See also the AL - 05 Big List.
Welcome to the AL - 02 Big List.
This list has been an attempt to keep up with everyone in either political party who has been credibly mentioned (in public or private) as a potential candidate for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District since Rep. Terry Everett (R - Rehobeth) announced that he will not run for re-election.
Both parties’ qualifying period ended April 4, 2008. Three Democrats and six Republicans qualified for the primary race, and they are listed below. The primary is June 3.
The Political Parlor will update the Alabama Line (found in the sidebar) for the race, though perhaps not as fast as you like since input from a wide array of people is sought.
| Democrats |
Republicans |
IN
Bobby Bright, Montgomery Mayor
Cendie Crawley, Dentist, Troy native
Cheryl Sabel, Alabama NOW President
OUT
William Boyd, Montgomery Mayoral Candidate
Seth Hammett, Speaker of the House
Jimmy Holley, State Senator
Jimmy Lunsford, Troy Mayor
Gary McAliley, Pike/Coffee Co. DA
Wendell Mitchell, State Senator
Scott Ninesling
James Perdue, Crenshaw Co Probate Judge
Cooper Rutland, Union Springs Atty
Ron Sparks, Agricultural Commissioner
Terry Spicer, State Representative
Glen Zorn, former Florala Mayor
|
IN
David Grimes, State Representative
Jay Love, State Representative
John W. Martin, Retired Army (Dothan)
Craig Schmidtke, Dothan oral surgeon
Harri Anne Smith, State Senator
David Woods, President, WCOV-TV (Montgomery)
OUT
Greg Albritton, former state Representative
Wes Allen, former candidate for Auditor
Kenneth Boswell, Enterprise Mayor
Bobby Bright, Montgomery Mayor
Terry Butts, former Supreme Court Justice
Jim Byard, Prattville Mayor
Steve Clouse, State Representative
Mark Culver, Houston County Commissioner
Larry Dixon, State Senator
John Giles, former Christian Coalition of AL President
Jack Hawkins, Troy Univ. Chancellor
Jimmy Holley, State Senator
Tim James, Greenville businessman
Troy King, Attorney General
Ben Lewis, State Representative
Barry Mask, State Representative
Charles Nailen, Dothan businessman
Steve Pelham, former Everett staffer
Jim Sullivan, PSC President
George Wallace, Jr., former PSC Commissioner
Dot Waller, Autauga County Bd. of Ed.
Greg Wren, State Representative
|
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Gilley just cant keep that big ole country mouth shut. YeeHaw! Now he AND George Jones look like complete asses. Too bad cause I do like me some Possum.
Comment by Anonymous — July 24, 2008 @ 8:24 am
Democrats keep bringing up the seat in Lousianna as hope that they’ll win this seat in November. But has anyone noticed whats happened over there in the past month? The GOP recruited State Senator Dr Bill Cassidy to run and black State Rep Michael Jackson(D) filed to run as an independent in November. A poll released the other day shows Cassidy up by 3 over Cazayoux. So it looks like that win by the dems was a fluke.
Comment by dan t — July 23, 2008 @ 10:18 am
I am sure Love could have beaten Smith by a much wider margin if they had not taken their foot off her neck. Smith continued to attack Love in the last 5 days with negative mail and the Gilley ads. Love stayed on the high road. Smith and Beason are done. The only option for Beason is to run for higher office and then is assured to be done permanently.
Comment by Anonymous — July 22, 2008 @ 2:14 pm
1876:
If Beason is sooooooo good and effective, terrific, and remarkable then why in the world didn’t Smith hire him when she first started running and not wait till she got in such a big hole after June 3rd? The way you make it sound, Smith would have won the election on June 3rd and a runoff wouldn’t have been needed because of the great Beason. This logic makes Smith seem very foolish for not hiring him at the start and if that’s the case then Smith wasn’t the woman for the job.
