Democrat Charley Grimsley takes a swing at his Republican opponent in this ad running in Montgomery. (The ad buy will be expanded into other markets next week.) Grimsley and Republican Young Boozer are seeking to succeed Republican Kay Ivey in the Treasurer’s office.
A recent poll from “the polling company ™, inc. /WomanTrend” on behalf of Kay Ivey’s campaign for Lt. Governor has some interesting numbers. (You can find it all here in a .pdf file.)
Here are a few highlights…
- 45% of respondents say they will vote for Kay Ivey for Lt. Gov. (“definitely,” “probably,” or “lean”), while 35% respond saying they will vote for Jim Folsom.
- In the race for Governor, Bentley leads Sparks 55% to 29% (totalling “definitely,” “probably,” and “lean”).
- Young Boozer leads Charles Grimsley 46% to 25% in the Treasurer’s race.
43% of Alabamians intend to vote only or mostly for Republicans, 21% for Democrats, according to the poll.
Net favorable Ratings:
- Candidates for Lt. Governor
(R) Kay Ivey – 27% (38% Total Favorable minus 11% Total Unfavorable)
(D) Jim Folsom Jr. – 7% (37% minus 30%)
- From the Governor’s race
(R) Robert Bentley – 49% (61 minus 12)
(D) Ron Sparks – 10% (37 minus 27)
- Candidates for Treasurer
(R) Young Boozer – 9% (20 minus 11)
(D) Charles Grimsley – 1% (6 minus 5)
If you were looking for mitigating factors… those more knowledgeable than I in this realm have suggested that the 20% African-American sample may be a bit low. One told me that 22% would probably still be on the conservative side. Also, the sample may be a little on the young side, with 18 to 24 year-olds representing 12% of the poll’s sample, and those 65 and over representing 20% of the sample. Others have suggested that the youngest group might be nearer to 5% of the actual turnout, while the oldest group might be nearer to 30% of actual turnout. As Alabama becomes more red, the youngest group tends to be more Republican, and the oldest group tends to be more Democratic than other age ranges, a holdover from the days when Alabama was a one-party state.
There is still this question, which struck me as odd before and still does:
10. This November, (SPLIT SAMPLED: Democratic incumbent Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom, Jr.//Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom, Jr.) is seeking reelection. Do you think Jim Folsom, Jr. deserves to be reelected, or is it time to give a new person the chance to do the job? (PROBED: And would that be DEFINITELY or PROBABLY REELECT FOLSOM/GIVE SOMEONE ELSE/NEW PERSON?)
A hard re-elect number is often gathered many months out to figure a baseline of support for the incumbent, but we are into September. This question gives respondents info to think about when they answer the next question (which is, would you vote for Republican Kay Ivey or Democrat Jim Folsom, Jr.?), info that won’t be on the ballot. As I mentioned before, I’d like to know results on the Ivey/Folsom matchup question asked straight-up without the preceding question. There may be little difference, but results tend to be more meaningful when info not on the ballot is not presented in the poll.
The poll was taken August 30-31. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.
Lots of goodies are in there. Let us know what in there [.pdf] strikes you.
The executive committee of ALFA’s Farm-PAC met yesterday and approved the recommendations for endorsements made last week by its Farm-PAC advisory trustees.
In addition to the ones you already saw here at the Parlor in a sneak peek*, ALFA’s Farm-PAC also endorsed:
CD 5 – Steve Raby (D)
CD 7 – Terri Sewell (D)
Secretary of State – Beth Chapman (R)
State Auditor – Sam Shaw (R)
State Treasurer – Young Boozer (R)
ALFA’s Farm-PAC had already endorsed our incumbents in Washington, Supreme Court Justices Mike Bolin and Tom Parker, Supreme Court candidate Kelli Wise in Place 1, and Tommy Bryan in his re-election bid to the Court of Civil Appeals. Of those, Bobby Bright in Congressional District 2 is the only Democrat.
No endorsement was made in the governor’s race between Robert Bentley (R) and Ron Sparks (D).
See the ALFA announcement here.
*Kay Ivey (R) for Lt. Governor, Luther Strange (R) for AG, John McMillan (R) for Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries, Jan Cook (D) for PSC Place 1, and Susan Parker (D) for PSC Place 2 were noted here last week as receiving the recommendation for endorsement from ALFA’s Farm-PAC advisory trustees.
