 Posted by Danny, on October 28th, 2010, at 8:44 am  Come Wednesday morning the state GOP hopes to find itself with a Senate majority for the first time in 136 years. I’ve listened carefully enough in the right corners that I can tell you how the GOP believes that can happen.
In the 35 seat Senate, a caucus needs 18 votes to have a majority.
Five Republican incumbents are unopposed: Arthur Orr in SD 3, Jabo Waggoner in SD 16, Jimmy Holley in SD 31, Tripp Pittman in SD 32, and Rusty Glover in SD 34. Two more Republicans will be entering the Senate without any opposition: state Rep. Cam Ward in SD 14 (in the seat Hank Erwin vacated to run for Lt. Gov) and Slade Blackwell in SD 15 (in the seat last held by Republican Steven French).
The GOP feels quite good about its chances in six other races:
- Paul Bussman in SD 4 (against incumbent Zeb Little),
- Greg Reed in SD 5 (against Brett Wadsworth for the seat vacated by Republican Charles Bishop),
- Clay Scofield in SD 9 (against Tim Mitchell for the seat vacated by retiring Democrat Hinton Mitchem),
- Del Marsh in SD 12 (against Wallace Wyatt),
- Scott Beason in SD 17 (against Tommy Hudson),
- Dick Brewbaker in SD 25 (against Doug Smith for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Larry Dixon).
Only two of those are GOP incumbents (Beason and Marsh) but Republicans have felt quite good about their chances in these elections.
The Republicans believe with only some less confidence than they have in the above races that they are likely to win two more races:
- Bill Holtzclaw who is challenging Dem Tom Butler in SD 2, and
- Incumbent Ben Brooks in SD 35 (against Scott Buzbee)
If you are keeping up, you know that these total 15 seats. If they win those 15, then the keys to winning the Senate lie in three district races that the GOP believes are clearly leaning their way:
- SD 21 where state Rep. Gerald Allen is challenging Democratic incumbent Phil Poole,
- SD 27 where former Dem Tom Whatley is challenging Democratic incumbent Ted Little, and
- SD 30 where Bryan Taylor is challenging Democratic incumbent Walking Wendell Mitchell
Those three Democratic Senators have served a combined 76 years or nineteen terms in the state Senate, and the GOP believes they are poised to send them packing.
Victories in all of the above races would give the GOP 18 votes necessary to claim a Senate majority.
In addition, four other Republicans could provide either a larger majority or a cushion in case the Dems pull surprises in any of the above races. Incumbent Paul Sanford in SD 7 (fighting off a challenge from Jeff Enfinger), Phil Williams in SD 10 (against Dem incumbent Larry Means), Gerald Dial in SD 13 (against Greg Varner for Democrat Kim Benefield‘s old seat), and Danny Joyner in SD 22 (against incumbent Marc Keahey) are in races that the GOP believes are leaning their way.
Other races could go their way as well, but here is the path that the GOP sees to a Senate majority.
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Posted by Danny, on October 27th, 2010, at 1:34 pm Republican Greg Reed pushes back against Democratic opponent Brett Wadsworth’s latest ad with one of his own.
I can’t help but note the smack in the pejorative phrase “unknown Democratic Senate candidate.”
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Posted by Danny, on October 16th, 2010, at 2:29 pm Democrat Brett Wadsworth began running this ad yesterday on cable in Senate District 5.
Wadsworth faces Republican Greg Reed in a race to succeed Republican Senator Charles Bishop.
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Posted by Danny, on September 27th, 2010, at 2:53 pm  With good help from residents of quite different parts of the political spectrum, the Senate Elections Directory has been updated with ratings for the races (“Lean DEM,” “Likely GOP,” etc.)
The five changes from the last time we updated this are:
- SD 1 from Lean DEM to Likely DEM – Democratic state Rep. Tammy Irons looks quite strong in her bid against Republican Gerald Freeman to replace Democrat Bobby Denton.
- SD 5 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Republican Greg Reed is looking like more of a favorite in the race with Democrat Brett Wadsworth to succeed Republican Charles Bishop.
- SD 11 from Lean GOP to Lean DEM – After switching parties, incumbent Jim Preuitt was headed toward his first race as a Republican until he abruptly withdrew from the race. Democrats were already hopeful about their chances with their nominee Jerry Fielding and are even more so with the incumbent out of the race, replaced by Ray Robbins.
- SD 27 from Lean DEM to Toss Up – Many are high on Tom Whatley’s chances of unseating Democrat incumbent Ted Little and would put this one in the Republican column. On the other hand, a lot of money is expected to drop in this race and Whatley is not without his own soft spots.