Comment by Anonymous — July 22, 2008 @ 11:54 am
The post about Beason just before this one is laughable. He did a terrific job in a short time. He’s a very effective political fighter. If he had another week, Love loses and given that Love’s own polls showed him up 60-32 after the primary that’s remarkable.
Comment by Anonymous — July 22, 2008 @ 11:18 am
A lot of chatter about Smith and Beason. Smith’s political career is over. Beason may get a primary challenge after the damage he and his boys did in the 2nd Congressional District. 2010 should be an interesting year. The Beason & Co memo that MH posted is more CYA on their part.
Comment by Anonymous — July 21, 2008 @ 8:12 pm
Alabama usually votes republican as a whole,so,if everyone just pulls the hammer down on one side in the elctions,Love would benefit from it.
Comment by WGL 2 Live Crew — July 21, 2008 @ 10:07 am
MH: “It’s pathetic that the local media hasn’t reported on the fact that Smith really rallied the voters of her district much more effectively than did Love in his home district.”
Maybe the local media is smart enough to realize that’s a moot point. Since Smith LOST the runoff, her “effectiveness” really wasn’t all that “successful”…(crickets chirping)….
Perhaps if Smith asks Love nicely, he’ll find a spot for her talents on his staff, someplace where she can be “effective”. I’m sure she wants the best for her fellow party member and he was gracious toward her in his victory speech.
Comment by Carlton Daniels — July 21, 2008 @ 12:22 am
Anonymous: “What is pathetic is that you didn’t mention Smith’s and Beason’s last desperate attempt to divide the north and south parts of the district, Civil War style,on the threatened closing of the bases, Ft. Rucker and Maxwell. That is what brought the Wiregrass out.”
I agree. As I posted earlier, the scare-tactic claims that “Love is for Maxwell while Smith is for Rucker” were absurd. Maxwell AIR FORCE Base and Fort Rucker an ARMY Base have little to ‘fear’ from one another since they’re both two different service branches with widely diverse missions. The fact that they’re about 70 miles apart is significant as well.
I don’t know that it was so much that Smith said that Love wouldn’t fight for Rucker if elected as it was anti-Love pundits. I do know that Love has a very definitive statement on his website supporting BOTH Maxwell and Rucker…whereas I don’t recall Smith having anything supportive about Maxwell on her website. That said, I think it’s likely either candidate would fight hardest for the military installation in his/her own backyard if it ever came down to having to ‘make a choice’…but again, that’s an unrealistic scenario and one that did not merit attempts to vilify/demonize Love on that non-issue.
Anonymous: “Montgomery usually votes party, and the Wiregrass votes for their neighbor.”
There’s a lot of truth in that.
Comment by Carlton Daniels — July 21, 2008 @ 12:15 am
I live in Montgomery and I love paying 10% sales tax on everything except one day a year. Now Bobby Bright might not be directly responsible for this raping tax, but he sure did pitch a fit when a Walmart and Home Depot opened just outside eastern city limits and only 6.5% sales tax is being charged in those two stores.
Comment by Ta Ta Toothy — July 20, 2008 @ 7:40 pm
What is pathetic is that you didn’t mention Smith’s and Beason’s last desperate attempt to divide the north and south parts of the district, Civil War style,on the threatened closing of the bases, Ft. Rucker and Maxwell. That is what brought the Wiregrass out. In the primary, there was a field of 6. Smith barely pulled it out. Most were voting anti Smith instead of another candidate. Scare tactics by Smith brought the people out. However, I do believe Bright will do well in the Wiregrass. But, Montgomery usually votes party, and the Wiregrass votes for their neighbor.
Comment by Anonymous — July 20, 2008 @ 7:18 pm
It’s pathetic that the local media hasn’t reported on the fact that Smith really rallied the voters of her district much more effectively than did Love in his home district. The following is an anlysis about the runoff that was written by a Deomcratic pundit, and is circulating the Internet like wildfire (I’ve recieved THREE copies of it in the last 24 hours!)…I wonder why the local media didn’t write up a comparable analysis. I guess it shows how ineffective the local media is at writing an unbiased report. I apologize for the length of the post, but it is a very good report, and desrves to be made public.
