 Posted by Danny, on October 28th, 2010, at 10:33 am  Thanks to political insiders on both sides of the aisle who have helped us reconsider the ratings on the state House races.
I’d like to expand on this a bit later, but for now let us simply get right to it with little comment.
Here is how the ratings have changed.
HD 1 from Toss Up to Lean Dem – Greg Burdine (D) v. Quinton Hanson (R) for the seat vacated by Tammy Irons (D)
HD 2 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Mike Curtis (D) v. Lynn Greer (R)
HD 5 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – incumbent Henry White (D) v. Dan Williams (R) with Independent Jerry Hill in the race also.
HD 7 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Jody Letson (D) v. Ken Johnson (R)
HD 8 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Drama Breland (D) v. Terri Collins (R) for the seat vacated by Bill Dukes (D)
HD 9 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Kathy White Goodwin (D) v. Ed Henry (R) for the seat held by Ron Grantland (D)
HD 12 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent James Fields (D) v. Mac Buttram (R)
HD 13 from Likely Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Tommy Sherer (D) v. Bill Roberts (R)
HD 14 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Ken Guin (D) v. Richard Baughn (R)
HD 16 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent William Thigpen (D) v. Daniel Boman (R)
HD 21 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Randy Hinshaw (D) v. Jim Patterson (R)
HD 22 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Butch Taylor (D) v. Wayne Johnson (R)
HD 24 from Likely GOP to Lean GOP – Nathaniel Ledbetter (D) v. incumbent Todd Greeson (R)
HD 27 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Jeff McLaughlin (D) v. Wes Long (R)
HD 29 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Jack Page (D) v. Becky Nordgren (R)
HD 35 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Steve Hurst (D) v. Steven Dean (R)
HD 37 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Richard Laird (D) v. Bob Fincher (R)
HD 39 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Richard Lindsey (D) v. Timothy Sprayberry (R)
HD 42 from Lean Dem to Lean GOP – incumbent Jimmy Martin (D) v. Kurt Wallace (R)
HD 61 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Alan Harper (D) v. Frank Chandler (R)
HD 62 from Likely GOP to Safe GOP – John Merrill (R) v. Constitution Party candidate Steven Kneussle. Dem candidate dropped out.
HD 63 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Susan Pace Hamill (D) v. Bill Poole (R) for the seat vacated by GOP gubernatorial candidate Robert Bentley.
HD 73 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – Joe Hubbard (D) v. incumbent David Grimes (R)
HD 80 from Safe Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Lesley Vance (D) v. Mervin Dudley (R)
HD 81 from Lean Dem to Lean GOP – incumbent Betty Carol Graham (D) v. Mark Tuggle (R)
HD 84 from Safe Dem to Likely Dem – Berry Forte (D) v. Joyce Perrin (R) for the seat vacated by Billy Beasley (D)
HD 86 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – Merritt Carothers (D) v. Paul Lee (R) for the seat vacated by Benjamin Lewis (R)
HD 90 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Charles Newton (D) v. Jerry Hartin (R)
HD 91 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Terry Spicer (D) v. Barry Moore (R)
HD 92 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – David Darby (D) v. Mike Jones (R) for the seat opened by the retirement of Seth Hammett (D)
HD 93 from Likely GOP to Safe GOP – Ronnie Helms (D) v. incumbent Steve Clouse (R)
With 105 seats in the House, 53 is a majority. If you look at the whole list and tally them up, you see 53 in the red (lean, likely or safe GOP), 43 in the blue (lean, likely, or safe Democrat), and 9 toss ups. There will be some surprises, but with this as our starting point there will have to be a lot of surprises in the Dems’ favor or we are looking at a GOP majority in the state House.
Related Articles:
Posted by Danny, on July 29th, 2010, at 5:59 pm  July’s REDMAP Political Report [.pdf] from the Republican State Leadership Committee contends that nationally in 2010 Republicans will pick up control of four legislative chambers, that Democrats will not pick up any, and that twelve chambers controlled by Democrats (including Alabama’s House and Senate) are “solidly in play.”
The report explains, “The REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP) is a program of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) dedicated to winning Republican control of state legislatures that will have the most impact on Congressional redistricting in 2011.”
According to the report, three open state Senate seats in Alabama are in play, one held by a Republican and two held by Democrats. In addition, seven Democratic incumbents and two Republican incumbents hold seats are in play. The GOP needs to pick up a net of three Senate seats to control the chamber.
Let’s see… There are more than three open Senate seats, so they must be keying on SD 5 (being vacated by Republican Charles Bishop), SD 9 (Democrat Hinton Mitchem), and SD 13 (Democrat Kim Benefield) as the ones in play.
The two Republican Senate incumbents whose seats are in play must be Paul Sanford (SD 7) and Jim Preuitt (SD 11).
Now the seven Democratic incumbents whose Senate seats are in play… they must be Tom Butler (SD 2), Zeb Little (SD 4), Phil Poole (SD 21), Ted Little (SD 27), Wendell Mitchell (SD 30), and… hmm… a Republican familiar with the situation confirms that the last two are Lowell Barron (SD 8) and Larry Means (SD 10). Those two and Marc Keahey in SD 22 were the threesome I was trying to choose among for the last two spots.
