 Posted by Danny, on October 28th, 2010, at 8:44 am  Come Wednesday morning the state GOP hopes to find itself with a Senate majority for the first time in 136 years. I’ve listened carefully enough in the right corners that I can tell you how the GOP believes that can happen.
In the 35 seat Senate, a caucus needs 18 votes to have a majority.
Five Republican incumbents are unopposed: Arthur Orr in SD 3, Jabo Waggoner in SD 16, Jimmy Holley in SD 31, Tripp Pittman in SD 32, and Rusty Glover in SD 34. Two more Republicans will be entering the Senate without any opposition: state Rep. Cam Ward in SD 14 (in the seat Hank Erwin vacated to run for Lt. Gov) and Slade Blackwell in SD 15 (in the seat last held by Republican Steven French).
The GOP feels quite good about its chances in six other races:
- Paul Bussman in SD 4 (against incumbent Zeb Little),
- Greg Reed in SD 5 (against Brett Wadsworth for the seat vacated by Republican Charles Bishop),
- Clay Scofield in SD 9 (against Tim Mitchell for the seat vacated by retiring Democrat Hinton Mitchem),
- Del Marsh in SD 12 (against Wallace Wyatt),
- Scott Beason in SD 17 (against Tommy Hudson),
- Dick Brewbaker in SD 25 (against Doug Smith for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Larry Dixon).
Only two of those are GOP incumbents (Beason and Marsh) but Republicans have felt quite good about their chances in these elections.
The Republicans believe with only some less confidence than they have in the above races that they are likely to win two more races:
- Bill Holtzclaw who is challenging Dem Tom Butler in SD 2, and
- Incumbent Ben Brooks in SD 35 (against Scott Buzbee)
If you are keeping up, you know that these total 15 seats. If they win those 15, then the keys to winning the Senate lie in three district races that the GOP believes are clearly leaning their way:
- SD 21 where state Rep. Gerald Allen is challenging Democratic incumbent Phil Poole,
- SD 27 where former Dem Tom Whatley is challenging Democratic incumbent Ted Little, and
- SD 30 where Bryan Taylor is challenging Democratic incumbent Walking Wendell Mitchell
Those three Democratic Senators have served a combined 76 years or nineteen terms in the state Senate, and the GOP believes they are poised to send them packing.
Victories in all of the above races would give the GOP 18 votes necessary to claim a Senate majority.
In addition, four other Republicans could provide either a larger majority or a cushion in case the Dems pull surprises in any of the above races. Incumbent Paul Sanford in SD 7 (fighting off a challenge from Jeff Enfinger), Phil Williams in SD 10 (against Dem incumbent Larry Means), Gerald Dial in SD 13 (against Greg Varner for Democrat Kim Benefield‘s old seat), and Danny Joyner in SD 22 (against incumbent Marc Keahey) are in races that the GOP believes are leaning their way.
Other races could go their way as well, but here is the path that the GOP sees to a Senate majority.
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Posted by Danny, on October 27th, 2010, at 1:18 pm Republican Bryan Taylor has a new ad running in Senate District 30.
Taylor is challenging seven-term state Senator Wendell Mitchell, a Democrat.
Posted by Danny, on October 20th, 2010, at 3:06 pm Good helpers from across the spectrum have helped the Parlor update our rankings of the state Senate races. Let’s jump in and look at ten races that we are moving from the last time we updated the races.
- SD 4 moves from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Senate Majority Leader and three term incumbent Zeb Little (D) has a fight on his hands with Republican challenger Paul Bussman (R). Will Little’s new ad addressing his DUI help him in the stretch run?
- SD 6 from Safe DEM to Likely DEM – In a year where the markers are lining up the Republicans’ way, few seats are safe – to the point that Republican Jim Bonner’s chances look some more promising than before in his challenge against six-term Democratic Senator Roger Bedford.
- SD 7 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Dems expected former legislator Jeff Enfinger to mount a strong challenge against freshman Republican Senator Paul Sanford. With Enfinger’s campaign facing tough questions about years-old financial irregularity, his odds looks longer. (Kudos to Flashpointblog who was sniffing out this issue from the get-go.)
- SD 8 from Likely DEM to Lean DEM – When has the GOP had this good of a shot at the Senate Democratic veteran Lowell Barron? The seven term Senator faces Republican Shad McGill.
- SD 9 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Outgoing Democrat Hinton Mitchem was a prime example of how the Dems held the state legislature so long in a state moving right; he was a deep-rooted incumbent holding fast against shifting political winds. He’s gone, and Republican Clay Scofield looks primed to win the seat against Democrat Tim Mitchell.
