open seat in 2002, losing a closely contested runoff. Since then McKinney took a Riley appointment Byrne’s seat on the State School Board and won election in his own right in 2004. McKinney has styled himself as a fierce critic of the AEA and states’ educational establishment. McKinney’s outspokenness against all things AEA has endeared him to many Republicans in Montgomery and he’s likely to have their support in this race. But whether or not his appeal is as potent to local Republicans as it is to their Montgomery counterparts will determine if the second time is the charm and McKinney can again follow in Byrne’s footsteps.
• David Ed Bishop has served on the Baldwin County Commission since 2002 and is now ready to take the leap to the State Senate. As commissioners in Baldwin County are elected countywide, every voter in the district has seen Bishop on their ballot three times. Bishop is generally regarded as having made very few enemies during his service and with a field that is likely to be split several ways, perhaps being everybody’s second choice might be a good place to start.
• Baldwin County GOP Chair Don McGriff has also been aggressive in his nascent campaign. Though McGriff has served on the Baldwin County Board of Education, he has also come up short in two stabs at higher office. He was the Republican nominee for Lt Gov in 1986, losing to Jim Folsom Jr. and he dropped a State House race four years later. If McGriff was able generate goodwill though party service and can now cash in his favors, then he could be a factor before all is said and done.
• Also making aggressive moves to run is political newcomer Trip Pittman. Pittman is a successful businessman with an extensive record of military and civic service. Though he won’t start as the frontrunner, Pittman has an appealing resume and could be able to match the contributions (special interest and otherwise) of his more experienced opponents out of his own pocket. If the voters are in the mood for a fresh face and Pittman’s message resonates he could very well become a player in the race to replace Byrne.

Other potentially strong candidates like ex Baldwin DA David Whetstone, ex Foley Mayor Tim Russell, experienced powerbroker Sandra Sims-DeGraffenried, and maybe even State Rep Randy Davis have at various times shown an interest in the seat and had they taken as aggressive a posture as the above candidates they’d certainly be included above. Indeed, all but Sims-DeGraffenried have a track record of electoral success in the district and could certainly be viable candidates.

Since a runoff is assumed given the strength and depth of the forming field, a candidate could conceivably advance to the runoff with a showing in the low 20s or even lower. Such a scenario seems to have every able-bodied Baldwin Republican taking a long hard look at the race.

Like it or not, whose side the Montgomery interests come down on will certainly impact the outcome. There are those who think the BCA and their allies are likely to come to play with McKinney, but where a heavyweight like ALFA lands is less clear. Also don’t expect usually Democratic leaning groups like AEA and ATLA to resist taking a shot at finding a sympathetic ear and open door in the State Senate just because he’d sit on the other side of the aisle.

Rumors of an early poll that show Lipscomb and Whetstone well ahead and all other candidates in single digits aren’t especially significant even if it is presently accurate. A poll at this point reflects only name ID and not much else. With such a divided field in a low turnout special election, candidates, campaigns, and messaging will make the difference as to which Republicans advance to the runoff and ultimately represent the 32 District in the State Senate.

Chip Drago at the Mobile Bay Times is keeping an eye on the developments and will be the local go to guy as the race progresses.