——————————
Alabama Second Congressional District
Post Republican Runoff
July 15, 2008
Results from the Republican runoff of July 15, 2008 between Rep. Jay Love of Montgomery and Senator Harri Anne Smith of Slocomb gives some insight as to how the November election between Love and Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright may play out.
One thing is certain—the Wiregrass region of this district definitely wants a candidate they can relate to.
This was demonstrated in the runoff when Houston, Coffee and Geneva counties turned out more votes on July 15 than they did for the June 3 primary.
This turnout decidedly favored Harri Anne Smith. She got 6,166 of her primary total from these counties, but boosted this to 11,878 (93% increase) in the runoff. On the other hand, Love got 3,718 votes in these counties in June and 5,758 in July, an increase of 55%.
Smith’s strongest showing came in Coffee County which she narrowly lost to Love in the primary (1,091 to 1,067). But she more than doubled her runoff vote here, getting 2,442, while Love only picked up an additional 635 votes.
Smith’s showing between June 3 and July 15 was far more impressive than Love’s.
After a somewhat lackluster primary campaign in which she ran a distant second, Smith energized her effort and voters throughout the southeast corner of the district.
This is best illustrated by looking at the base for both Smith and Love.
Smith’s base counties were Geneva, Coffee, Dale, Henry and Houston, while Love’s were Montgomery, Elmore and Autauga.
These two regions were almost bookends on June 3 with Smith’s base having a total of 23,241 votes while Love’s base had 24,202.
But during the six weeks of the runoff, voters in Smith’s region realized their back was against the wall and turnout there was 23,277 on July 15, an increase of 31 votes. On the other hand, Love’s base went from 24,202 to 17,054, a decrease of 30% and a clear signal that he failed to excite his own voters and that Smith’s ads were taking their toll.
This is also shown by the fact that while Smith increased her vote from 8,506 in her base in the primary to 15,459 in the runoff, Love only boosted his base vote from 11,763 to 13,398. That’s a difference of 82% to 14%.
One therefore must ask what happened to Love in the runoff?
Though he has been elected twice to the state House of Representatives, Love can not be considered a seasoned politician.
His strong primary showing may have given him something of a false sense of security. He may have been suffering from infatuation over the fact that he was “anointed” by the national GOP during the runoff and considered the runoff a formality.
He may have misjudged Senator Smith and her willingness to make adjustments and come out swinging in the runoff. And it is a certainty that he did not understand the intense desire of the southeast corner of the district to have someone representing them in Washington who understands and can relate to their challenges and issues.
So what does this all mean come November?
With both Democrat Bright and Republican Love from Montgomery, it means the candidate who can connect best to the Wiregrass will have a decided advantage.
One has to give the nod to Bright in this case.
A native of Dale County, Bright has roots in the Wiregrass. This will play well in November.
In addition to this, Bright appears to have several advantages over Love. One being that he has far more political experience. His defeat of longtime Montgomery Mayor Emory Folmar in 1999 was an upset of major proportions. He has been re-elected twice since, both times by substantial margins.
(Bright’s wife Lynn is a retired Montgomery County District Court Judge and brings a substantial amount of political experience to his team.)
While Love is generally a “backbencher” in a Democratically controlled House with no major legislative accomplishments, Bright can point to his experience as being the chief elected official of the state’s capital city. He can point to his experience in dealing with budgets, economic development, education and the rebirth of downtown Montgomery.
Bright also has the advantage of being able to relate well to the more than 80 mayors throughout the district, many of whom have a keen interest in who represents them in Washington.
To date, Love’s campaign has focused on the tried and true GOP moral messages, not bread and butter ones.
