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Thanks to political insiders on both sides of the aisle who have helped us reconsider the ratings on the state House races.
I’d like to expand on this a bit later, but for now let us simply get right to it with little comment.
Here is how the ratings have changed.
HD 1 from Toss Up to Lean Dem – Greg Burdine (D) v. Quinton Hanson (R) for the seat vacated by Tammy Irons (D)
HD 2 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Mike Curtis (D) v. Lynn Greer (R)
HD 5 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – incumbent Henry White (D) v. Dan Williams (R) with Independent Jerry Hill in the race also.
HD 7 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Jody Letson (D) v. Ken Johnson (R)
HD 8 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Drama Breland (D) v. Terri Collins (R) for the seat vacated by Bill Dukes (D)
HD 9 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Kathy White Goodwin (D) v. Ed Henry (R) for the seat held by Ron Grantland (D)
HD 12 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent James Fields (D) v. Mac Buttram (R)
HD 13 from Likely Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Tommy Sherer (D) v. Bill Roberts (R)
HD 14 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Ken Guin (D) v. Richard Baughn (R)
HD 16 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent William Thigpen (D) v. Daniel Boman (R)
HD 21 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Randy Hinshaw (D) v. Jim Patterson (R)
HD 22 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Butch Taylor (D) v. Wayne Johnson (R)
HD 24 from Likely GOP to Lean GOP – Nathaniel Ledbetter (D) v. incumbent Todd Greeson (R)
HD 27 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Jeff McLaughlin (D) v. Wes Long (R)
HD 29 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Jack Page (D) v. Becky Nordgren (R)
HD 35 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Steve Hurst (D) v. Steven Dean (R)
HD 37 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Richard Laird (D) v. Bob Fincher (R)
HD 39 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Richard Lindsey (D) v. Timothy Sprayberry (R)
HD 42 from Lean Dem to Lean GOP – incumbent Jimmy Martin (D) v. Kurt Wallace (R)
HD 61 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Alan Harper (D) v. Frank Chandler (R)
HD 62 from Likely GOP to Safe GOP – John Merrill (R) v. Constitution Party candidate Steven Kneussle. Dem candidate dropped out.
HD 63 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Susan Pace Hamill (D) v. Bill Poole (R) for the seat vacated by GOP gubernatorial candidate Robert Bentley.
HD 73 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – Joe Hubbard (D) v. incumbent David Grimes (R)
HD 80 from Safe Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Lesley Vance (D) v. Mervin Dudley (R)
HD 81 from Lean Dem to Lean GOP – incumbent Betty Carol Graham (D) v. Mark Tuggle (R)
HD 84 from Safe Dem to Likely Dem – Berry Forte (D) v. Joyce Perrin (R) for the seat vacated by Billy Beasley (D)
HD 86 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – Merritt Carothers (D) v. Paul Lee (R) for the seat vacated by Benjamin Lewis (R)
HD 90 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Charles Newton (D) v. Jerry Hartin (R)
HD 91 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Terry Spicer (D) v. Barry Moore (R)
HD 92 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – David Darby (D) v. Mike Jones (R) for the seat opened by the retirement of Seth Hammett (D)
HD 93 from Likely GOP to Safe GOP – Ronnie Helms (D) v. incumbent Steve Clouse (R)
With 105 seats in the House, 53 is a majority. If you look at the whole list and tally them up, you see 53 in the red (lean, likely or safe GOP), 43 in the blue (lean, likely, or safe Democrat), and 9 toss ups. There will be some surprises, but with this as our starting point there will have to be a lot of surprises in the Dems’ favor or we are looking at a GOP majority in the state House.
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