Top 10 Most Interesting Questions: #1

There was no argument among the political insiders, campaign veterans and lobbyists who were helping me with the Top 10 Most Interesting Questions to Be Answered by the Primary Elections about what would be number one.

#1.	Who will control the Senate?

About three weeks ago, one of my best sources told me:

Eighty percent of the people who work in politics believe that Riley is re-elected. Everybody is pre-occupied with the race between Barron and Preuitt.

Of course, they are not running head to head, but Senate President Pro Tem Sen. Lowell Barron (D – District 8 – DeKalb, Jackson, Madison counties) and Rules Chair Sen. Jim Preuitt (D – District 11 – Calhoun, Coosa, Elmore, Talladega counties) have clashed over leadership for the Democratic-controlled Senate. Preuitt led a coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans in an attempt to unseat Barron from his second term as President Pro Tem. Preuitt’s coalition needed 21 votes to oust Barron as President Pro Tem, and they could not quite swing it. However, I hear that Preuitt from his seat as Rules Chair was pretty much running the show by the end of the session.

At the beginning of the next session, only 18 votes will be needed to choose the President Pro Tem for the next quadrennium. Governor Riley and plenty of his allies would love to see a Republican President Pro Tem in the Senate. That is not going to happen, and conservative Democrat Jim Preuitt would be the next best thing.

Barron is hitting back hard, not only out of desire to keep his position, but also out of frustration after putting his presumed ally Preuitt in the powerful position of Rules Chair. Preuitt used the position as a springboard to challenge Barron’s position.

For months now, folks have anticipated the primary election to see how this would play out for the next legislative session.

Says one source:

If Preuitt wins, Riley will have a lot more influence in the legislature [than if Barron wins]. Not as much as a Democratic governor would, but a lot more than Riley would have with Barron. With Preuitt in there, the conservative lobbyists will have a lot more influence. Preuitt and Dial are the most conservative Democrats. They are more conservative than some Republicans.

Can you imagine? If Preuitt wins, then [Speaker of the House] Seth Hammett who is owned by the Business Council would be the liberal Democrat.

All indications are that Barron is raising tremendous money to support Democratic challengers for three rebellious Democratic Senators who would normally be expected to have safe seats: Preuitt, Gerald Dial, and Jimmy Holley.

One source tells me that the Matrix Group – who has been underwritten by Alabama Power for so long – is on retainer to help Preuitt oust Barron. Any senatorial candidate who pledges allegiance to Preuitt has free access to all the resources of Matrix: push polls, media buys, polling.

Does Alabama Power want Barron out, I ask?

BCA, ALFA, the utilities, the road builders, pharmaceuticals, they would all line up behind Preuitt. Alabama Power doesn’t put all its eggs in one basket. They figure as long as they stay close to [Speaker of the House Seth] Hammett, they will be okay.

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There are four key Democratic primary races to watch.

District 11 (Calhoun, Coosa, Elmore, Talladega Counties):
Jim Preuitt’s race against barber and ex-Talladega Mayor Larry Barton was expected to be perfunctory. Barton served three year in prison after he was convicted for 26 counts of money laundering and one count of fraud. Barton was not believed to be a strong challenger to the powerful Chair of the Senate Rules Committee. Barton has campaigned hard with a lot of money, running negative ads about Preuitt’s car dealership selling used cars as new with a picture of Preuitt’s manson in the background. An insider tells me that Preuitt could lose his once-safe seat.

District 13 (Chambers, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Lee, Randolph):
Sen. Gerald Dial’s race for his ninth term in the legislature was supposed to be an easy win for the incumbent. But, Randolph Circuit Clerk Kim Benefield’s full coffers have allowed her to buy a lot of expensive Birmingham TV time to show her ads in Lineville. Former state Democratic Party Chair Phillip Kinney now does opposition research for Matrix. Kinney told one of the senators in the Preuitt group that they could not find anything negative on Benefield and that they were going to have to make something up. That is why you get the ad that tries to connect Benefield with Barron who “used $5,000 of your money to pay a shoeshine man to shine shoes for senators.” I must admit that if that is the worst thing you can say about Benefield, you are really stretching. Especially since news reports said that it was Sen. Bobby Denton (D – Muscle Shoals) who paid $5,000 to the shoeshine man (though Barron approved the payment from money allotted to Denton).

The polling has had Benefield a few points ahead most of the race, and the power of incumbency was expected to help Dial make that up, but the last I heard that has still not happened. It’s a long district with Dial’s hometown Lineville in the middle. One source told me that the farther you get from Lineville, the better Dial polls. The closer you get to Lineville, the worse he polls. His point, I believe, was that the less well-known he was, the better he polled because of his incumbency. The more well-known he was, the better Benefield polled.

Dial was originally expected to win in a walk, but now he’s running hard. He may well lose this one.

District 31 (Coffee, Covington, Dale, Houston):
One source told me that Sen. Jimmy Holley wanted to be President Pro Tem, though my other sources all believed that Holley was firmly behind Preuitt. Attorney and challenger Joe Sawyer was not expected to give Holley much opposition as Holley sought his eighth term in the state legislature. Again, unexpectedly large amounts of money, presumably from Barron, have made that race very competitive for Sawyer who may pull off the upset. One reportedly very effective ad for Sawyer that Holley has not rebutted or blunted points out that Holley supported “loan shark” legislation favorable to payday loan lenders.

