Top Ten Who Lost: #9
Update (12/7/06): Formatting errors that caused some text to be omitted have been fixed.
Looking at this year’s state elections… Who were the notable losers? Next on the list of the Top Ten Who Lost:
#9. Negative Campaigning
Perhaps this is wishful thinking on my part, but I would like to think that negative campaigning took a hit this election season. (By “negative campaigning,” we mean campaign material that tells how bad your opponent is rather than how good a candidate you are.)
Consider…
In Senate District 30, Republican Joan Reynolds spent over $850,000 (including over $600,000 of her own money she loaned her campaign) in a vicious campaign against incumbent Democrat “Walking” Wendell Mitchell that had people talking - especially about a TV commercial that implied Mitchell did not support our troops. In it a man who said he was Marine claimed Mitchell “would not thank an Alabama Guard unit in Iraq” - all because he missed a vote on a resolution supporting the Alabama National Guard. After “25 mail pieces and seven negative television ads” against Mitchell, and despite that some thought he was vulnerable, Mitchell still won 62% to 38%.- Democrat Bobby Day hit hard against Republican Arthur Orr with some harsh accusations including that Orr was part-owner of a gas station that caused cancer in a young girl. In an important race for an open seat in Senate District 3, Orr won handily, 62%-38%.
- Republican incumbent Betty Peters in the race for District 2 of the State Board of Education took some hard hits from Charlotte Kirkland Williams and emerged victorious, 53% - 47%.
- In the Jefferson County Probate Judge Place 1 race, Democrat Alan King defeated incumbent Mark Gaines by 6 percentage points after people reacted strongly to Gaines’ negative campaign that was widely believed to be unfair to King. (Even The Birmingham News who endorsed Gaines said he “deserved to lose.”)
- Statewide, Lucy Baxley’s campaign against Republican Gov. Bob Riley never caught a wind as she (or the Democratic Party) tried to hammer Riley with ads on his connections to gambling money and especially the “backdoor tax increase,” i.e. the annual property tax re-appraisals. To be fair, the Riley juggernaut looked unstoppable and probably could not have been stopped with even a perfect campaign from Baxley. He really only took criticism when he ran his own negative commercial that mostly consisted of the word “liberal” and was otherwise not-so substantial. His best ads showed him to be a capable and experienced leader. Riley won 58% to 42%.
- Republican Luther Strange’s negative ads (can’t find them still online) against Democrat Jim Folsom, Jr. in the Lt. Governor’s race never seemed to connect with voters. This may be in part because Folsom’s own positive and folksy ads were out first and were even good enough to be called “probably the best of the year.” Folks I know connected with Folsom’s gentle jab (”never played tennis at the Mountain Brook Club”) more than the less-so (”Strange is a lobbyist”), and Folsom squeaked by 51%-49%.
- Sue Bell Cobb and incumbent Drayton Nabers both had some negative ads in the race for Chief Justice, but the Democrat Cobb is remembered for the positive “This Little Light of Mine” ad. As in Folsom’s race, the positive ads are credited as being major contributors to victory, as she surprised many with her 52% - 48% win.
No doubt there were some successful negative commercials. The commercial where a murder victim’s daughter accuses Democratic AG-candidate John Tyson, Jr. of being slow to prosecute the killer comes to mind; incumbent Troy King won by 6 percentage points in what was expected to be a closer race. Republican Beth Chapman ran some negative ads against incumbent Democrat Nancy Worley and won the race for Secretary of State (58% - 42%), but it is hard to imagine what would have had to happen to make that race close.
By and large, voters appeared to respond less well to negative campaigning. The maxim is that “no one likes negative commercials but they work;” I suggest that in this election cycle in Alabama they worked less well.
I would be interested in hearing from others, especially regarding local races, to know if this is the perception or experience of others.
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