- SD 10 from Likely DEM to Toss Up – Democrat Larry Means is strong in his district, but the recent indictment gives Republican Phil Williams an opening.
- SD 13 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – This is the only district moving in the Democrats’ direction in the estimation of our contributors. Democrat Greg Varner faces former Senator (and former Democrat) Gerald Dial in a race for the seat being vacated by Democrat Kim Benefield.
- SD 21 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Republican state Rep. Gerald Allen is giving four term Democratic Senator Phil Poole a strong challenge.
- SD 27 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Eight term (!) Democratic incumbent Ted Little has his hands full with former Dem Tom Whatley in a year when it’s good to have the R next to the name.
- SD 30 from Lean DEM to Toss Up – Democrat Wendell Mitchell is in his seventh term, but Republican Bryan Taylor hopes to make it Mitchell’s last.
Here’s what the chart looks like (red indicates a move to the right, blue to the left):
| Alabama State Senate Races |
| Safe DEM |
Likely DEM |
Lean DEM |
Toss Up |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
18
19
20
23
24
26
28
33 |
1
6 |
8
11
22 |
2
10
13
30 |
4
7
21
27 |
5
9
12
25
35 |
3
14
15
16
17
31
32
34 |
| Lean Independent: |
29 |
If this chart is our starting place, then the Republicans’ chances of ending the Democrats’ 136 year reign of controlling the Senate are looking better and better. The Democrats aren’t out of it by any means; if they win all the toss-ups and the ones on their side of the chart, that represents 17 of the 18 votes necessary to claim a majority. They certainly could get to 18 if they pick up one from the right side or perhaps get erstwhile Republican Harri Anne Smith to caucus with them if she wins re-election as an Independent.
But it sure is easier to see how it works out for the Republicans. For example if they win just two of the four listed here as toss-ups, they could even lose one from their side of the chart and still win the Senate.
Posted by Danny, on October 6th, 2010, at 4:35 pm Democrat Wendell Mitchell takes aim at Republican challenger Bryan Taylor with this ad on the air in Senate District 30.
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Posted by Danny, on October 1st, 2010, at 3:51 pm Republican Bryan Taylor raises the issue of the legislators’ pay raise in his new ad in Senate District 30.
The $71,880 figure on the screen is the dollar figure for the raise for a full four year term.
__
The campaign has also sent this recent mailer. Click on the picture to see the mailer full-sized in a .pdf file.
Continue reading “GOP Challenger Taylor Hits Pay Raise Issue in SD 30 Ad”
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Posted by Danny, on September 10th, 2010, at 8:53 am State Senator “Walking” Wendell Mitchell is airing this TV spot in Senate District 30. The Democrat faces a challenge from Republican challenger Bryan Taylor.
This commercial is a companion piece to this radio ad.
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Posted by Danny, on September 10th, 2010, at 7:29 am If you enjoy Bryan Taylor’s campaign ad this year for Senate District 30:
Then you’ll like Tommy Battle’s campaign spot for his successful run for Huntsville mayor in 2008:
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Posted by Danny, on September 3rd, 2010, at 12:15 pm Walking Wendell Mitchell begins running this radio spot today for his re-election campaign in Senate District 30. Note that the Democrat is running it on, among other places, the conservative News Talk 107.9 in Montgomery.
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Mitchell faces Republican nominee Bryan Taylor in November.
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Posted by Danny, on August 27th, 2010, at 10:53 am State Sen. Wendell Mitchell hit mailboxes yesterday with a mailer thanking constituents for support during his recent illness.
The seven-term incumbent faces Republican nominee Bryan Taylor in a race for the Senate District 30 seat that Republicans hope represents a pick-up opportunity.
Inside the mailer (click the pic to see a scan in a .pdf file):
The front (click it to see a larger scan in a pdf file):
Continue reading “SD 30: Mitchell in the Mailbox”
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Posted by Danny, on August 26th, 2010, at 8:57 am Bryan Taylor went on the air yesterday with this TV spot in the Montgomery market. The Republican is challenging Democratic state Senator ‘Walking’ Wendell Mitchell in Senate District 30.
Posted by Danny, on August 11th, 2010, at 3:05 pm Bryan Taylor goes on broadcast and cable TV this evening with this new spot. The Republican is challenging Democratic incumbent ‘Walking’ Wendell Mitchell for the Senate District 30 seat.
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Posted by Danny, on July 29th, 2010, at 5:59 pm  July’s REDMAP Political Report [.pdf] from the Republican State Leadership Committee contends that nationally in 2010 Republicans will pick up control of four legislative chambers, that Democrats will not pick up any, and that twelve chambers controlled by Democrats (including Alabama’s House and Senate) are “solidly in play.”