District 7 (Madison):
Financial advisor Phil Dotts is running against retired doctor and Huntsville mayoral candidate Parker Griffith for the seat Sen. Jeff Enfinger is vacating. One insider told me that this race may be one of two keys, or maybe THE key, to the Barron-Preuitt power struggle. (Dial/Benefield would be the other one. However if Holley or Preuitt lose, this one would become less crucial to Barron.)

Retiring Sen. Enfinger reportedly hates Barron after Barron stripped Enfinger of his role of the Senate’s #2 post, Democratic floor leader, after criticizing Sen. Roger Bedford (D – Russellville) for pork barrel projects in Bedford’s district. Enfinger’s money has been going to PACs that support Dotts and that support senators who oppose Barron. Dotts is reportedly the more conservative candidate of the two (some tell me that Dotts is basically a Republican) though state constitution reform is a major issue of his campaign. He would be expected to support Preuitt. Griffith is the more liberal of the two (universal health care is a major issue for him) and would presumably support Barron.

I keep hearing that Griffith has the broader support and greater name recognition because of his strong showing in the Huntsville mayoral race. While I defer to minds smarter than mine on the issue, I do wonder why Dotts reported about five times as many individual donors as Griffith in the 45-day financial disclosure reports if Griffith is the one with broader support. I also wonder why Griffith has loaned his own campaign over $350,000 if he is supposed to be the one with broad support.

FWIW, one political veteran pointed out to me that a loan like that to your own campaign can mean that someone has already arranged to donate money to the campaign but that the money source does not want to be identified with the money or the campaign before the election.

Extraordinary amounts of money are being spent on the race – almost $600,000 between the two. For a primary race. Griffith’s campaign reports $180,000 on hand, presumably for a general election.

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If Preuitt and Holley win their elections (which looked more certain just a few days ago) then if either side can win both of the Dial-Benefield and Dotts-Griffith races, they will have a big advantage in choosing the Senate leadership.

One veteran insider told me that you can figure all you want on which has which votes lined up, but that you never know what deal will be made in the backroom to swing a deal.

For example, my sources all agree that Charles Bishop, Republican candidate for Senate District 5, would caucus with the Barron Democrats in a heartbeat if Bishop won his race and Barron made him, say, chair of Rules Committee. “Bishop would probably pay Barron’s bills” left from the campaigns if Barron would make him Rules chair, said one source. He might not just switch caucuses, but

Bishop might change parties for Rules. He would get to strut to the mike. He wouldn’t have to keep up with the minutiae of health care or something like that.

Preuitt has had a lot of money in his warchest. If it looked like Barron was lining up the Democratic votes he needed, would Democrat Preuitt go so far as to help a Republican beat a Barron Democrat in the fall to help Preuitt become President Pro Tem? I asked one Democrat.

I sure hope that Preuitt wouldn’t help Republicans in the fall and I don’t think he would. But it is certainly not beyond possibility and that is definitely a wait and see. Another issue is to see what a Dial or Holley would do if they’re defeated in the primary. Would they endorse the GOP candidate? Run as a write-in?

Another factor is that you have Democratic Senators “like Ted Little, Larry Means, Wendell Mitchell and others who bounce back and forth between the dissident Democrats and the Barron Democrats.”

The problem is, another insider tells me, is that you need 18 votes to set the rules and choose President Pro Tem, and everybody wants a chairmanship.

Let’s wrap this up.

One great source who early on believed that Preuitt would be President Pro Tem takes the time to tally the votes this way.

I feel this pretty well reflects the leadership struggle. I’ve indicated who I feel could flip under the right circumstances…

In my mind these numbers highlight the urgency of the primary races for both sides, especially Barron.

Just thought I’d pass it along.

Definite Barron (14 votes)
Barron
Bedford
Mitchem
Mitchell
Escott
Smitherman
McClain
Denton
Zeb Little
Poole
Penn
Ross
Sanders
Figures

Definite Preuitt (14 votes)
10 currently GOP seats (assumes GOP holds SD 5 and Bishop Caucuses with GOP/Preuitt)
Butler
Means (could flip under right circumstances)
Ted Little (could flip)
Preuitt

To be Determined (Barron/Preuitt)
Griffith/Dotts
Day/Orr
Lindsay/McMillan
Tanner/GOP Nominee
Benefield/Dial
Sawyer/Holley
Singleton

One last comment… if Barron survives this challenge to his leadership and knocks a dissident Democrat or two out of office, several sources agree that Barron’s hold on leadership, at least in the short term, will be stronger than ever.

Related posts:
Intro to Top 10 Most Interesting Questions
#10. Who is “one and done?”
 #9. Will the Democratic nominee for governor win the primary without a runoff?
 #8. Who will be the most noteworthy newcomer among primary winners?
 #7. Is Republican AG candidate Mark Montiel a contender or a pretender?
 #6. How did the ALFA slate do?
 #5. Is Secretary of State Nancy Worley vulnerable in the Democratic primary?
 #4. Will money trump name-recognition in the Republican Lt. Governor’s race?
 #3. Is Alabama Power ‘the big winner?’
 #2. Are Roy Moore and his group finished as a powerful influence in Alabama politics?