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ATTENTION - IMPORTANT NOTICE: On November 19, 2006, this blog changed platforms. You are looking at an archived page from the old version of the site. Please do not link to this outdated page, but instead link to the corresponding page on the new version of the site. All posts and comments have been ported to the new site whose home address is still http://www.politicalparlor.net. If you have any questions or encounter any problems, please email me at the link in the top right. Thank you!
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2006 Alabama Election Resources
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Saturday 11/18/2006 DAILY NEWS DIGEST
http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1163845296130680.xml&coll=2 - Prosecutors characterize juror actions as "improper," but dispute that it was sufficient to warrant a new trial in Siegelman case.
http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1163844987130680.xml&coll=2 - Sen. Jabo Waggoner (R-Vestavia Hills) vows to continue efforts to improve regional cooperation.
http://www.al.com/business/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/business/1163845177130680.xml&coll=2 - State's unemployment rate falls to record low.
http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/1163845333131950.xml&coll=3 - Folsom vows transparency in his term as lt. governor.
http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/1163844981131950.xml&coll=3 - Discussion underway on proposed Senate leadership.
http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/1163845230131950.xml&coll=3 - 100 volunteers spend night on the streets in an effort to highlight homelessness in Mobile area.
http://www.al.com/opinion/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1163845261131950.xml&coll=3 - Press-Register says legislators should follow Riley's mandate to cut taxes.
http://www.mountaineagle.com/NF/omf/eagle/news_story.html?rkey=0102622+cr=gdn - Ken Guin becomes the longest serving House Majority Leader in state history.
http://www.annistonstar.com/opinion/2006/as-columns-1117-jevanscol-6k16t0639.htm - The Rev. Jim Evans offers an open letter to Gov. Riley.
Friday, November 17, 2006
Top Ten Election Winners: #10
Every election gives us winners and losers, but some are a little more noteworthy than others. The Political Parlor presents a a start on the Top Ten Winners of the Alabama Elections.#10 Rep. Jeremy Oden (R - Vinemont)Rep. Jeremy Oden, a former seminarian, youth pastor, and a GOP Legislator of the Year honoree, looked vulnerable as he finished his second term in House District 11. The word is that he is too close to the House Speaker for the tastes of the House GOP leadership.
He faced an opponent in the Republican primary, David Ozment, who was endorsed by both ALFA and the Business Council of Alabama. Many predicted that Oden would be in trouble and would be in a run-off if not defeated outright.
Challenger Ozment raised more money than Oden did (even though incumbents typically do not have trouble raising more money than their challengers) including sizable donations from the PACs of BCA and ALFA. Oden loaned his campaign $15,000 and secured $8,000 more in loans to remain competive financially. AEA's A-VOTE PAC jumped in with a late $10,000 donation to Oden's campaign.
ALFA endorsed thirteen legislative candidates who were not incumbents in the primary races (including run-offs), and they finished an impressive 10-3. One of the three losses was Ozment, as Oden dispatched him by a 54%-36% margin with no run-off.
His opponent for the general election, Democrat Jim Boyd, spent more money campaigning for the general election after the June primary (over $100,000) than Oden raised all year for both campaigns (almost $82,000 combined for primary and general elections). The Democrat Boyd's largest PAC contribution came from ALFA's PAC (i.e., ELECT).
Neither House Speaker Hammett nor interests like AEA appeared to target this potentially vulnerable Republican seat. (For example, Hammett disbursed tens of thousands of dollars at a time from his own warchest to some individual campaigns, but not to Oden's opponent, and AEA's A-VOTE contributed to Oden's primary campaign.) That suggests that they hope Oden is or will be sympathetic to their interests. GOP House Minority Leader Mike Hubbard may have attempted to build a bridge with his $3000 contribution to Oden's fall campaign.
An odd aside: In a profile on the Oden/Boyd race, the Decatur Daily reported that Oden "did not respond to THE DAILY’s repeated requests for an interview." Why would that be?
