Riley for VP… in 2007?

There has been no shortage of speculation that Bob Riley could wind up on a long or short list for a place on the Republican presidential ticket. Most of that speculation has centered around his seemingly close relationship with sometimes frontrunner John McCain. And one could make a plausible case that Riley could balance a ticket with the other serious GOP contenders (Giuliani, Romney). But there seems to be a confluence of events in Washington that could give rise to a seismic shift in the Alabama political universe.

Even die-hard Republicans have to admit the Bush administration is in disarray. The chaos in Iraq led to a Democratic Congress, which has led to unprecedented levels of discord and acrimony in the West Wing. More than a few pundits have floated the idea of the Bush administration getting a “fresh start” of sorts by making a major policy or personnel move. The President is obviously, for better or worse, not going to deviate from the game plan in Iraq, which leaves only one other card on the table that could potentially transform the political environment to the extent necessary to get a new lease on his political life. Can Dick Cheney.

Cheney is widely seen as the real architect of the Iraq War and has taken a major PR hit with the convictions of Cheney consigliere Scooter Libby. Even more than that Cheney personifies the type of grim, opaque conservatism than Bush critics (and now independents) so revile.

Time magazine notes this morning that “Libby’s conviction comes at the end of a dreadful year for Cheney” and reminds us that vice-presidents don’t always serve two complete terms with the chief:

[T]here is the argument that Bush should boot his Vice President before he strikes again. It’s an often forgotten fact that three of the past six Presidents either dumped or tried to dump their Vice Presidents: Richard Nixon tossed Spiro Agnew for Gerald Ford in 1973, Ford tossed Nelson Rockefeller and tapped Bob Dole as a running mate in the 1976 campaign, and Bush’s father George Herbert Walker Bush let his top aides try to give the heave-ho to Vice President Dan Quayle when he was dragging down the G.O.P. ticket by three or four points in 1992.

So pushing Cheney out the door might provide Bush an opportunity to resurrect his presidency for it’s final 22 months. And who would fill Cheney’s shoes?

Well it can’t be anyone who is running for president for obvious reasons, so that takes out the most ambitious GOP pols.

And voters made their feelings known about Washington Republicans in November.

So it has to be someone from outside the beltway but with enough of a resume’ to conceivably take over should that be necessary.

Given such a situation, Bob Riley’s name might be on that enters the mix.

And don’t be too quick to dismiss such a scenario. Remember that only last week Bob Riley was in D.C. at the National Governor’s meetings. And the gratuitous jawboning about leading the charge against “cutting off funds for the troops” seemed a little out of place in a normal State of the State. But perhaps Bob Riley was addressing a larger audience than just those who watched it on APT last night.

Of course those who would be most opposed to such a move would be Riley’s own allies in the Alabama Republican Party. LG Jim Folsom Jr would of course again ascend to the big chair should Riley vacate his office. This would give Democrats a virtual stranglehold on state politics and roll back (temporarily at least) many of the gains Republicans have made over the past several cycles.

Is this likely to happen? Of course not. But upon closer inspection such a scenario might not be as far-fetched as it would seem at first glance.

Related Articles:

• 4 Reasons Why Bob Riley Won’t Be on the Republican Ticket in 2008