Charley Grimsley, Democratic candidate for state Treasurer, goes on the air statewide this Saturday with this ad.
He faces Jeremy Sherer in the Democratic primary. George Wallace, Jr., and Young Boozer square off in the GOP Primary.
Republican Young Boozer is airing what is, as far as I know, the first TV spot of the state Treasurer’s race.
He may be right that his name may be an asset for him in the race. It is, as he says, “unbelievably sticky.”
He faces George Wallace, Jr. in the Republican primary. The nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary between Charley Grimsley and Jeremy Sherer.
Undeclared candidates have until Friday, the do-or-die day, to wrestle through their decision-making processes, or perhaps to announce what was long ago decided, and qualify for the races that will be decided ultimately in the November general elections
Young Boozer makes official what we heard as a possibility eight months ago: he will enter the race for state Treasurer. The former deputy state finance director will challenge George Wallace, Jr. for the nomination.
Also, it’s no secret to those close to Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh that the former state GOP chair is considering another run for the Public Service Commission. Cavanaugh narrowly lost the PSC Presidency to Democrat Lucy Baxley in the 2008 general election and has been giving serious thought to running for the seat currently held by Democrat Jan Cook. Republicans Chip Beeker, Terry Dunn, and Stephen Evans have announced their candidacies for the seat.
Who else might we hear from by Friday?
Update: Multiple sources tell the Parlor that Cavanaugh has expressed interest in getting Beeker to switch races so that he would run for the PSC Commisioner’s seat held by Democrat Susan Parker, but we also hear that it’s not going to happen.
Charley Grimsley’s name will be on the ballot as a candidate for the nomination of Treasurer as a Democrat in good standing. A subcommittee of the State Democratic Executive Committee made the determination [.docx] yesterday by a unanimous vote with one abstention
Left in Alabama has an account of yesterday’s meeting.
Charley Grimsley, Democratic candidate for the Treasurer’s office, is having his candidacy challenged based on the state Democrats’ Radney Rule.
From Associated Press:
A member of the State Democratic Executive Committee, Pam Miles of Huntsville, filed a challenge with the State Democratic Party questioning whether Grimsley can run as a Democrat. She pointed out that Grimsley has contributed to Republican candidates and worked for Republican Lt. Gov. Steve Windom.
The Radney Rule allows a party member to challenge a potential candidate’s ballot qualification if the potential candidate supported a candidate for another party within the last four years. According to the challenge from Miles, Grimsley gave $500 to Secretary of State candidate Beth Chapman in August 2006 when Nancy Worley was the Democratic nominee. Over at Left in Alabama (who was first out with the story), Grimsley’s potential candidacy is finding few friends.
Speaking of the Radney Rule… Democratic political consultant Steve Raby has been mentioned as a potential candidate for Congressional District AL-05. Would he be vulnerable to a Radney Rule challenge himself through contributions he directed to Republicans through his PAC [.pdf]? Or would it be not so much of an issue because the contributions are technically from his PAC (albeit presumably at his direction) and not directly from himself?
Update: Readers have pointed out that the Democratic Party by-laws state that no candidate is permitted to qualify as a Democrat “who did not support the nominees of the Democratic Party in all Special or General Elections during the past four years.” While Raby has given to plenty of Republicans, he seems to do it during primaries, not during the general election cycle where you could say he was not supporting the Democratic nominee, at least as far as I have seen. Furthermore, the by-laws allow such a potential candidate to renounce his previous allegiance, explain the error of her ways, and “If, after such a hearing, the Executive Board is convinced by a preponderance of the evidence that such a person would be an asset to the Democratic Party, the Executive Board may, by a vote of two-thirds of those present and voting, allow that person to seek office as a Democrat.”
And, as has been pointed out, in Raby’s case this may be moot as he has not shown strong inclination to run for AL-05. But haven’t we all learned something.
The state Democratic Party’s by-laws may be found here in .pdf form.
Both Ronald Stokes (in an email to the Parlor) and Terry Dunn have dropped out of the race. Each have plans to seek future state wide office.
This leaves George Wallace, Jr, unopposed in the Republican primary and facing either Charley Grimsley or Jeremy Sherer, depending on the results of the Democratic Primary.
BTW, does Wallace have a web site, searches don’t lead to one.
Continue reading “The Republican field narrows in the State Treasurer race”