Byrne Tops New Independent Poll

Posted by Hilary, on May 24th, 2010, at 10:43 am

Daily Kos commissioned an Alabama gubernatorial poll through Research 2000 and released its findings this morning.

In the Republican Primary:

  • Bradley Byrne: 29
  • Roy Moore: 23
  • Tim James: 17
  • Robert Bentley: 9
  • Bill Johnson: 3
  • Other: 2
  • Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

In the Democratic Primary:

  • Artur Davis: 41
  • Ron Sparks: 33
  • Other: 8
  • Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

Continue reading “Byrne Tops New Independent Poll”

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Wait, what?

Posted by Hilary, on May 1st, 2010, at 11:52 am

While Republican gubernatorial hopeful Tim James is taking the “English-only” spotlight, candidate questionnaire responses available at the Eagle Forum of Alabama show how much strong support the issue has garnered.

Notably, every statewide candidate who sent the form back to Eagle Forum as of this morning support English-only driver’s license exams:  Robert Bentley, James, Bill Johnson, Roy Moore, Kay Ivey, Gene Ponder, Troy King, George C. Wallace, Jr., and Beth Chapman.  James clearly isn’t a renegade, right?

But wait a minute.

The questionnaire asks if candidates “agree” or “disagree” with this statement:

State officials should enforce the Alabama Constitutional Amendment requiring that driver’s license exams be given in English only.

It’s hard to disagree with anything following “State officials should enforce the Alabama Constitutional Amendment requiring…”  Well, sure, let’s enforce the law.  But I don’t know which amendment the Forum is pointing to in the question. I assume it’s this one, found at our legislature’s website:

Continue reading “Wait, what?”

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The Power of Babel

Posted by Hilary, on April 30th, 2010, at 8:43 am

In light of all the discussion surrounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim James‘ “Language” tv ad, I thought I’d take a tip from the comments (thanks, Anon) and add this to the palaver:

Another Republican gubernatorial candidate, Bill Johnson, provides Google translation buttons on his campaign website for twelve languages: Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hebrew, Hindi, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portugese, Russian and Spanish.

Johnson also flaunts his international bona fides:

Johnson’s travels to nearly 50 countries have given him a unique understanding of working with other cultures. Being fluent in Spanish and having completed an intensive German language program will be a tremendous asset in economic development and selling Alabama in what is an ever-increasing international marketplace.

Just some vis-a-vis for your mise en scene.

Continue reading “The Power of Babel”

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Candidates' Good and Bad News in the PPP Poll

Posted by Danny, on April 1st, 2010, at 1:59 pm

Traditional Theater MasksIf we take this week’s PPP poll numbers at face value, what good news and bad news can the candidates find in them?

Artur Davis

Good News: He still leads in the race for the nomination, despite that the poll could not have come at a worse time for his primary #’s to be affected negatively by his position on the health care bill.

Bad News: Apparently his stance on health care reform has cost him support for the Democratic nomination, and there is no indication in the PPP poll that it gives him a leg up over Sparks in the general election matchups.

Ron Sparks

Good News: In the general election matchups, Sparks polls closer to each Republican than Davis does.

Bad News: Still a lot of ground to make up to secure the nomination.

Bradley Byrne

Good News: What’s not good? He leads in polling for the GOP nomination, and he leads in head-to-head matchups with both Davis and Sparks.

Bad News: James and Bentley are still so undefined that it is hard to consider Byrne’s support solid.

Roy Moore

Good News: Moore has done almost no campaigning, he has skipped forums, he hasn’t been on TV, and with that, he’s still polling at 23%, just a few points behind front-runner Byrne who is at 27%.

Bad News: He’s got tremendous name ID and most people have likely made up their mind about him. How will he grow support? Bentley or James could nudge him out of run-off.

Robert Bentley

Good News: Dark horse has grown his numbers.

Bad News: Still a long climb to make it into a run-off and has to hold off James too.

Tim James

Good News: Definitely room to grow with Moore voters if he can convince them that he is the electable option.

Bad News: His biggest primary competitor for social conservatives is Moore, and Moore has a sturdy lead despite virtually no effort on his part.

Bill Johnson

Good News: Well… Kay Ivey is out of the race, and her supporters will go somewhere.

Bad News: No indication from his numbers that his campaign is connecting with anyone.

_____

I enjoy being able to turn to people who think about matters like these professionally. From one, I received this.

Considering the Democrats’ primary…

On the surface these numbers are troubling for Davis. They show he’s not running away with the race and the healthcare vote and ensuing coverage did at least some temporary damage.