The report explains, “The REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP) is a program of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) dedicated to winning Republican control of state legislatures that will have the most impact on Congressional redistricting in 2011.”
According to the report, three open state Senate seats in Alabama are in play, one held by a Republican and two held by Democrats. In addition, seven Democratic incumbents and two Republican incumbents hold seats are in play. The GOP needs to pick up a net of three Senate seats to control the chamber.
Let’s see… There are more than three open Senate seats, so they must be keying on SD 5 (being vacated by Republican Charles Bishop), SD 9 (Democrat Hinton Mitchem), and SD 13 (Democrat Kim Benefield) as the ones in play.
The two Republican Senate incumbents whose seats are in play must be Paul Sanford (SD 7) and Jim Preuitt (SD 11).
Now the seven Democratic incumbents whose Senate seats are in play… they must be Tom Butler (SD 2), Zeb Little (SD 4), Phil Poole (SD 21), Ted Little (SD 27), Wendell Mitchell (SD 30), and… hmm… a Republican familiar with the situation confirms that the last two are Lowell Barron (SD 8) and Larry Means (SD 10). Those two and Marc Keahey in SD 22 were the threesome I was trying to choose among for the last two spots.
On the state House side… The GOP needs to pick up a net of 8 seats. The Report offers that four open seats held by Democrats are in play in Alabama. They must mean four of these five: HD 8 (being vacated by Bill Dukes), HD 9 (Ron Grantland), HD 26 (Frank McDaniel), HD 85 (Locy Baker) and HD 92 (Seth Hammett). I suppose HD 85 is the one not being included.
The Report also contends that seats held by nine Democratic incumbents are in play. I suppose they mean Mike Curtis (HD 2), Henry White (HD 5), James Fields (HD 12), Ken Guin (HD 14), Jeff McLaughlin (HD 27), Jimmy Martin (HD 42), Lesley Vance (HD 80), Betty Carol Graham (HD 81), and Terry Spicer (HD 91).
No House seats held by Republican incumbents are indicated to be in play though I believe the argument could be made that David Grimes (HD 73) or possibly DuWayne Bridges (HD 38) are as vulnerable as, say, James Fields.
The full report is here in .pdf form. The website for the Republican State Leadership Committee is here.
If you would like to play along with the home version of the game, the 2010 House Elections Directory and Senate Elections Directory may be helpful though the ratings of the districts found there (lean Dem, likely GOP, etc.) are overdue for review.
Posted by Danny, on July 21st, 2010, at 12:26 pm  GOP challenger Bryan Taylor polls four points ahead of Democratic incumbent “Walking” Wendell Mitchell, within the margin of error, in a recent poll of Senate District 30 by McLaughlin & Associates. Here is a copy of the polling memo [.pdf] prepared for the state Republican Party.
An excerpt:
Bryan Taylor has a four point advantage over incumbent Wendell Mitchell on the ballot for State Senate in Alabama’s 30th district (44% to 40%). Another 16% of voters are undecided. Bryan Taylor leads 43% to 35% among Independent voters.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Robert Bentley leads Democrat Ron Sparks 56% to 33% in the district according to the poll.
The margin of error is ±5.7%.
Taylor has to be encouraged with this strong showing against a seven term incumbent. Mitchell supporters looking for a silver lining will remember that Mitchell was believed to be vulnerable in 2006 and survived a particularly ugly campaign in which his opponent spent over $850,000 against him. Mitchell ended up winning that one 62% to 38%.
Clients for McLaughlin & Associates include the state Republican Party, U.S. Senators Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby, and Congressmen Robert Aderholt (AL-4) and Mike Rogers (AL-3).
Posted by Danny, on May 28th, 2010, at 12:04 pm Republican Bryan Taylor calls for term limits and repealing the legislators’ pay raise in his new ad in the race for Senate District 30 GOP nomination.
Taylor faces Ken Barnett and Ray Boles in the GOP primary. The winner will face Democratic incumbent Wendell Mitchell.
Posted by Danny, on May 11th, 2010, at 8:11 pm Republican Ray Boles was, as far as I know, the first candidate for Senate District 30 with a TV spot.
In it, we have another state candidate running against Washington. Boles faces Ken Barnett and Bryan Taylor in the GOP primary to see who will face Democratic incumbent Wendell Mitchell.
http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/wp-content/uploads/Ray-Boles-For-State-Senate.flv
I was sent a copy of this ad a couple of weeks ago and would have posted it sooner had it not fallen between the cracks at this end. I do appreciate readers who send items like this along and am sorry for the delay.
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