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Political Parlor’s Alabama Line was created by insiders across the political spectrum who gave their takes on the 2008 U.S. Senate and U.S. House races, and the 2010 Governor’s race.
Considerable care went into thinking this through. Of course, your mileage may vary.
The plan is to update the Alabama Line when information becomes available that would change what is presented here.
So without further ado… here is the Alabama Line complete with odds of candidates winning these various races… (remarks on candidates are kept quite short so that the Alabama Line may also fit into the sidebar)…
Alabama Line
Senate Line
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-7)
Would take George Allen type meltdown to lose.
(D) Ron Sparks (19-1)
Potentially strong if $ is there. Likely waits for another race in 2010.
(D) Vivian Figures (22-1)
Minuses: Shares Sessions’ geographic base, not well-known and doubts on $.
(D) Jim Folsom (29-1)
Would improve odds in unlikely event he announced candidacy.
(D) Pete Johnson (35-1)
Retired Jeffco Judge. Who?
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out.
AL-2 Line
(R) Terry Everett (1-2)
Rumors that he may retire.
AL-3 Line
(R) Mike Rogers (1-6)
Will he be targeted in an early re-districting effort?
AL-1, -4, -5, -6, -7 Line
Incumbent (1-8)
Any challenger to one of our House incumbents has uphill climb.
Governor Line (2010)
(D) Jim Folsom (7-1)
Presumptive Dem nominee? Slew GOP heir apparent in 06.
(R) Kay Ivey (9-1)
Won impressively statewide twice and was 06’s leading votegetter.
(R) Mike Hubbard (9-1)
Looks like the Riley crowd’s choice. Can raise profile now as GOP chair.
(D) Ron Sparks (11-1)
Term limited out of Ag office after two smooth terms, wants to be gov.
(D) Seth Hammett (14-1)
Most influential elected Dem and can raise $, but hard to go statewide.
(R) Troy King (14-1)
Blunders cost him frontrunner status. Must improve or may lose AG.
(R) Luther Strange (14-1)
GOP heir apparent before 06 loss. Will $ backers come to play again?
(D) Artur Davis (14-1)
Dem heavyweight has DC focus. Skeptics doubt statewide appeal.
(R) Beth Chapman (15-1)
Ambitious, but more likely for Lt. Governor’s race in 2010.
(R) Tony Petelos (16-1)
Suburban Jeffco base is good in GOP primary. Expect a run.
(D) Mike Dow (16-1)
4 term Mobile Mayor wants to run badly, has a base and can raise $.
(D) Susan Parker (16-1)
Won statewide twice, but not 02 Senate run. Does she have the itch?
(R) Richard Shelby (19-1)
Rumors have floated. He would be hard to beat if he wanted it.
(R) Roy Moore (33-1)
Do open seat & divided field mean comeback. Is he even still in GOP?
(R) Tim James (67-1)
Didn’t make it to double digits in 2002. Why would 2010 be different?
(R) Charles Bishop (67-1)
Run twice before. Does he have something to show pinheads?
(R) Jimmy Rane (95-1)
Rumor says that Mr. YellaWood might lumber into the race on GOP side.
(R) Rob Riley (99-1)
Rumors persist, but hard to imagine he runs. Harder to imagine he wins.
(L) Loretta Nall (>100-1)
Virtually impossible to win when you can’t get on the ballot.
Thanks to ColoradoPols for helping us realize how useful and fun something like this could be.
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
Wow very cool, thanks for you work putting this together.
Bud Cramer (D-5th) may be more vulnerable than he seems. His vote to oppose the Iraq surge was a shock to the military community in Huntsville. If he continues down Copperhead Road and if the GOP fields a credible candidate, Bud could be in for an upset.
FYI, Sunday’s Huntsville Times ran an editorial cartoon which called him “Dud” Cramer and “not so tough on terror”.
I would put both Troy King and Beth Chapman higher than Luther Strange. I doubt there would be the same level of interest for him to run statewide as Governor seeings as he spent more than any LG Candidate in Alabama history and lost.
Gary Palmer for Governor!
Reactionary, good thoughts. If Cramer had an opponent that announces and starts to get some traction, that would certainly change the equation.
Commenter GOP, Chapman and Strange have those around them believing they may be preparing to run for office, but at this moment it’s a reasonable bet that it won’t be for the governor’s seat in 2010. Troy King could easily move up the list. Of course, given the trajectory of his news so far this year, he could easily move down the list too.
Joe, he’d be a longshot!
A lot can happen between now and then.
Anonymous, you are welcome!
I’d very much suggest you adding Palmer to the Governor’s line. He already has a grassroots organization, a donor base and the ability to talk about issues that matter to the state. I would not throw his name out at this point. He has as much of a chance as anyone though I’d rather see him run for the U.S. Senate instead of Governor one day.
Thanks, Thomas, for the feedback. We haven’t figured yet if updates should be ongoing and constant, or done more at regular intervals… but there will definitely be names to add, remove, and move up or down as information comes in. This is helpful.
And I’m sorry that your comment got caught up in the spam filter where I had to fish it out. Not sure what makes that happen occasionally.
Joe and Thomas, I had a very nice email exchange with Gary Palmer who told me that he did not think he belonged on such a list as this. Nice fellow…
I think Kay Ivey benefits from having had no serious oppposition (Segrest) in the last election. She is not a very attactive candidate though. Has anyone made the jump from Treasurer to Gov. before? That seems a long way to jump up the ballot.
Hubbard doesn’t have much name ID outside the party. I presume he would have plenty of money. He kind of reminds me of Luther, prior to 06.
I think Beth Shepherd is an attractive candidate who is well spoken and knows how to push all the right buttons. She would have a long way to jump up the ballot, also.
King is a smart politician who is recovering fast from stumbles early in his first full term. He young enough that, in my opinion, he will most likely want to run for another full term as Attorney General.
All in all, I would give Beth the slight edge, imho.
[...] Back in February, we identified Ron Sparks as the Democrat most likely to take the seat (though he was then and now a longshot). Since then, he has received internet encouragement to run from sites like Swing State Project and DailyKos. [...]
[...] as well as the 2010 gubernatorial election. Filed under Elections, The Feds email author :: no comments(1752) These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new webpages. [...]
Add Sue Bell Cobb to the Governor’s race list. Rumor has it that she would consider a run.
[...] I heard some more election chatter… more on that later as we are preparing to update the Alabama Line. [...]
[...] You can see previous comments here. [...]
[...] It’s a tall order. Regular readers of the blog knew some time ago (from our Alabama Line) that at this distant date, Ron Sparks was believed to have better odds than any other Democrat to claim the seat – though still long odds. [...]