But even at this possible low ebb, Davis is still roughly breaking even with whites (29% Davis / 33% Sparks) and leading black voters 2:1 (48% Davis / 23% Sparks). If this is reflective of what happens in the primary, then Davis will win with room to spare.

Davis’ calculation has always been that it takes some short-term heartburn among the base to remain viable in the general election. And he is certainly getting some blowback from the base. The silver lining is that he has eight weeks for the Democratic primary electorate to settle down and focus on other issues, and since healthcare ultimately passed it’s easier to imagine primary voters getting over his apostasy than if it had failed.

And while Davis has seen some erosion in his vote, Sparks is still in the mid 20s – which is where polls have had him for months. Davis’ erosion has not yet become Sparks’ gain. Sparks certainly could benefit, but those voters could also slide back into the Davis column once the healthcare vote falls off the radar. Given Davis’ expected financial advantage, Sparks still needs some breaks to keep the fundamental advantages Davis has enjoyed over the past months from reasserting themselves.

On the Republican side…

Definitely good news for Bradley Byrne. It’s not a surprise that Moore is in the top tier of candidates, but James and Bentley are making efforts to break into that top tier. James and (presumably) Bentley – plus Byrne – are still unknown to a majority of the primary electorate so there is still room for them to grow their support.

Moore’s numbers are a disappointment. The conventional wisdom (that Moore’s campaign embraced) was that Moore started the race with a big lead, and his name-ID and loyalty with the GOP base virtually guaranteed him enough of the primary vote to get into a runoff. The PPP poll showed that Moore’s current support is only in the low 20s – and that’s with the other candidates still being unknown to a big chunk of the primary electorate. I’d assume that as Bentley, James, Byrne continue to gain name-ID that Moore’s vote will continue to soften.

If these numbers are to be believed, Byrne’s big lead over everyone but Moore and the ability to expand his vote among the 60% who don’t know him put him on the inside track to make a runoff. James and Bentley have to hope for continued erosion in Moore’s support to open the door for them, or they have to pro-actively take votes away from Byrne and Moore through negative ads.

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Considering General Election Poll #'s for Governor's Race

Posted by Danny, on March 31st, 2010, at 12:32 pm

Business GraphPublic Policy Polling has released the rest of the results from their Alabama polling this week.

Some observations:

  • Only Bradley Byrne, Ron Sparks, and Roy Moore had favorability ratings that were a match or near match to their unfavorability ratings.
  • Even Governor Bob Riley’s approval rating was easily lower than his disapproval rating (36 to 50). To what else other than his handling of the gambling issue would you attribute such a drop? SurveyUSA had his approval/disapproval rating at 56/39 in December.
  • The highest unfavorability ratings belong to Artur Davis (35%) and Roy Moore (34%). Tom Jensen points out that these are the only two candidates that a majority of voters have formed an opinion about.
  • Democrats Artur Davis and Ron Sparks polled about the same in head to head matchups (30′s) against each Republican.
  • Republican candidates Robert Bentley and Bill Johnson were not included in the poll – presumably to cut down on respondent fatigue. If you add questions on their favorability ratings and head-to-head matchups with Davis and Sparks, then that’s six more questions you are asking respondents to hang in there for.

I asked an Alabama political insider with campaign experience to look at the numbers for us, and this is what I got.

The Alabama electorate appears to be angry. Governor Riley has long been one of the most popular governors in the country, but his numbers are upside down and half of voters disapprove of the job he’s doing. And none of the candidates for governor have a net-favorable rating. This is probably a combination of economic anxiety, displeasure with the President and Congress, and frustration at the state government which is mired in bingo battles while unemployment reaches 13%.

Clearly Byrne looks the strongest of any of the Republican candidates. But all of the Republicans lead both Davis and Sparks, showing Republicans have a fundamental advantage at this point. As any serious observer of Alabama politics knows, the most critical number in a poll like this is where the Democratic candidates are with white voters. One assumes any Democrat will run up the score with African Americans, but a Democrat needs to take approximately 38% of the white vote to win statewide.

Davis’ share of the white vote ranges from 21% against Byrne to 28% against Moore. And Sparks runs at almost identical clip (21% of the white vote against Byrne / 29% of the vote against Moore). Either Democratic candidate has a lot of ground to make up, but peeling off an extra 10-15 points of the white vote is not insurmountable.

The odds certainly favor a Republican to be the state’s next governor, but Democrats can hope that after healthcare saturation wanes, the GOP primary goes negative, and the governor’s race becomes more about the two candidates than a reaction to the national environment – that either Davis or Sparks can start growing their white support and make this race start to look more competitive.

What do you see in the numbers?

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By Joe Hubbard on June 8, 2011

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Putting Students First

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By Cam Ward on May 17, 2011

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