On the state House side… The GOP needs to pick up a net of 8 seats. The Report offers that four open seats held by Democrats are in play in Alabama. They must mean four of these five: HD 8 (being vacated by Bill Dukes), HD 9 (Ron Grantland), HD 26 (Frank McDaniel), HD 85 (Locy Baker) and HD 92 (Seth Hammett). I suppose HD 85 is the one not being included.
The Report also contends that seats held by nine Democratic incumbents are in play. I suppose they mean Mike Curtis (HD 2), Henry White (HD 5), James Fields (HD 12), Ken Guin (HD 14), Jeff McLaughlin (HD 27), Jimmy Martin (HD 42), Lesley Vance (HD 80), Betty Carol Graham (HD 81), and Terry Spicer (HD 91).
No House seats held by Republican incumbents are indicated to be in play though I believe the argument could be made that David Grimes (HD 73) or possibly DuWayne Bridges (HD 38) are as vulnerable as, say, James Fields.
The full report is here in .pdf form. The website for the Republican State Leadership Committee is here.
If you would like to play along with the home version of the game, the 2010 House Elections Directory and Senate Elections Directory may be helpful though the ratings of the districts found there (lean Dem, likely GOP, etc.) are overdue for review.
Posted by Danny, on April 13th, 2010, at 10:21 am The House Elections Directory is updated with ratings for the races.
Out of 105 races, 50 are rated as Safe, Likely or Lean on the Democratic side, and 49 are on the Republican side.
 Watch for upsets of course, but the race for 53 seats and control of the state House for the next quadrennium may turn largely on six seats (1, 2, 8, 14, 85, and 91).
- HD 1 is open as Rep. Tammy Irons (D) is running for the Senate. It wouldn’t take much to nudge this into the “lean Dem” category where some believe it belongs already.
- First term Democratic incumbent Mike Curtis is being challenged by former state Rep. Lynn Greer in HD 2.
- Democratic Rep. Bill Dukes announced his retirement in HD 8, and then reconsidered. He faces two Republican challengers. Without Dukes, this race probably is rated on the Republican side. With him, many Democrats feel very good about their chances.
- Two Republicans are vying to unseat House Majority Leader Ken Guin in HD 14, including state Sen. Charles Bishop who is making a bid to switch legislative houses.
- In HD 85, four Democrats and two Republicans compete for the seat being vacated by Democrat Locy ‘Sonny’ Baker who is running for Senate District 28.
- Republican challenger Barry Moore hopes the demographics of HD 91 will help him unseat Democratic incumbent Terry Spicer.
House District 5 is one to watch. First-term Democratic incumbent Henry White is getting a challenge from three Republicans and an independent. The demographics appear to be moving the district to the right, and Republicans are particularly excited to have popular Athens Mayor Dan Williams in the race who they believe is quite capable, or even likely, of claiming the seat for the GOP. Democrats note that White went through three tough races (primary, runoff, general) in 2006 when he won the seat and believe that he should not be underestimated. What factor will independent Jerry Hill, also from Athens, play? While partisans will make strong arguments that the rating should be moved to the right or to the left, the rating here for now is “Lean Republican.”
Here is a summary of how the races stack up.
| Alabama State House Races |
| Safe DEM |
Likely DEM |
Lean DEM |
Toss Up |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
3
17
18
19
23
28
32
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
65
67
68
69
70
71
72
76
77
78
80
82
83
84
89
97
98
99
103 |
7
13
16
29
37
39
61
90 |
12
21
22
27
35
42
81 |
1
2
8
14
85
91 |
5
9
26
38
45
63
73
86
92 |
4
24
30
36
40
43
47
62
75
87
93 |
6
10
11
15
20
25
31
33
34
41
44
46
48
49
50
51
64
66
74
79
88
94
95
96
100
101
102
104
105 |
See the entire House Elections Directory here.
Related Articles:
|
Legislative DispatchBy Joe Hubbard on June 8, 2011 This Thursday will mark the last day of the legislative Session. For some, it was a Session that seemed would never end. For others, it was one that ended much too quickly. It may be early, yet, to write an obit on this Session, but as we approach the finish line, some perspective may be in order.
[...]
AL House, AL Senate, Legislative Dispatch, Uncategorized | By John Merrill on May 24, 2011 As you know, a very important piece of legislation will be presented for our consideration in the House tomorrow in Montgomery – Senate Bill 310 – the “Students First” tenure and fair dismissal reform bill. Like me, many House members have been inundated with phone calls and emails from opponents of this bill, and some have been [...]
Legislative Dispatch | By Cam Ward on May 17, 2011 There are a lot of issues to debate before we begin the final days of this session. In fact, I am quite certain there will be some comments on this post debating many of them. Before we get into the last seven day of the session I wanted to bring up a topic that [...]
Legislative Dispatch | |
|