Despite his fundraising disadvantage and his perceived vulnerability, Oden won re-election to a 3rd term by a 54%-46% margin.
Word on Today's Daily News Digest
Our buddy G had network difficulties this morning and was unable to send us a Daily News Digest for today. FYI, he may be able to send one by the end of the day.
Friday Fun - Google Trends
Google Trends lets you compare search volumes for multiple terms.
People are searching for "University of Alabama" on Google more than they are looking for "Auburn University.""auburn university"
"university of alab...
May your team win tomorrow. Unless, of course, your team is not my team.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Means Challenged
FWIW, this story about Sen. Larry Means (D - Attalla) has people's attention. The request to disqualify his election is based on his failure to file financial disclosure reports for the general election after the Sept. 7 Attorney General opinion said that even unopposed candidates must do so.
There is a similar suit to disqualify the candidacies of Democratic Senators Barron, Zeb Little, Bedford, and Sanders. A key difference appears to be that they did not file financial disclosure reports for the June primary election, before the AG opinion was issued that said unopposed candidates must file.
Top Ten Who Lost: #10
Every election has winners and losers of course, but some wins or losses are more significant than others. Without additional ado, the Political Parlor presents the first on a highly subjective list about the Alabama elections, the Top Ten Who Lost.#10 The Birmingham News
Jim Folsom's campaign tried to blunt potential damage by circulating a release challenging the accuracy of the numbers and even the motives of the News for publishing it. Actual results of the elections two days later indicate that Folsom's campaign was on to something; the News missed the numbers for the Democrats in the five races by an average of 11 points.
Race
R/DNews Poll #'s (%)
R/DElection Results (%)
R/DGovernor
Riley/Baxley59/31 58/42 Lt. Governor
Strange/Folsom50/39 49/51 Attorney General
King/Tyson51/33 53/47 Sec. of State
Chapman/Worley42/32 58/42 Chief Justice
Nabers/Cobb43/44 48/52
The fact that others recognized and challenged the mistakes immediately minimizes the likelihood that the poll was accurate at the time and that the election results reflected later shifts.
The potential damage for such a mistake is large. Such a story risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Instead of merely reporting the news, the story can create or at least influence the news. The potential for published poll results to influence an election is exactly why France does not allow poll results to be published in the week before an election. If accurate poll results are capable of influencing election results, think of the injustice made possible by the influence of a wildly inaccurate poll.
A commenter here correctly pointed out that The Birmingham News used the same pollster in 2002, and that he missed by double digits then too. On Sunday, Nov. 3, 2002, again just two days before the election, a Birmingham News story reported poll results for only the Governor's race:The survey of 600 registered voters who say they are likely to participate in Tuesday's election shows Riley leading Siegelman 47 percent to 39 percent. Eleven percent said they were undecided, and 3 percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate John Sophocleus. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
The final election results two days later actually had Siegelman 10 percentage points higher as he and Riley finished in a virtual tie at 49% each.
I have heard an unconfirmed rumor that as a result Birmingham News editor Tom Scarritt is now telling people that The Birmingham News is out of the polling business.
Cavanaugh May Have Competition
Twinkle Cavanaugh will seek another term and may have competition when the state GOP decides in February who will be state party chair for the next two year term.
Thursday 11/16/2006 DAILY NEWS DIGEST
http://www.al.com/opinion/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1163672104248550.xml&coll=2 - The Birmingham News praises decision by Hoover officials to continue bus service, but call for major overhaul of regions transit system.
http://www.al.com/opinion/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1163672566248370.xml&coll=1 - The Huntsville Times comments on the recent death of Rep. Albert Hall (D-Gurley) and his years of service to north Alabama.
http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1163672714248550.xml&coll=2 - Former first lady Martha Brewer dies.
http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061115/APN/611152189 - Governor says McInnes will remain as head of DOT in second term.
http://www.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/news/061116/soccer.shtml - This is the fourth article in a seven part series focusing on the growth of Hispanic population in Decatur.