- SD 29 from Toss Up to Lean Independent – State Sen. Harri Anne Smith has polled well even after her switch from the Republican to the Independent column, and there is not yet any real indication that GOP nominee George Flowers is picking up any traction against the incumbent. Democrat Jennifer Adams dropping out of the race will only help Smith in that any Democrats who vote in the race are more likely to vote for Smith than the Republican Flowers.
Here is the chart. Colored numbers indicate that has district has moved left (blue), right (red), or independent (purple).
| Alabama State Senate Races |
| Safe DEM |
Likely DEM |
Lean DEM |
Toss Up |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
6
18
19
20
23
24
26
28
33 |
1
8
10 |
11
22
30 |
2
4
7
21
27 |
9
13 |
5
12
25
35 |
3
14
15
16
17
31
32
34 |
| Lean Independent: |
29 |
So which party will organize the leadership of the Senate for the next quadrennium?
Well, if the above chart is our starting place, the Democrats have an advantage in 15 races, and the Republicans have an advantage in 14 races. Surprises are no doubt ahead of us somewhere on the chart, but for now we consider that the organizing control of the state Senate may be decided by the five toss-up races in districts 2, 4, 7, 21, and 27 – and by the not insignificant question of which party Harri Anne Smith would organize with if she is re-elected.
All five of these toss-up races have incumbents facing stiff challenges (incumbent is listed first):
SD 2: Tom Butler (D) v. Bill Holtzclaw (R)
SD 4: Zeb Little (D) v. Paul Bussman (R)
SD 7: Paul Sanford (R) v. Jeff Enfinger (D)
SD 21: Phil Poole (D) v. Gerald Allen (R)
SD 27: Ted Little (D) v. Tom Whatley (R)
On the Smith question… she has been elected to the state Senate three times as a Republican and proclaims herself a Republican in her latest campaign commercial. On the other hand, might her loyalty to the GOP caucus have slipped a bit after the state GOP kept her from running for re-election as a Republican this year? She is a former Democrat and even as a Republican endorsed Democrat Bobby Bright for Congress in 2008. Yet, she is quite close to Republican Scott Beason, arguably the most conservative state Senator in the statehouse. One Montgomery Republican tells the Parlor that Smith would vote for Beason to be Senate President pro tem but not Del Marsh (R – Anniston).
So who will control the Senate? Let’s say… a better than even chance that it’s the GOP.
Watch for an update on the House races.
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Posted by Danny, on June 25th, 2010, at 8:43 am If you enjoy blindfolded state Senate candidates being good sports at a Walker County rodeo, then today is your lucky day.
Republican Greg Reed and Democrat Brett Wadsworth, November opponents in the race to succeed Republican Charles Bishop in Senate District 5, do the Watermelon Crawl in what the P.A. announcer calls the “2010 EASI Rodeo Candidate Poll for the State Senate Race.”
Update: It’s EASI, not “easy,” as in “Equines Assisting Special Individuals.”
Thanks to readers W & J.
Posted by Danny, on May 12th, 2010, at 2:56 pm Republican Greg Reed seeks to succeed the outgoing Republican incumbent Charles Bishop in SD 5. This TV spot, his second, began airing Monday “in Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, and Walker Counties along with coverage for all of north central Alabama, including Winston County, via broadcast television,” according to the campaign.
Reed faces Thad Turnipseed in the Republican primary. The GOP nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary between Bill Cleghorn and Brett Wadsworth.
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Posted by Danny, on April 26th, 2010, at 3:29 pm Republican Greg Reed begins to make the case for why he should succeed Republican Charles Bishop in Senate District 5 with this ad that is showing in Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, and Walker Counties.
Reed faces Thad Turnipseed in the GOP primary. The GOP nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary between Bill Cleghorn and Bret Wadsworth.
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Legislative DispatchBy Joe Hubbard on June 8, 2011 This Thursday will mark the last day of the legislative Session. For some, it was a Session that seemed would never end. For others, it was one that ended much too quickly. It may be early, yet, to write an obit on this Session, but as we approach the finish line, some perspective may be in order.
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AL House, AL Senate, Legislative Dispatch, Uncategorized | By John Merrill on May 24, 2011 As you know, a very important piece of legislation will be presented for our consideration in the House tomorrow in Montgomery – Senate Bill 310 – the “Students First” tenure and fair dismissal reform bill. Like me, many House members have been inundated with phone calls and emails from opponents of this bill, and some have been [...]
Legislative Dispatch | By Cam Ward on May 17, 2011 There are a lot of issues to debate before we begin the final days of this session. In fact, I am quite certain there will be some comments on this post debating many of them. Before we get into the last seven day of the session I wanted to bring up a topic that [...]
Legislative Dispatch | |
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