Top 10 Most Interesting Questions: #6

I am still looking at the Top 10 Most Interesting Questions to Be Answered by the Primary Elections with the help of folks so knowledgeable about these things that I feel unworthy even to sit at their feet. We are up to number 6.

ALFA has endorsed forty candidates that have primary opposition on June 6. Thirty of them are candidates for the state legislature. One is for a candidate (Artur Davis) for the U.S. House of Representatives, and nine are for various state offices.

I am more interested in the candidates they endorse that are not incumbents. Incumbents have many campaign advantages with or without ALFA’s help. Let’s look at the “non-incumbents.”

In the House, ALFA endorses six Democrats, all incumbents save insurance agent Artis “A. J.” McCampbell (District 71) who is running for Rep. Lucius Black’s old seat. Rep. Black has not attended a legislative session since 2003 due to poor health and is stepping down. Mr. McCampbell reports the most campaign money among the three Democratic Party candidates, due largely to contributions from ALFA and a Greenetrack PAC. There is no Republican candidate for this seat.

On the other side of the House aisle, ALFA endorsed 13 Republicans, seven of them incumbents.

In District 11 (Blount, Cullman, Morgan counties), ALFA has endorsed David Ozment over incumbent Jeremy Oden. A source tells me that Oden is in trouble and may lose the primary in a runoff. (Carlton Smith is also running.)

Bobby Humphryes (R) is leaving his District 15 seat to run for Jefferson County Commission. Of the three Republicans running for the seat, ALFA has endorsed real estate investor and timber farmer Pat Moore. In the last financial disclosure statements, McCalla firefighter Steven Turner has raised virtually as much money as Pat Moore has (or easily more money if you don’t count the large sum that Pat Moore has loaned her campaign). Pat Moore’s campaign has only reported donations from individuals. She has not yet reported the cash prizes often associated with ALFA’s endorsement (if indeed there will be any). Justin Gurley is also running in the Republican primary. The winner of the seat will represent the District as no Democrats are running.

As mentioned before, Mac McCutcheon received ALFA’s endorsement against incumbent Ray Garner in House District 25 (Limestone & Madison Counties). Mr. McCutcheon is also receiving support from AEA in his effort to make Mr. Garner “one and done.”

Greg Wren has received ALFA’s endorsement in House District 75 (Elmore and Montgomery Counties) where Representative Dick Brewbaker is stepping down after one term. Opponent David Sikes has done a none-too-shabby job of raising money, but Wren has raised even more – especially when you consider that Wren has arranged for over $24,000 in loans for his campaign. Wren’s campaign has been at the center of some controversy recently for filing a 2002 campaign report four years late and also for having his firm sued by the business of GOP House Leader Mike Hubbard. Sikes reports that someone is generating communications to district residents accusing Sikes of planting the stories. Could be interesting. The primary winner will represent the District in the House.

Challenger Bill Harris received ALFA’s endorsement in District 88 (Autauga and Elmore Counties). I have been told “the GOP is trying to make an example of maverick GOPers like [incumbent Mac] Gipson.” Still I hear that Gipson is expected to win easily. Bill Harris is former executive director of the state Republican Party.

Chad Fincher has received the endorsement in District 102 (Mobile) where five Republicans vie for the nomination. Incumbent Rusty Glover is running for the State Senate. In the last campaign finance disclosure, Fincher reports almost twice as much money raised as any of his competitors thanks in part to PAC money from ALFA and the Realtors.

In the Senate primary races, ALFA endorses five Democrats, all incumbents. I will only mention that three of them are key players on one side of the leadership struggle among Senate Democrats: Jim Preuitt, Gerald Dial, and Jimmy Holley.

In Republican primary races for the Senate, ALFA endorses six candidates, only two of them incumbents. One of the incumbents is Hank Erwin, a first term senator who is a candidate for the “one and done” club.

In Senate District 3 (Limestone, Madison, and Morgan counties), political newcomer Arthur Orr received the ALFA endorsement and should win the primary over attorney Hubert “Mac” Porter, also a political newcomer.

Charles Bishop received ALFA’s endorsement for Senate District 5 where Curt Lee has stepped down. The nicest thing said to me about the former state Agriculture Commissioner and ex-State Senator was that he was “probably the last Senator to exchange blows on Senate floor.” My sources told me that he would probably win but that he was unpopular enough with the GOP electorate that former state representative Ed Frazier might pull off an upset. FWIW, one lobbiest told me that Frazier was as blatant as any legislator he’d ever known in quid pro quo, as in “You do something for my family, and I’ll do what you want.” Adam Arnold will also be on the ballot.

Challenger Scott Beason received ALFA’s endorsement over more moderate, former Democrat Jack Biddle in Senate District 17 (Blount, Jefferson, St. Clair counties). One observer points out that this is a good example of an ALFA/AEA fight. A campaign veteran tells me that Beason would probably win against anyone except the incumbent Biddle. The opinions I hear range from Biddle winning in a close one to Biddle winning comfortably. The aforementioned campaign veteran tells me that, though this campaign is an exception, the Republicans are seeing that the “younger, more aggressive, more assertive, Republican primary challenger can beat the more moderate Republican” which points to the future of Republican politics in Alabama. Columnist Steve Flowers also has a lot of background on this race.

Rusty Glover left his House seat to run for Senate District 34 where Hap Myers is not running for re-election. Glover got the ALFA endorsement in a crowded field (6 candidates), but the best source I have on this tells me that we should look for a run-off between Mobile city councilwoman Connie Hudson and former state rep Chris Pringle.

ALFA has endorsed ten other candidates including Perry Hooper for the PSC and five candidates for Supreme Court Justice seats (none of whom are in the conservative slate of Judge Roy Moore / Tom Parker).

As an aside, it might also be fun to check back after the election on the endorsements of the Business Council of Alabama. (AEA is another strong political force that supports candidates but I cannot find that they publish a list of endorsed candidates. Let me know if you know of one.)

Related posts:
Intro to Top 10 Most Interesting Questions
#10. Who is “one and done?”
 #9. Will the Democratic nominee for governor win the primary without a runoff?
 #8. Who will be the most noteworthy newcomer among primary winners?
 #7. Is Republican AG candidate Mark Montiel a contender or a pretender?