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061116/OPINION01/611150370/1012/OPINION - The Montgomery Advertiser urges state Senate to replace Lowell Barron (D-Fyffe) as President Pro Tem.
http://politicalparlor.net/Sanders/Sanders1015.html - Weekly column of Sen. Hank Sanders detailing his activities for his constituents.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Organizing the Senate
On the hot topic of organizing the state Senate, everyone agrees, "It's fluid." Very fluid. What is true today about the likely makeup of a Senate majority may not be true tomorrow and probably wasn't true yesterday.
Phillip Rawls of AP has a good story pointing out that in 1998 and 2002, the Senate had similar struggles that were not resolved until just before the election for president pro tem.
One possibility I have heard floated is that Barron could take himself out of the leadership mix. If some of the dissident Democrats had differences with Barron that were more personal than political, his stepping aside would allow some of the dissidents to come back to the Democratic Senate majority with a different president pro tem.
The group also has to set the rules of the Senate for the next quadrennium. Last quadrennium the rules stipulated that 21 votes were needed to remove the president pro tem and establish a new one.
Here's an interesting what-if scenario... Theoretically, a hesitant Democratic senator might agree to caucus with the Republicans (with an 18-17 conservative majority) but only if the rules require only 18 votes to establish a new president pro tem in mid-term. If that senator became dissatisfied with the conservative majority, the senator could be the swing vote to remove the president pro tem and establish a new caucus majority with the Democrats. Rules requiring only 18 votes to change the president pro tem would certainly keep him on a short leash.
Back in the real world, I think it more likely that the Senate will give Lt. Governor Folsom some of the organizing authority that the Senate had taken from the lt. governor in recent years and given to the president pro tem.
Wednesday 11/15/2006 DAILY NEWS DIGEST
http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/116358602957200.xml&coll=2 - Birmingham church's street ministry draws complaints from neighboring businesses and residents.
http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/116358697057200.xml&coll=2 - Hispanic Coalition of Alabama receives three-year grant from Casey Foundation.
http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/116358590057200.xml&coll=2 - New sales tax prompts effort to change city's form of government in Dothan.
http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/116358651057210.xml&coll=3 - Analysis of voting in Mobile and Baldwin counties showed Riley made in-roads among black voters.
http://www.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/news/061115/student.shtml - Third in a series of seven articles examining the impact on the growth of Hispanic population in Decatur.
http://www.gadsdentimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061115/NEWS/611150425/1137/NEWS - Challenge filed seeking to overturn reelection of Sen. Larry Means (D-Attala).
http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061114/APN/611142588 - GOP chair to seek another term, Democratic chair uncertain.
http://www.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/news/061115/support.shtml - Analysis of voting in minority districts of Birmingham and Black Belt shows GOP inroads among traditional Democratic voters.
http://www.annistonstar.com/opinion/2006/as-editorials-1115-editorial-6k14u2305.htm - The Anniston Star looks at election results to raise the question of how important to voters the issues of Christian Action Alabama (formerly the Christian Coalition of Alabama) are.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Tuesday 11/14/2006 DAILY NEWS DIGEST
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061114/NEWS02/611140324/1009 - Longtime lawmaker Rep. Albert Hall (D-Gurley) dies after short hospitalization.
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061114/NEWS02/611140322/1009 - Public safety director resigns, governor appoints secret service officer to vacancy.
http://www.al.com/opinion/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1163499392255040.xml&coll=2 - The Birmingham News praises DHR's candor in recent case involving the death of a child, but questions attempt by agency to discredit source of information.
http://www.al.com/opinion/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1163499537254490.xml&coll=1 - The Huntsville Times calls for governor and legislative leaders to work together to restructure tax system to help those at low income levels.
http://www.dailyhome.com/opinion/2006/dh-editorials-1114-0-6k13w3110.htm - DailyHome calls decision to terminate salary of former chancellor "overdue."
http://www.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/news/061114/flavor.shtml - Second in a five-part series detailing immigration issues in Decatur.