But in an election season where gas and grocery prices are increasing daily, where the state’s unemployment rate continues to inch upwards and where housing foreclosures and bank instability are standard fare on the evening news,
voters in Alabama’s Second District are much more likely to focus on their pocketbooks than who will be dealing with Nancy Pelosi next January.
The “Obama factor” could also play to Bright’s advantage in a district where 30% of the population is black. If the Presidential candidacy of Obama energizes black voter turnout, this could be meaningful to Bright, especially in Bullock, Lowndes, Butler, Barbour and Conecuh counties.
Bright will win Montgomery County in November given the fact that much of the western, more-Republican sections are in the Third Congressional District. This is borne out by results from the 2006 General Election where Democrats ran substantially better in the CD 2 portion of Montgomery County than they did in the rest of the district.
Love will likely win Autauga and Elmore counties. However, given that in CD 2, voting strength for Montgomery County is equal to Autauga and Elmore combined, this means Bright and Love could come out of the north end of the district in a virtual dead heat.
Which means that while the Wiregrass may not be able to put one of their own in Congress, they may well be the deciding factor.
Comment by MH — July 20, 2008 @ 4:40 pm
Where is the last comment?
Comment by Anonymous — July 18, 2008 @ 9:06 pm
Big win for capitalism on Tuesday, eh? Now we can finally take on the neo-Bolsheviks in Washington.
Comment by Thomas Jefferson — July 18, 2008 @ 12:39 pm
As for Schmitke, I hope he doesn’t jeapordize his future with his association with Gilley. I’ve known his wife’s family for years, and they are not about disharmony. They are good people !!!!
I have known the family for quite some time also. Schmitke knows a good thing when he see’s one, therefore his support of Gilley and Country Crossing. I wouldn’t worry about Craigs future. He is a very bright man.
Comment by Anonymous — July 18, 2008 @ 10:04 am
Bright will not have anything to do with Gilley. He came down to Dothan when CC was announced and rallied against the gambling aspect of it. Love and Bright are both against the expansion of casino style gambling, period. Doesn’t matter though, this is not a congressional issue so Gilley should leave well enough alone if he is able to subdue his ego long enough. Interestingly enough, there is a story in print tomorrow about a delay in closing on the property for CC. What a shock…
Comment by Anonymous — July 17, 2008 @ 10:20 pm
Just noticed on WGL, ” Totally Disallusioned with Love and Bright,” that someone purported to be Ronnie Gilley is suggesting a write in campaign for Schmitke.He’s suggesting raising funds for this.
Congratulations Bobby Bright and Jay Love. Yesterday, I think Gilley was saying Bobby Bright is the man. I truly hope that neither gives him the time of day.
As for Schmitke, I hope he doesn’t jeapordize his future with his association with Gilley. I’ve known his wife’s family for years, and they are not about disharmony. They are good people !!!!
Comment by Anonymous — July 17, 2008 @ 8:38 pm
#1860
OLIVE BRANCH,
I don’t think the posters on this forum need an education in who’s throwing the temper tantrum except maybe Gilley and his friends who sound like thugs. Your name sounds familiar…ummmm…maybe connected to InTheKnow? If so, go see if you can post on WGL without so many of your posts being deleted for namecalling and rudeness. On another note, don’t tell me to shut up. Put yourself with the other thugs on board. I KNOW Jay love is not fanning this. He is a true gentlemen who has taken all this crap without firing back a shot. See who won, didn’t you? People know class.
Comment by Anonymous — July 17, 2008 @ 6:50 pm
Helen be one of the hommies over yonder on the WGL forum.
Why you all dissin’ big momma?
Comment by WGL 2 Live Crew — July 17, 2008 @ 3:14 pm
If Gilley does not want to drag himself into politics as he says, and you guys say, then maybe all you folks shoule pack up and go back to wiregrass live. this is a political forum not a CC debate forum. I agree that Danny shold start a Governor 2010 big list - or are we too far out? Maybe after November, huh
Comment by Anonymous — July 17, 2008 @ 9:41 am